Trying to explain why the Commanders are succeeding with Heinicke originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
How in the hell is Taylor Heinicke doing this?
It’s a question that’s bouncing around in the minds of those who are following the Commanders, a team that’s won five of its last six games (and four out of five with Heinicke as the starting quarterback).
Of course, a large portion of the answer is that, well, Heinicke isn’t all that responsible for many factors that are fueling Washington’s surge.
The defensive line’s insistence on living in opposing backfields, for example, has helped shut down foes as daunting as the Eagles and as dilapidated as the Texans.
The secondary’s improvement, the sharp uptick in forced turnovers and Brian Robinson Jr.’s return to action have all assisted, too.
Even Joey Slye, who’s suddenly decided that every kick of his will blast through the uprights, has to be credited.
But Heinicke, who’s led the huddle since Week 7 when Carson Wentz was sidelined with a finger injury, inevitably draws a lot of attention because of the position he plays and the personality he plays with. Therefore, now that much of the production around him has been accounted for, it’s worth posing once more.
How in the hell is Taylor Heinicke doing this?
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The numbers
On Monday, Ron Rivera was asked to assess what he likes about Heinicke’s presence in the lineup. His answer summed up the paradox of Heinicke quite well.
“There is a comfort level he has and a calmness about him in terms of the way he does things,” Rivera said. “It’s funny I say that because sometimes he looks like his hair is on fire because he’s so hyper.”
Before getting to the unquantifiable parts of the 29-year-old’s skill set, let’s first seek to parse where he’s been a calculable asset.
When comparing Heinicke to Wentz — who will back up Heinicke if/until a change is needed, Rivera told reporters following Week 11’s victory in Houston — one will find ample cancel-outs and similarities between the two.
Heinicke’s completion percentage of 60.8 is slightly lower than Wentz’s 62.1, but his yards-per-attempt average (7.0) outpaces his predecessor’s (6.4).
Their interception percentages, meanwhile, are basically even (Heinicke’s getting picked off on 2.7% of passes and Wentz was being intercepted on 2.6% of them) as are their traditional passer ratings (Heinicke’s at 81.8 and Wentz is at 84.1).
A couple of key differences, though, are revealed in sack percentage and Expected Points Added per dropback.
Heinicke — who’s more mobile and who’s undoubtedly benefitted from setting up behind a more cohesive offensive line; again, there are layers of context all over this thing — is taking a sack on 5.7% of his drops. Wentz, on the other hand, was suffering a sack on 9% of his.
For a unit that’s not built to thrive in lengthy down-and-distance spots, that’s a significant stat.
As for Heinicke’s EPA per dropback — a metric that measures how efficient an offense is when attempting to pass — it definitely isn’t sterling (he’s currently at -.028), but it is better than Wentz’s (who’s at -.08). To illustrate that gap, Heinicke’s closest neighbor in this area is Indy’s Matt Ryan (-.023), while Wentz’s is New York’s Zach Wilson (-.088).
Another useful aspect of Heinicke is the manner in which he’s leaning on Terry McLaurin, otherwise known as the Commanders’ best offensive weapon.
In appearances with Heinicke, McLaurin has been targeted eight, eight, nine, 11 and seven times, which comes out to an average of 8.6 per contest. With Wentz, McLaurin saw four, eight, nine, six, six and four targets, or an average of 6.2 per contest.
Whether it’s because he was still aiming to grasp the scheme, because he didn’t have McLaurin at OTAs or minicamp in the early offseason or any other reason/combination of reasons, Wentz wasn’t maximizing McLaurin’s abilities. Heinicke is showing no such hesitations.
The narrative
Heinicke’s intangibles, which can be labeled with related terms like swag, grit, attitude or aura, are impossible to ignore. In fact, they often lead the conversation when his name is mentioned.
“I mean, the dude is constantly going, and I think his teammates feed off of that energy, which has been a big plus,” Rivera explained Monday.
This is where it can be a bit frustrating to analyze Heinicke, thanks to the general lack of concrete clarity. Regardless, his makeup — hey, put that on the above list of terms! — and his backstory are galvanizing. He’s fiery (his fist pumps after touchdowns are elite) and he’s friendly (which isn’t by accident).
“One thing that I try and do is, when we do have an hour- or two-hour break in the locker room, I try and go talk to all those guys, whether it’s linebackers, DBs,” Heinicke said in a press conference last week. “I try and cut it up with everyone, develop those relationships and I think that goes a long way. That’s something I’m gonna continue to do.”
That isn’t to claim that Wentz doesn’t possess admirable qualities on his own. Remember, he broke his finger versus the Bears but finished that matchup before heading to injured reserve, and he organized a get-together over the summer to familiarize himself with his new peers.
However, Heinicke — who introduced himself to Washington with a pylon dive in the playoffs and is presently purchasing Air Jordan shoes for himself and other groups of players to celebrate victories — is the epitome of an athlete that’s easy to root for.
Lastly, Heinicke can be inexplicably lucky, to put it simply.
His first toss in the meeting with the Texans absolutely should’ve been snagged by a Houston safety — yet it ended up harmlessly trickling to the ground.
How about his 49-yard strike to Samuel in the loss to the Vikings? You know, the one where three Minnesota defensive backs circled under it, only for one to crash into a referee, the other two to miss out on a gift and Samuel to emerge with the ball in his hands?
Those are the moments where it’s easy to wonder how much longer Heinicke can hold onto the top job, especially with the more physically imposing Wentz healing up by the day. They also add to Heinicke’s mystique.
“I don’t want him to lose his stinger,” coordinator Scott Turner said recently about Heinicke. “That’s why everybody loves him.”
What if?
As mentioned, Wentz will soon be healthy and available, and while Rivera tabbed Heinicke as his guy going forward, that declaration was by no means permanent. One exceedingly poor outing from Heinicke will cause many to argue for Wentz’s return, a switch that some are already pushing for.
The thinking goes that Wentz — with his bigger frame, bigger arm and, yes, bigger contract — could operate better than Heinicke now that the offense has settled into a solid identity. Wentz can hand it off a bunch to Robinson and Antonio Gibson, after all, would be more relaxed behind the stouter O-line and should be more confident in the system because he’s had weeks to closely study it.
But, as Robert Griffin III said during a chat with 106.7 The Fan’s Sports Junkies on Monday, Wentz might also inadvertently interrupt the crew’s flow due to his theoretically higher potential. Griffin’s opinion is that, because Heinicke is less talented, Rivera and Turner aren’t tempted to ask a lot of him.
“It’s not that they’re trying to protect Taylor, it’s that they just understand that he doesn’t have the same skill set or the same upside as Carson,” Griffin said. “So you have to run the football and run the football effectively.”
Nonetheless, all discussions about Wentz are, at least for now, hypothetical. Instead, Heinicke will remain in place as the starter.
Overall, it’s a title he’s partly earned by performance, partly earned by approach and partly earned by merely watching sections of the Commanders flourish without any influence. And he’s intent on cherishing it.
“It’s very special to me,” he said at the podium after the Texans game. “I just want to keep this thing rolling.”
