By Rich Johnson, WTOP News
WASHINGTON — Brace yourself for no big surprises Tuesday when Virginia Republicans and Democrats decide who they want to represent their parties in the November Presidential election.
A new poll from Monmouth University — which was released Thursday ahead of the GOP debate — gives Donald Trump a commanding lead in Virginia: 41 percent of likely GOP voters say they back Trump, compared to 25 percent for Marco Rubio, 14 percent for Ted Cruz, 7 percent for John Kasich and 7 percent for Ben Carson.
Hillary Clinton nearly doubles up Bernie Sanders in the Monmouth poll, with 60 percent of the Democratic support compared to 33 percent for Sanders.
While the outcomes may be clear, the stakes are high — especially for Republicans.
For Trump, the commonwealth offers a chance to show that his nearly 46 percent win in the Nevada caucuses was no fluke for a candidate whose hard-core base has remained fairly steady at about 35 percent.
“Can he grow that 35 percent,” asks Dan Palazzolo, professor of political science at the University of Richmond. “Is Nevada’s big win an indication of times to come, or is it an outlier? I think we don’t know the answer to that yet. If he can press 40 percent in Virginia, that’s pretty impressive.”
One of Trump’s top challengers, Marco Rubio, needs Super Tuesday to yield something he’s yet to find: victory.
“You need to win somewhere. That’s the important thing,” says Geoffrey Skelley, political analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
“If [Rubio’s] going to win a primary on Super Tuesday, Virginia is the state he should target. It’s understandable then that he’s going to do four events on Sunday — all across the state, hitting every part of it,” he says.
“Obviously his campaign understands that Virginia is a state that is better suited for him than some of the others that are going on Super Tuesday,” Skelley adds.
Palazzolo agrees.
“Exceeding expectations will help Rubio, but winning the state would be a huge boost to his campaign,” he says.
It’s a boost that Rubio desperately needs — especially now that the senator from Florida is trailing Trump in his home state.
Florida’s primary is still two weeks away, but it’s crunchtime for Ted Cruz. The Texas Senator leads in his home state, but not by much.
“If Cruz can’t win Texas, then he’s got to make a decision about whether he stays in the race,” Palazzolo says.
And when it comes to the big picture for Republicans, Palazzolo is blunt: “Tuesday’s probably the last chance for any Republicans to become really competitive and slow down Trump’s momentum.”
“If Donald Trump continues to rack up wins across different types of states with this plurality that he has, he’s really going to be … imposing a choice on Republican voters” Palazzolo says.
