WASHINGTON — Thirty-seven years.
It seemed as if it would never happen, but last year, for the first time since Affirmed galloped to victories in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes, we had ourselves a Triple Crown winner.
Is it really possible that Nyquist, the heavy favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby, could accomplish what most of us thought was unthinkable a few years ago and repeat American Pharoah’s run from last year?
We’ll find out about the first step in the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Details:
Post time: 6:34 p.m.
Distance: 1 1/4 miles
Purse: $2 million
TV: NBC
If you’re heading up to Pimlico or Laurel in search of some action, here’s how I see it playing out:
WIN: Nyquist
Simply put, the undefeated 3-year-old hasn’t done much wrong coming into Saturday. One knock is that he wants to control the pace and wants to dominate over other horses. If someone gets in front of him, he’ll want to be in the mix, and you can’t win the Derby that way. It’s just his dynamic.
That being said, Nyquist is a very versatile horse and the champion thoroughbred can claim that he’s raced seven times at four different tracks in California, Kentucky and Florida and has landed in the winner’s circle every time. He’s also already beaten seven of the 19 competitors he’ll face this Saturday head-to-head.
PLACE: Outwork
No pun intended, of course (Editor’s Note: No?), but I believe Outwork will be outworked late in the Kentucky Derby to finish second, which is not a bad spot for the winner of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The conditions that day were quite muddy and I wish I could have seen him perform on a faster track, but Outwork would have been unbeaten in four starts if he did not come in second in the Tampa Derby. Plus, what does it say when his Hall of Fame Jockey John Velazquez picked this inexperienced horse to ride in that TB Derby over higher profile stablemate Destin because of his belief in Outwork’s potential?
I won’t go as far as former President Clinton in picking Outwork to win, but he should challenge Nyquist late and make for an exciting finish.
SHOW: Creator
The winner of this year’s Arkansas Derby, Creator is a solid closer who is bred for long distances. Although it took this horse six starts to finally get a win, one might think that his continuous improvement bodes well for his chances at Churchill Downs.
We still might not know exactly where his talent level is at, but Creator is dangerous and if he’s able to save his energy for the final 3/8ths or quarter mile, watch out!
If you bring $50 to the track with you this weekend, here’s how you can make some plays:
- $10 Straight Win — 15
- $2 Trifecta Box (Costs $12) — 13, 15, 3
- $1 Superfecta Box (Costs $24) — 13, 15, 3, 11
- $2 Exacta Box (Costs $4) — 13, 15
