By Week 17 in fantasy football, there’s no room for guessing. Depth charts have settled, tendencies are exposed and every decision carries championship weight. This week’s fantasy plays focus on players positioned to deliver — and the familiar names whose matchups make them too risky to trust when it matters most.
Quarterbacks
Start: Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers vs Miami
The Buccaneers are playing for their playoff lives in this one, so expect them to come out firing on all cylinders. With a full complement of pass catchers at his disposal and up against a top-10 QB matchup Dolphins squad, Mayfield is in a prime position to deliver for fantasy owners and Tampa fans alike.
Other locks:
— Brock Purdy vs Bears
— Drake Maye vs Jets
— Jacoby Brissett vs Bengals
Avoid: Justin Herbert, Chargers vs Texans
This is a spot where name value outweighs fantasy reality. Houston’s pass rush creates constant pressure, which has consistently caused problems for the Chargers’ offensive line. Herbert’s weekly ceiling has been capped in recent weeks by conservative play-calling and inconsistent red zone efficiency, outside of last week’s game versus Dallas, and the Texans are one of the better teams in the league at forcing underneath throws and limiting big plays. In championship week, you’re chasing upside — and Herbert simply doesn’t offer it here.
Running backs
Start: Omarion Hampton, Chargers vs Texans
Hampton has emerged as the Chargers’ most trusted early down back, and his workload has stabilized at exactly the right time. Houston’s run defense has been far more vulnerable between the tackles than through the air, making this a natural spot for Los Angeles to lean on the ground game. Hampton’s value isn’t flashy, but volume plus goal-line opportunity makes him a rock-solid RB2 with a realistic path to 18 to 22 touches.
Other locks:
— James Cook vs Eagles
— Travis Etienne vs Colts
— Chase Brown vs Cardinals
Avoid: Aaron Jones Sr., Vikings vs Lions
Jones’ fantasy value is heavily touchdown-dependent at this stage, and the Lions are one of the best teams in the league at limiting rushing scores. In a week where margins are thin, Jones carries far more downside than upside.
Wide receivers
Start: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins vs Buccaneers
This is the type of matchup where Waddle can tilt a fantasy championship. Tampa Bay’s secondary has struggled to defend speed receivers who can win quickly off the line and Waddle remains Miami’s most potent option when defenses prioritize stopping the run or shading coverage elsewhere. His weekly floor has been volatile, but the ceiling here is undeniable — and this game environment favors aggressive passing from both sides. The Dolphins will want to see what they have in quarterback Quinn Ewers, so I expect him to pass early and often.
Other locks:
— Tee Higgins vs Cardinals
— Jauan Jennings vs Bears
— CeeDee Lamb vs Commanders
Avoid: Terry McLaurin, Commanders vs Cowboys
The matchup is definitely not a problem, but who the Commanders will be starting under center certainly is. Josh Johnson, the third-string QB for Washington is scheduled to start, and even the Cowboys should be able to manage him efficiently.
Tight ends
Start: Hunter Henry, Patriots vs Jets
Henry has become a focal point of New England’s passing game, particularly in high-leverage and red zone situations. The Jets’ defense has allowed tight ends to work the middle of the field when outside receivers are taken away, and Henry’s route participation remains strong. While he may not have a huge game, the combination of steady targets and touchdown equity makes him a dependable TE1 in a volatile position.
Other locks:
— Trey McBride vs Bengals
— Juwan Johnson vs Titans
— Theo Johnson vs Raiders
Avoid: Mark Andrews, Ravens vs Packers
Andrews just hasn’t been the tight end we’ve come to know over the years for the past several weeks. He’s only gotten 50 or more yards in a game once this season, and it hasn’t happened since Week 3. Completely TD dependent, Andrews just doesn’t offer enough upside to roll with him.
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