Week 16 in fantasy football is where preparation beats panic. By now, roles are defined, tendencies are exposed and the difference between winning and going home often comes down to avoiding the wrong matchup rather than chasing the perfect one. These are the plays and fades that give you the clearest edge this week.
Quarterbacks
Start: J.J. McCarthy, Vikings vs. Giants
McCarthy draws one of the most forgiving matchups on the schedule. New York has struggled to generate pressure and has consistently allowed quarterbacks to operate comfortably from the pocket, and the Vikings are on a roll offensively after beating the Cowboys last week. With efficiency and touchdown equity both in play, McCarthy profiles as a strong Week 16 QB1.
Other locks:
— Jared Goff vs. Steelers
— C.J. Stroud vs. Raiders
— Josh Allen vs. Browns
Avoid: Matthew Stafford, Rams vs. Seahawks
Stafford’s ceiling takes a hit in Seattle. The Seahawks have consistently pressured pocket passers at home and forced offenses into shorter, lower-efficiency throws. Davante Adams aggravated his hamstring injury last week and may not play, possibly diminishing Stafford’s options in an already tough matchup. Up against a top-five QB defense, he’s a risky championship-week play.
Running backs
Start: Kareem Hunt, Chiefs vs. Titans
Hunt has settled into a reliable early down and goal-line role, and Kansas City continues to trust him in high-leverage situations. The Chiefs will trust him even more this week, as Patrick Mahomes is out for the season with a torn ACL. Gardner Minshew will start for the Chiefs, and expect him to lean heavily on the run game, meaning Hunt will get significant touches in this matchup with Tennessee.
Other locks:
— Bijan Robinson vs. Cardinals
— Kyren Williams vs. Seahawks
— Breece Hall vs. Saints
Avoid: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks vs. Rams
Walker’s workload remains intact, but the matchup is brutal. Los Angeles has been excellent at clogging interior lanes and limiting big runs. Walker has been less than reliable the past two weeks, finishing with just 29 and 17 yards on the ground in those games, and he faces the league’s top run defense this week. Find other options if you can.
Wide receivers
Start: Jayden Reed, Packers vs. Bears
Reed’s usage has gone up since his return in Week 14, tying for the team lead in targets (six) last week. With Christian Watson’s status unsure because of a chest injury and facing a bottom-10 Chicago secondary, Reed is primed to deliver this week.
Other locks:
— CeeDee Lamb vs. Chargers
— Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Steelers
— Nico Collins vs. Raiders
Avoid: Deebo Samuel, Commanders vs. Eagles
Samuel’s catches have dropped in each game since the Week 12 bye, and he hasn’t topped 45 yards in two weeks. Against a stout Philly secondary, and without Jayden Daniels under center, Samuel is a less than stellar option in these fantasy playoffs.
Tight ends
Start: Colby Parkinson, Rams vs. Seahawks
Parkinson has quietly carved out a meaningful role in the Rams offense, particularly in the red zone and on intermediate crossers. Seattle has allowed consistent production to tight ends who work behind linebackers, and Parkinson’s size makes him a natural scoring option. With usage trending up at the right time, he’s a sneaky but legitimate TE1 play in Week 16.
Other locks:
— Trey McBride vs. Falcons
— Juwan Johnson vs. Jets
— Theo Johnson vs. Vikings
Avoid: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys vs. Chargers
Ferguson’s four targets last week were his fewest since Week 8, resulting in his second-lowest yardage (16 yards) total of the season. Set to face a Chargers team that has defended TEs sufficiently all season, confidence in Ferguson’s ability to buoy your team in the fantasy playoffs is abysmally low.
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