Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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A Super Bowl rematch, another London game and a first-place showdown in the NFC North highlight Week 7 in the NFL.
There are six home underdogs, too.
The San Francisco 49ers (3-3) aren’t one of them, even though they’ll take on the undefeated two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (5-0).
The inconsistent 49ers are 1 1/2-point favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook.
Two struggling 1-5 teams face off across the pond when the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots meet. The Jaguars were routed by Chicago last week in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. They’ll move to Wembley Stadium to play the Patriots.
The Minnesota Vikings, the NFL’s other unbeaten team at 5-0, host the Detroit Lions (4-1) in an early battle for first place in the only division that features four winning teams.
Pro Picks aims to keep rolling after following up another winning week with a losing prediction in Thursday night’s game between the Broncos and Saints.
Tennessee at Buffalo
Line: Bills minus 9 1/2
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level and the offense just added wide receiver Amari Cooper so the only thing that can slow the Bills (4-2) this week is themselves on a short week after a Monday night win over the Jets. That’s unlikely against the woeful Titans (1-4). Tennessee’s defense is No. 1 in fewest yards allowed but the offense is next to last in yards and is averaging just 19.2 points per game.
BEST BET: BILLS: 30-17
Detroit at Minnesota
Line: Vikings minus 1 1/2
Jared Goff and the Lions (4-1) are rolling on offense. They’ve scored 89 points in the past two games but face a difficult task against Minnesota’s defense. Detroit’s defense stepped up last week in Dallas after a rough game against Seattle. Losing Aidan Hutchinson is a major blow, however. The Vikings (5-0) are looking to continue their momentum and maintain their hold on the NFC North following a bye. Sam Darnold had his least productive game so this will be an important bounce-back game. It’ll be tough for the Vikings to keep up with the Lions.
UPSET SPECIAL: LIONS: 24-23
New England vs. Jacksonville in London
Line: Jaguars minus 6
The Jaguars (1-5) have unraveled after starting the season with high expectations. Trevor Lawrence mentioned the team being “fragile” and safety Andre Cisco said players “quit” last week. They have too much talent to be this bad. The rebuilding Patriots (1-5) were supposed to be here but they have reason for optimism because rookie QB Drake Maye showed plenty of promise in his first start.
JAGUARS: 24-20
Seattle at Atlanta
Line: Falcons minus 3
The Seahawks (3-3) have lost three in a row after winning their first three games. The defense isn’t stopping the run and the offense is losing the turnover battle. Geno Smith leads the NFL with 1,778 yards passing but he’ll face a defense that’s ninth against the pass. The Falcons (4-2) have a multidimensional offense that can rely on Kirk Cousins throwing or Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier running or both. They could have a big day against Seattle.
FALCONS: 26-21
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Line: Bengals minus 5 1/2
Joe Burrow and the Bengals (2-4) have no margin for error after another slow start. They’ve got to stack wins to have any shot at making the playoffs. The Browns (1-5) are in disarray and have the league’s worst offense behind Deshaun Watson. They’re the only team that hasn’t scored 20 points in a game or reached 300 yards.
BENGALS: 23-18
Houston at Green Bay
Line: Packers minus 2 1/2
C.J. Stroud and the Texans (5-1) aim for the team’s first four-game winning streak since 2018. Joe Mixon’s return boosted Houston’s run game. Will Anderson Jr. is coming off an incredible performance — three sacks, four tackles for loss — and could make things difficult for Jordan Love. The Packers (4-2) have held opponents to 19 points or fewer in their four wins and an opportunistic defense leads the NFL with 17 takeaways.
PACKERS: 26-23
Miami at Indianapolis
Line: Colts minus 3
The Dolphins (2-3) finally won a game without Tua Tagovailoa before a bye. Maybe they should’ve signed Joe Flacco in the offseason. He has completed 70% of his throws with five TD passes and one interception while leading the Colts (3-3) to two wins in three games. But Flacco is going back to the bench once Anthony Richardson returns from an oblique injury. Richardson was back at practice this week. Indianapolis needs running back Jonathan Taylor to return to take pressure off Richardson.
COLTS: 23-16
Philadelphia at New York Giants
Line: Eagles minus 3
Saquon Barkley faces his former team and the Eagles (3-2) try to build some momentum. Jalen Hurts has his receivers back and the offense looks better but still isn’t clicking. Making Barkley the focal point this week makes sense and also will open up the passing opportunities. Daniel Jones and the Giants (2-4) aren’t scoring enough points and will be missing stalwart left tackle Andrew Thomas. Maybe Philadelphia’s underachieving defensive line can take advantage.
EAGLES: 24-19
Las Vegas at Los Angeles Rams
Line: Rams minus 7
It’s rare to see a one-win team favored by a touchdown but the Rams (1-4) are in that spot. They’re coming off a bye and looking to get back on the winning track while the Raiders (2-4) celebrate off-field victories. Tom Brady’s bid to purchase a minority stake in the team got approved on the same day star wide receiver Davante Adams was traded to the Jets. Neither team is going anywhere but the Raiders have Maxx Crosby and he could wreck Matthew Stafford’s afternoon so this one should stay close.
RAMS: 20-17
Carolina at Washington
Line: Commanders minus 8 1/2
While Bryce Young watches Andy Dalton from the sideline for the Panthers (1-5), rookie QB Jayden Daniels has quickly displayed he’s the real deal in Washington. The Commanders (4-2) had won four in a row before battling Baltimore in a close loss. They’re facing a defense that’s given up 33.8 points per game.
COMMANDERS: 27-20
Kansas City at San Francisco
Line: 49ers minus 1 1/2
Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 21-4 coming off a bye in his career; 13-1 in Philadelphia and 8-3 in Kansas City. One of those losses came last year when the Eagles beat the Chiefs in Kansas City in a Super Bowl rematch.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-0) are unbeaten while playing far less than their best ball. The injury-filled 49ers (3-3) have been up and down so far. Still, they have the No. 2 pass offense behind Brock Purdy and No. 3 run offense despite missing Christian McCaffrey. Super Bowl champions are 6-3 in rematches the following season. The Niners need this one more.
49ERS: 26-23
New York Jets at Pittsburgh
Line: Jets minus 1 1/2
Davante Adams is expected to step in and play, a huge boost for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets (2-4). New York is a couple of missed field goals away from 4-2, but still hasn’t done enough to win close games. Russell Wilson could make his debut for the Steelers (4-2) even though Justin Fields has played well enough to win. Still, the Steelers are 28th in passing and 20th in scoring and Wilson has greater upside.
JETS: 20-16
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Line: Ravens minus 3 1/2
Lamar Jackson looks like a two-time NFL MVP and the Ravens (4-2) are back after an 0-2 start. Derrick Henry has turned Baltimore’s offense into a nightmare for defensive coordinators. Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles is one of the best at scheming ways to stop potent teams. Baker Mayfield is even more dangerous when the Buccaneers (4-2) run the ball successfully as they did in New Orleans.
RAVENS: 26-24
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona
Line: Chargers minus 1 1/2
Justin Herbert’s passing and J.K. Dobbins’ running have given the Chargers (3-2) a balanced offense and they’re playing Jim Harbaugh’s winning brand of ball. Harbaugh is 6-0 as a coach on “Monday Night Football.” Kyler Murray and the Cardinals (2-4) are a model of inconsistency, following up an upset over San Francisco with a lopsided loss to Green Bay. Jonathan Gannon’s defense is giving up too many yards (373.3) and points (27.2).
CHARGERS: 24-20
Last week: Straight up: 12-2. Against spread: 11-3.
Overall: Straight up: 62-30. Against spread: 52-38-2.
Thursday: Straight up: 5-1. Against spread: 4-2.
Monday: Straight up: 4-4. Against spread: 2-6.
Best Bet: Straight up: 4-2. Against spread: 4-2.
Upset Special: Straight up: 4-2. Against spread: 4-2.
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