SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (14-6)
EXPECTATIONS: After following up losses in the NFC title game in the 2021 and ’22 seasons with an overtime loss in the Super Bowl to Kansas City last season, anything short of the franchise’s long-awaited sixth Super Bowl title would be viewed as a disappointment. Coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad has done everything but win it all the last five seasons, having also lost the Super Bowl to the Chiefs in the 2019 season. The Niners have almost every key offensive player from last season back under contract again from last season’s unit that was one of the most productive in the game but need to resolve a contract dispute with All-Pro LT Trent Williams. The defense took a little step back last season, leading to the decision to fire coordinator Steve Wilks and promote Nick Sorensen. If Sorensen can get that unit back playing at a higher level, the Niners should have as good a chance as anyone to contend.
NEW FACES: DE Leonard Floyd, DT Maliek Collins, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, WR Ricky Pearsall, CB Renardo Green, OL Dominick Puni, LB De’Vondre Campbell, DT Jordan Elliott.
KEY LOSSES: Wilks, DL Arik Armstead, S Tashaun Gipson, DT Javon Kinlaw, QB Sam Darnold, DL Clelin Ferrell, DE Chase Young, DE Randy Gregory, TE Charlie Woerner, TE Ross Dwelley, CB Isaiah Oliver, LB Oren Burks, WR Ray-Ray McCloud, DB Logan Ryan, TE Brayden Willis.
STRENGTHS: No team has a collection of playmakers as good as the Niners after they signed star WR Brandon Aiyuk to a long-term deal. Reigning AP Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey leads the way at running back, with Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel at receiver and All-Pro tight end George Kittle. Brock Purdy ran the offense at a wildly efficient rate last year in his first full season as a starter and could be even better this year now that he know longer is rehabbing his injured throwing elbow. The back seven of the defense is also strong led by All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner and the team’s deepest group of cornerbacks in years led by Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir.
WEAKNESSES: The biggest questions for San Francisco might be in the trenches. The offensive line had issues last season outside of Williams, especially in the Super Bowl when the 49ers couldn’t pick up two key third-down blitzes late in the game. If Williams doesn’t end his holdout, the line will be full of questions with Jaylon Moore stepping in at LT. The only new starter this season likely will be third-round rookie RG Puni, who impressed during exhibition games but will have a tougher task in the regular season. The defensive line has been the strength of San Francisco’s defense for years but has much less depth this year and will miss Armstead’s presence in the middle. Floyd will need to provide a legitimate edge rushing threat across from Nick Bosa.
CAMP DEVELOPMENT: The biggest story in camp revolved around the contract disputes with Aiyuk and Williams. Aiyuk skipped the entire offseason program and didn’t practice all of camp before agreeing to a deal 11 days before the season opener. Williams spent the summer as a holdout back home in Texas and remains away from the team.
FANTASY PLAYER TO WATCH: McCaffrey was the top fantasy performer a year ago when he led the NFL with 2,023 yards from scrimmage and was tied for the league lead with 21 TDs. The Niners offense revolves around McCaffrey in both the running and passing games and he will continue to carry a heavy load. McCaffrey was slowed by a calf injury in camp, but should be healthy for the start of the season.
KEY STORYLINES: The biggest stories for the Niners in the regular season if they resolve their contract disputes will revolve around Sorensen and Purdy. San Francisco’s had issues in the regular season and was exposed at times in the playoffs, leading to the change in coordinator. Sorensen has never called plays at any level but has the respect of his players and has former head coach and DC Brandon Staley to help him as an assistant. Purdy led the NFL with a 113 passer rating and 9.6 yards per attempt last season when the last pick of the 2022 draft ended up as an MVP finalist. Another season with numbers close to those and Purdy could become one of the highest-paid QBs in the NFL next summer.
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BetMGM Sportsbook: Win Super Bowl: 6-1. Over/under wins: 11 1/2.
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