JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9-8)
EXPECTATIONS: Winning the AFC South and returning to the playoffs would be a step forward following last year’s late-season collapse. It might be needed to keep coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke off hot seats. The Jaguars started 8-3 before losing five of their final six games and missing the postseason after leading the division for two months. Pederson responded by firing most of his defensive staff and letting three veteran starters walk in free agency. Now, new coordinator Ryan Nielsen is tasked with finding a quick fix for a unit that features star pass rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker as well as standout CB Tyson Campbell. Baalke signed veteran DL Arik Armstead, CB Ronald Darby and S Darnell Savage to fill holes. On the other side of the ball, it’s all about keeping QB Trevor Lawrence upright and healthy. Lawrence was sacked a career-high 35 times and ended four games with injuries. The Jaguars are counting on veteran C Mitch Morse and LG Ezra Cleveland to improve a line that ranked among the worst in the league.
NEW FACES: Nielsen, Armstead, Darby, Savage, Morse, QB Mac Jones, WR Gabe Davis, WR Brian Thomas Jr., DE Trevis Gipson, DE Maason Smith, CB Jarrian Jones, PK Cam Little.
KEY LOSSES: WR Calvin Ridley, WR Zay Jones, CB Darious Williams, S Rayshawn Jenkins, KR Jamal Agnew, DT Foley Fatukasi, DE Dawuane Smoot, DE K’Lavon Chaisson, PK Brandon McManus.
STRENGTHS: Hines-Allen and Walker combined for 27½ sacks in 2023, and the Jaguars believe adding Armstead in free agency and getting DT DaVon Hamilton healthy will give them one of the most formidable fronts in the AFC. Hines-Allen signed a five-year, $141.25 million contract in April that includes up to $88 million guaranteed. Walker, meanwhile, will be eligible for a lucrative extension after this season. So the first overall pick in 2022 is essentially entering a contract year.
WEAKNESSES: The revamped offensive line is a clear question mark. The 32-year-old Morse made his lone Pro Bowl in 2022 with Buffalo, but he’s now trying to avoid Father Time with his third team in his 10th season. Scherff, also 32, has played through injuries and started every game the past two years in Jacksonville. But how much does the five-time Pro Bowl right guard have left? Morse signed a two-year deal in free agency, Scherff took a pay cut in exchange for a guaranteed salary and left tackle Cam Robinson, 28, is entering the final year of his contract and is counting nearly $22 million against the salary cap. None of the three is a long-term solution for Lawrence and the Jaguars.
CAMP DEVELOPMENT: Receivers Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington showed signs of being legit playmakers during training camp and the preseason. Thomas, the 23rd overall pick in the 2024 draft, has been Lawrence’s top target down the field. He finished the preseason with three receptions for 93 yards. Washington, a sixth-round selection in 2023, looks like more than a capable backup. He caught eight passes for 83 yards and a touchdown in the preseason and had a 73-yard kickoff return.
FANTASY PLAYER TO WATCH: Travis Etienne scored 12 times in 2023, including 11 touchdowns rushing. He averaged 3.8 yards a carry, down from his 5.1 yards in 2022. But the Jaguars expect their ground game to improve with a healthy and retooled line and the threat of a more vertical passes thanks to speedsters Thomas and Gabe Davis.
BetMGM Sportsbook: Win Super Bowl: 66-1. Over/under wins: 8 1/2.
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