The initial public offering market has made headlines in the first half of 2026 thanks to powerhouse IPOs like Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (ticker: SPCX), better known as SpaceX. But perhaps the bigger underlying story is the downward share-price movement after some big companies went public.
Take Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which is down more than 30% in the past month after going public on June 12, or Wealthfront Corp. (WLTH), with shares down 33% year to date, after its public debut in December 2025.
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“Across the VC-backed IPO universe (excluding life sciences), several newly public companies have delivered positive returns from their IPO price through June 30, 2026, while many others remain below issue price, underscoring the continued importance of company quality, sector exposure, valuation discipline and post-IPO earnings,” said data solutions firm Forge Global in a recent IPO review.
Out of 20 IPOs tracked by Forge that went public since the first quarter of 2025, seven had positive performance through the second quarter of 2026. “This pattern highlights a key point for late-stage private market investors: Strong IPO demand does not necessarily translate into durable public market performance,” the report noted.
The broader stock market has certainly posted good returns, with the S&P 500 up 9.7% in 2026. However, the choppy status of the IPO market bears watching for the second half of 2026.
“I’d describe the 2026 IPO market as healthy, but extremely uneven,” says Dean Ferraro, CEO and chief compliance officer at Longhouse Wealth Management. “The headline numbers look spectacular because a few enormous offerings, especially SpaceX, have driven a disproportionate amount of the capital raised.”
In the second quarter, 48 U.S. IPOs raised nearly $105 billion, but SpaceX alone accounted for $75 billion of that total. “That tells me investor appetite is real, particularly for AI, aerospace and other emerging technologies, but it is still highly selective,” Ferraro says.
That trend also shows the IPO market is open for compelling businesses, but investors are no longer giving every new listing a free pass. “Companies still need a credible growth story, a defensible competitive advantage and a valuation that leaves something on the table for public investors,” Ferraro adds.
The outsized role technology companies, especially artificial intelligence, are playing in the 2026 IPO market is also worth tracking.
“We just had the biggest IPO in history, and there’s more to come,” says Kyle Reidhead, co-owner and head of research at Milk Road, a stock market research platform. Reidhead noted that SpaceX opened at a valuation of just under $2 trillion, and he believes OpenAI and Anthropic will both probably garner above $1 trillion. “We’ve never had an IPO around a trillion before,” he adds. “As long as you’re in the AI space, the opportunity to IPO is huge. If you’re in other industries, you’re delaying, because capital is getting completely sucked out of that market and moving into AI.”
So which stocks stand tallest in a bull market for IPOs? Here’s a closer look at several recent big IPOs, along with a short list of potential supernovas that top the list for the second half of the year:
| RECENT/UPCOMING IPO | IPO INITIAL VALUATION/ESTIMATE |
| Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX; started trading June 12) | $1.8 trillion |
| OpenAI | $852 billion to $1 trillion |
| Anthropic | $965 billion to $1 trillion |
| Anduril Industries | $61 billion |
| Databricks | $188 billion |
| Jersey Mike’s Subs Inc. (JMKE) | $7.9 billion |
| Stripe | $159 billion |
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX)
SpaceX has already gone public, but it’s illustrative of the volatility of the current IPO market and, since it’s only launched public trading six weeks ago at a $1.77 trillion valuation, let’s start the list here. Its market capitalization stands around $1.5 trillion during volatile trading on midday July 22.
The company, founded in 2002 to curb the costs of space launches and pave the way to a self-sustaining colony on Mars, set an IPO price of $135 per share and opened trading at $150 on the Nasdaq on June 12. Yet performance has been anything but stellar, as it’s recently traded around 36% below its post-IPO peak, occasionally dipping below its initial $135 listing price. As of midday July 22, it was trading around $117.
“SpaceX clearly stands out because of the scale of the company and its position in satellite communications, launch services and aerospace,” Ferraro says. “However, its performance since the IPO is also a valuable reminder that an exceptional company is not automatically an exceptional investment at every price.”
Even SpaceX investors have, after taking stock of the company’s recent performance, taken measure of the company and determined it’s best viewed as a long-term play.
“We were fortunate to invest in SpaceX a long time ago, so we have watched the company evolve from primarily a launch business into a much broader infrastructure platform spanning launch, Starlink, connectivity and potentially AI infrastructure,” says Lu Zhang, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist and founder of Fusion Fund. “At the same time, its post-IPO volatility is a good reminder that even exceptional companies have to continuously prove execution once they enter the public market.”
Analysts still very much back the stock, with 18 of 23 market experts issuing a “buy” call with a consensus price target of $249. That suggests an upside of more than 100% for SPCX shares currently.
OpenAI
OpenAI is yet another technology heavyweight laying the groundwork for what could become Silicon Valley’s most consequential IPO since Facebook.
OpenAI confidentially submitted its draft S-1 paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission on June 8, marking the first formal step toward an initial public offering. However, the company is reportedly leaning toward delaying its public debut until 2027 to achieve a valuation of $1 trillion or more.
Market strategists say OpenAI is the most-watched IPO name that hasn’t moved yet, so the strategy to go public in 2027, given the AI giant’s high-profile status, makes sense.
If the assumption is that the world will use more AI next year than it does today, “the strong players have every reason to hold out for a bigger valuation before they announce,” Reidhead says.
“The pattern is obvious if you’re in AI, AI infrastructure, or frontier tech like space and robotics,” says Reidhead. “That’s where all the capital is flowing right now, and that’s where the next wave of IPOs will come from, especially the infrastructure layer: compute, energy and data centers.”
OpenAI is also competing with Anthropic on the global IPO stage, and that’s a compelling investment story in its own right. “OpenAI is the most-watched name that hasn’t moved yet, and the dynamic there is interesting,” says Brian Dorn, chief investment officer at Leelyn Smith, an Illinois-based financial advisory firm.
Anthropic appears to be moving faster toward a public offering, and if it gets there first, it should shape how the market prices the AI category, making it a compelling scenario for investors. “OpenAI could eventually become a standard in its own right, but we see more risk there than in Anthropic at this stage,” Dorn says. “That said, this race is far from over.”
Anthropic
Anthropic, creator of the Claude AI model, has emerged as a surprise heavyweight out of the artificial intelligence boom. The San Francisco-based company recently raised $65 billion at an approximately $965 billion valuation, surpassing OpenAI’s private-market valuation and becoming the world’s most valuable AI startup. Yet, with the accelerated enterprise adoption of Anthropic’s Claude models fueling powerful revenue growth, the AI titan is reportedly expected to target an IPO valuation of $1 trillion or more.
The company confidentially filed its draft registration statement for an IPO with the SEC on June 1. Since then, investment banks leading the deal have started scheduling investor meetings, representing a green light for the highly anticipated public debut, which could launch as early as October.
“Anthropic may become one of the most important IPOs to watch,” Ferraro says. “Before calling it a great investment, I’d want to see the public filing, particularly its revenue quality, customer concentration, compute commitments, cash burn, governance and path toward sustainable profitability. AI companies can grow tremendously while also consuming tremendous amounts of capital.”
Once Anthropic goes public, it may have a big advantage over rival OpenAI.
“Anthropic made the move of going after developers and code, and that was the move,” Reidhead says. “The big unlock for AI was that it can code better than anything else. ChatGPT had consumers, which is not really where you want to be. You want to be in enterprises and developers. Anthropic owned that and has basically crushed OpenAI.”
[Read: 7 Best Space Stocks and ETFs to Buy in 2026]
Anduril Industries
With the U.S.-Iran military conflict still progressing in fits and starts and the U.S. Department of Defense expected to spend $856 billion or more this year, Anduril Industries’ expected 2026 IPO could take advantage of the opportunity in the market.
Silicon Valley is already way ahead of the game on funding Anduril’s pre-IPO growth. Exhibit A is Andreessen Horowitz, a Valley venture funding firm founded by Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, which helped, in an April 2026 funding round, to raise an additional $5 billion for the autonomous weapons system and AI surveillance networking company, in partnership with Thrive Capital. The new funding, when it fills the pipeline, is expected to boost Anduril’s valuation to above $61 billion.
Anduril founder and CEO Palmer Luckey has indicated a preference for an IPO, noting in 2025 that Anduril is “definitely going to be a publicly traded company.” Potential investors may have some clarity by the second half of 2026. With $2.2 billion in 2025 revenues representing a roughly 120% growth rate from 2024, Anduril should be a big hit when it finally does go public.
Databricks
Long expected to go public in 2026, Databricks looks like it’s pushing back an IPO until 2027, citing too much market turmoil right now — if it goes public at all.
In a June 4 Bloomberg interview, Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi said that ideally, an IPO would create a market transaction mechanism for employees. “We will be a public company. I just think this is a terrible year to go public.”
While the company is considered fully “IPO-ready” in terms of its board structure and auditing, management is prioritizing private markets to avoid the volatility and disclosure requirements of a public listing in the current AI market. Yet Databricks is currently seeking investor capital for a reported $188 billion valuation, with Coatue Management frontrunning that funding round.
The Databricks Lakehouse Platform enables companies like Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (005930.KS), Comcast Corp. (CMCSA), Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) and Shell PLC (SHEL) to not only store and track data on one platform, but also train their own language models via a generative AI layer that’s built in. That capability stems from Databricks’ $1.3 billion purchase of MosaicML in 2023.
Databricks has the size, growth and AI exposure to attract public-market interest, but there are several caveats. “Databricks appears content to raise additional private capital rather than rush into an IPO,” Ferraro says.
The massive amount of private capital available in 2026 means companies like Anduril and Databricks no longer have to go public simply because they need money. “That can produce larger and more mature IPO candidates, but it can also allow private valuations to become very aggressive before everyday investors ever receive access,” Ferraro says.
Jersey Mike’s Subs Inc. (JMKE)
Jersey Mike’s, the Tinton Falls, New Jersey, sandwich chain, the second-largest in the U.S. behind Subway, is also counting down the days until it trades publicly under the stock symbol JMKE on the New York Stock Exchange.
The company just filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC to launch an initial public offering, targeting 43.5 million shares priced between $21 and $25 per share, and it has launched its IPO roadshow with trading expected to start July 30. It’s worth noting that private equity firm Blackstone Inc. (BX), which acquired a majority stake in the company in early 2025, will continue to hold voting power following the IPO launch.
“While most people are chasing AI stocks, which I don’t think will IPO in 2026, I’m going for something much more real-world in Jersey Mike’s,” says Vince Stanzione, CEO and founder of the stock market analysis firm First Information and author of “The Millionaire Dropout.” He adds, “They already have over 3,300 franchised outlets across the U.S. and will soon be expanding into new markets, including the U.K.”
Systemwide sales hit $4.3 billion in 2025, and adjusted EBITDA came in at $327 million, Stanzione notes. “That’s a very profitable franchise model, and at the top of the range the market cap will be roughly $8 billion,” Stanzione says.
Stripe
Stripe made big news on July 15, but it wasn’t about an IPO date. Instead, Stripe and private equity firm Advent put a cash offer of $60.50 per share, or $53.4 billion, to buy out PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL). PYPL shares rose over 15% after the report.
Stripe continues to bide its time regarding an IPO, with no concrete plans in sight despite plenty of background activity suggesting the company will go public sooner rather than later.
Founded in 2010 by Irish entrepreneurs Patrick and John Collison, the fintech company, headquartered in Dublin and San Francisco, has been the subject of IPO rumors dating back to 2021. At the time, cashless payments (Stripe’s bread and butter) skyrocketed during the COVID-19 pandemic, but lagged in 2022 and 2023. Since then, the timing hasn’t clicked for a Stripe IPO, but that financial growth suggests that scenario could change.
Earlier this year, Stripe initiated a tender offer for staffers and shareholders valuing the company at $159 billion. That figure is well ahead of fintech payment competitors like PayPal, which has a $49.2 billion market capitalization. Stripe’s industry payment volumes are up, as well, rising to $1.9 trillion in 2025. That’s 34% higher than in 2024, according to company officials.
Stripe is also expanding its geographic footprint, with 57% of its customer base comprising non-U.S. clients. Additionally, the company’s new business grew at a 50% clip from 2024 to 2025, spurred by AI payment technology deals with OpenAI and Microsoft.
Stripe co-founder John Collison stated in January 2026 that the company is “in no rush” to go public, while it continues to use already-upbeat tender offers to provide liquidity to employees.
How to Play the IPO Market for the Rest of 2026
If you’re looking to get into the IPO market, it’s time to get a good grip on a few things while doing your due diligence. For starters, experts recommend not confusing access to an IPO with access to a guaranteed good investment.
“IPO markets naturally create excitement, particularly around companies and technologies that investors have wanted access to for years,” Zhang says. “But the same investment discipline should apply before and after an IPO.”
Zhang advises looking beyond the first-day trading performance and understanding the underlying business: revenue quality, growth durability, margins, capital intensity, competitive moat and valuation: “For AI companies in particular, I’d pay close attention to whether revenue is scaling faster than compute and infrastructure costs.”
Additionally, there’s no law that says investors have to buy new shares on day one. “An IPO is the beginning of a company’s life in the public markets, not the end of the opportunity. Sometimes having patience and allowing the market to establish a price can be just as important as identifying the right company,” Zhang adds.
Other experts agree, adding that having some patience in a turbulent IPO market is critical for new company investors. “Look at the real numbers before you buy, not just the valuation headline,” says David Han, chief analyst and operator at AIStockWire.com. “SpaceX is a $2 trillion company on paper but lost $4.9 billion in 2025, and that loss got worse in the first quarter, not better. Don’t chase the first-day pop either; wait and see what happens once the lockup ends.”
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7 Best Recent and Upcoming IPOs in 2026 originally appeared on usnews.com
Update 07/22/26: This story was published at an earlier date and has been updated with new information.
