The initial public offering market has taken a step back for now, as geopolitical strife and unstable markets have created uncertainty, historically a momentum killer for upcoming IPOs.
That wasn’t the case before the last week of February, when the U.S. and Israel launched missile attacks on Iran that took out many of the Middle Eastern country’s military sites and its political leadership.
In January and most of February, institutional investors talked of a booming IPO market, fueled by robust issuer backlogs, a thriving stock market and high expectations of multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
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That sentiment diminished amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, especially with an oil crunch that saw per-barrel crude prices rise above $100, well over the $60 to $90 that oil markets usually experience. That could shift attitudes inside the Fed, as economists worry that rising energy prices might open the door for higher inflation. As of midday March 25, Brent crude prices hovered above $101 and West Texas Intermediate remained above $90.
Then there’s artificial intelligence, which remains a huge influence on IPOs, even as the Iran war steals the headlines.
“Unlike prior IPO waves, this year’s mega-listings are not diversified bets across sectors,” says Igor Pejic, a technology industry strategist and author of “Tech Money: A Guide to the New Game of Technology Investing.” He adds, “The dominant assumption is that whoever raises the most capital will build the best chips, train the best models and ultimately capture winner-take-all economics. In this narrative, capex itself becomes the moat.” But, Pejic counters, this assumption is far more fragile than markets appreciate.
“Recent developments highlight how quickly AI economics can shift,” he says. “Google’s latest custom chip strategy, favoring specialized ASICs over traditional GPUs championed by Nvidia, signals potential leaps in efficiency that could undercut the capital-intensity thesis.” Pejic adds that Anthropic has already announced it would rent Google’s chips rather than buy its own.
“If AI compute becomes more commoditized, or if architectural innovation reduces the need for massive upfront investment, the valuation logic underpinning many of these IPOs could erode quickly,” he says.
Looking forward, IPO analysts expect a solid rebound for the sector in the second half of 2026, after the Middle East conflict cools. Recent buzz about a possible SpaceX IPO in March could also help turn the tide.
“Despite the recent market downturn as a result of rising oil prices, the third and fourth quarters are poised for a robust IPO market, including potentially the largest IPO in U.S. capital markets history for SpaceX,” says Ross Carmel, partner and securities attorney at New York-based Sichenzia Ross Ference Carmel LLP.
SpaceX, along with OpenAI and Anthropic, could result in three separate super-high-valuation IPOs, Carmel notes. “Not only will these deals lift the market in general, as a high tide lifts all boats, but it will provide hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidity to both the venture capitalists that have funded them and the secondary-market investors that purchased the shares in the private markets,” he says.
Carmel also expects to see other, smaller companies in the same industries or as suppliers to those industries. That list includes Lambda, Harvey and SambaNova Systems, which may be looking to time their own IPOs to “coincide shortly after SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI in order to attempt to catch the momentum,” he says.
For investors, this presents opportunity and risk in equal parts, especially with these eight IPOs widely expected to debut soon and generate the most buzz:
| UPCOMING IPO | IPO VALUATION ESTIMATE |
| SpaceX | $1.25 trillion to $1.75 trillion |
| Databricks | $134 billion |
| OpenAI | $730 billion to $1 trillion |
| Anthropic | $380 billion to $500 billion |
| Shein | $30 billion to $50 billion |
| Canva | $42 billion to $66 billion |
| Payward Inc. (Kraken) | $20 billion |
| Stripe | $159 billion |
SpaceX
This AI-powered aerospace company, famously founded by Elon Musk, looms over the entire IPO landscape right now. Market insiders say a public offering could reach or exceed a $1.75 trillion valuation, easily making it the largest IPO in U.S. history. That title is currently held by Saudi Arabian Oil Co., or Saudi Aramco (ticker: 2222.SR), which raised $25.6 billion to $29.4 billion in 2019.
No IPO date has been set, but SpaceX is planning to file IPO paperwork this week or next week, according to a recent report from The Information.
It’s not just about rockets. Musk has hinted that SpaceX’s growing AI ambitions, particularly in satellite data and communications, tie the company, and presumably its upcoming IPO, into the broader “AI infrastructure” investment theme that investors are looking for in 2026.
While geopolitical tensions and inflation fears remain background risks, the Starship V3 orbital test flight, currently eyeing an April window, could be the critical catalyst for a public listing. An IPO could also introduce new pressures for Musk and his company, as public shareholders will face greater scrutiny of the Starship program’s capital-intensive burn rate and the complexities of the founder’s multi-company governance.
Databricks
Databricks fits the bill as one of the most anticipated enterprise tech IPOs, reportedly valued at about $134 billion in private markets. The company’s Databricks Lakehouse Platform enables companies like Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (005930.KS), Comcast Corp. (CMCSA), Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) and Shell PLC (SHEL) to not only store and track data on one platform, but it also allows them to train their own language models via a generative AI layer that’s built into the Databricks platform, stemming from its $1.3 billion purchase of MosaicML in 2023.
Additionally, the company’s net revenue retention, above 140%, seems to be a strong indicator that customers are spending increasingly more on Databricks products. The company seems fiscally fit, recently reporting $5.4 billion in revenues with 65% year-over-year growth and generating free cash flow. Databricks also recently raised $5 billion in a successful funding round and secured an additional $2 billion in debt capacity in February, making it a prime candidate for an IPO in 2026.
OpenAI
OpenAI is one of the most closely tracked potential IPOs in the new-issue pipeline, but that comes with the territory when you’re one of the leading generative AI companies in the world. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman hasn’t shown his hand, but Wall Street expects the company to go public before the end of the year. Talk of a $1 trillion valuation injects excitement into the OpenAI IPO conversation, but don’t be surprised if the number clocks in lower ($730 billion is the most recent IPO call after a recent fundraising round), especially if computing costs rise or technology markets shift.
OpenAI also has friends in high places, with Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) recently agreeing to invest up to $100 billion in the AI giant over the next several years. In return, OpenAI will roll out 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems, comprising millions of GPUs to power OpenAI’s next-generation AI infrastructure. The first phase, valued at $100 billion, is targeted to come online in the second half of 2026 using Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform.
“We’ve been working closely with Nvidia since the early days of OpenAI,” says Greg Brockman, cofounder and president of OpenAI, said in a statement. “We’ve utilized their platform to create AI systems that hundreds of millions of people use every day. We’re excited to deploy 10 gigawatts of compute with Nvidia to push back the frontier of intelligence and scale the benefits of this technology to everyone.”
Those partnerships should come in handy, as some see a successful OpenAI IPO as critical to the company’s ability to fund “Project Stargate,” a massive data center expansion project essential for training next-generation models like GPT-6. As of the first quarter of 2026, the Stargate roadmap includes a phased $500 billion investment over four years and a joint venture with tech giants, including Microsoft Corp. (MSFT).
Anthropic
Anthropic, OpenAI’s closest rival, is also up for an IPO in 2026 and is expected to follow the same new-issue trajectory, with a debut in the fourth quarter. Users of prediction markets platform Polymark give an IPO in 2026 odds of 62%.
Focused on “constitutional AI” and safety-first systems, Anthropic is widely recognized for its Claude suite of large language models. Following a massive $30 billion funding round in February, the company’s private valuation has surged to $380 billion, setting the stage for an IPO target that could exceed $500 billion.
“Whether or not OpenAI or Anthropic goes public first, the initial mover will likely put pressure on the other to also IPO in order to tap public markets for much-needed capital at attractive valuations,” DataTrek cofounder Jessica Rabe noted in a late February research note. Kalshi shares the same sentiment, calling for Anthropic to beat OpenAI to the IPO finish line this year.
Market experts say Anthropic shares a common theme with SpaceX and OpenAI, aside from their high-profile brands. “The driver for each of these companies is growth in AI,” says Kyre Lahtinen, associate business professor at Wake Forest University. “Anthropic and OpenAI need capital to continue their aggressive expansion across both training new models and servicing users’ ever-growing demand for their existing chat and agentic AI products and services.”
While Anthropic is currently privately held, with access to its shares largely blocked for Main Street investors, KraneShares Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AGIX) offers indirect exposure to Anthropic, though company shares represent only 2.3% of the fund’s portfolio as of March 23.
Shein
This Singapore-based business-to-consumer fashion e-commerce platform is yet another IPO story involving delay and reassessment. While Wall Street still fully expects Shein to go public, there’s no specific schedule for that scenario. Economic policy may have triggered some of that IPO procrastination, with Shein and other Chinese retailers still reeling from tariffs and trade wars as U.S. President Donald Trump targets Far East companies. It’s not only Uncle Sam, as the European Union has opened an investigation into Shein’s product sales.
What Shein has going in its favor are robust pricing powers and a proven ability to curb costs.
“Shein is one of the most interesting IPOs expected this year,” says Alex Tsepaev, chief strategy officer of B2Prime Group. “It’s a cheap clothing and goods model that is growing very rapidly and already competing with Amazon and Temu.”
While Shein is having some difficulties launching in the U.S., a Hong Kong IPO is expected at a valuation of $30 billion to $50 billion. The company reportedly filed confidential paperwork with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) in late 2025, though the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission remains a key hurdle.
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Canva
Canva may be more of a long-term play for IPO investors, as it waits out a sluggish market for software stocks right now. You can’t blame Canva, Australia’s largest private technology company, when the benchmark S&P North American Technology Software Index is down 23.7% year to date.
Canva certainly passes muster on the IPO-attraction front, with a creative business model that lets novice users design templates for books, social media, blogs and video casts without having to bring on a professional graphic designer. Currently valued at $42 billion with a bull case of $66 billion, the company’s annual recurring revenue has soared 35% to $4 billion, with 265 million monthly active users and 500,000 customer teams, including teams for corporate brands such as American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), Intel Corp. (INTC) and Salesforce Inc. (CRM).
The primary long-term threat to the company is that software design, at least at the high level at which Canva operates, is threatened by AI tools that may someday have software design outcomes that are less expensive and faster to produce.
Payward Inc. (Kraken)
This cryptocurrency platform is also slowing its roll on a first-quarter IPO, mostly due to sour conditions in the crypto markets. Payward, Kraken’s parent company, had filed an S-1 with U.S. regulators in November 2025, aiming to open its IPO in the first or second quarter of 2026.
Back in November, Kraken’s valuation had settled at $20 billion after it raised $800 million in new funds. Now it seems Kraken will wait things out until the cryptocurrency market improves. In the meantime, the company can focus on the dirt-and-shovel work that comes with any IPO, including meeting compliance standards, boosting revenue and improving operations.
Company leaders were hoping to ride the 2025 crypto wave when new IPOs like Circle and Gemini helped fuel $14.6 billion in new-issue revenue. An IPO may still happen, but it’s unlikely until the second half of 2026, as the entire cryptocurrency market’s value has fallen from $3.2 trillion to $2.4 trillion so far this year.
Stripe
This long-awaited fintech IPO is gaining some momentum in 2026, with a recent tender offer for staffers and shareholders valuing the company at $159 billion. Payment volumes are up, as well, rising to $1.9 trillion in 2025. That’s 34% higher than in 2024, company officials reported.
Stripe is also expanding its geographic footprint, with 57% of its customer base comprising non-U.S. clients. Additionally, the company’s new business grew at a 50% clip from 2024 to 2025, spurred by AI payment technology deals with OpenAI and Microsoft.
There’s no specific IPO date, as Stripe co-founder John Collison stated in January 2026 that the company is “in no rush” to go public, while it continues to use already-upbeat tender offers to provide liquidity to employees.
Say “Hello” to a Different IPO Cycle
While the early pipeline shows plenty of promise, this IPO cycle looks very different from past ones, as some headliners go to the sidelines while key issues like the Iran conflict, continued trade toxicity and sluggish market sectors like software and cryptocurrencies slow the new-issue market in the first quarter of 2026.
“The 2026 IPO market picture is so far undefined,” says John Murillo, chief business officer with B2Broker, a global fintech solutions provider for financial institutions. “The activity on it, at first glance, looks subdued, as we’re observing a sluggish start.”
Murillo notes that more than 800 unicorns are in what he calls an “IPO training camp,” with everyone eagerly waiting for SpaceX or Anthropic to bridge the gap between private hype and real, public activity. “Moreover, it would be wise to pay attention to the health care and industrial sectors as well,” he adds. “Many companies there have already filed their S-1 applications and are just waiting for more favorable macroeconomic conditions.”
Currently, many companies are hesitant to start hoping that interest rates will eventually go down. “While the IPO market hasn’t imploded, and I don’t think it will, it has become more selective,” Murillo says. “Some people believe that favorable conditions could boost issuance up to $160 billion, but the capital is waiting for more certainty. Increasingly, investors today pay more attention to issues like margins, cash flow stability and businesses with durable models.”
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8 Best Upcoming IPOs in 2026 originally appeared on usnews.com
Update 03/25/26: This story was published at an earlier date and has been updated with new information.
