Banking in 2025 resembled a year on the Florida coast.
Much of the first half of the year remained calm, quiet and balmy, with consumers enjoying steady, relatively high yields on their certificates of deposit and savings accounts, and few major bank deals to shake up the overall landscape. Sure, the tranquility was briefly interrupted in May by a blockbuster merger between Capital One and Discover, but like spring break at Daytona Beach, that excitement had been expected.
Summer heated up with anticipation of interest rate cuts and more potential mergers. Cryptocurrency picked up traction with some institutions, bolstered in part by new legislation in July.
And then September hit like a hurricane. The Federal Reserve trimmed its benchmark interest rate, the first of three quarter-point cuts to close out the year, sending yields on deposit accounts lower. A group of super regional banks announced a flurry of major acquisitions, buying up other midsize institutions as they try to expand their footprint, strengthen their technological capabilities and avoid being left behind when the consolidation dust settles. Many of those same banks doubled down on plans to also build hundreds of new branches in desirable markets.
Of course, some banking trends remained constant throughout the year.
Consumers and banks alike continued their persistent battle against increasingly sophisticated scams and fraud, as AI-savvy criminals refined their schemes that have led to significant jumps in fraud losses for Americans. Institutions ramped up their investments in technology, aiming to tighten security and also appeal to their digital-first customers.
So what’s in store for 2026? We asked observers and experts what they foresee happening in the coming year.
[See: Best High-Yield Savings Accounts: Up to 4.57% APY]
Interest Rates
No matter the year or the circumstances, anticipating the direction of interest rates can be “a challenging and often humbling task,” says Peter Phillips, senior vice president and chief investment officer at Washington Trust Wealth Management, who writes a quarterly economic outlook.
However, this year is shaping up to be especially unpredictable.
After repeated attempts to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates, President Donald Trump is now poised to appoint a new Fed chair who will replace Jerome Powell in May. The labor market is also showing signs of softening, with November’s 4.6% unemployment rate marking the highest figure in four years. Those factors would perhaps signal future rate cuts. However, inflation sits around 2.7%, remaining stubbornly entrenched above the Fed’s 2% target.
The federal funds rate currently is in a target range of 3.5% and 3.75%.
“My viewpoint is that interest rates are likely to move lower in 2026,” says Phillips.
He points to three key factors that suggest rates may continue to fall in the coming year: Fed policy, inflation and economic growth. Futures markets — often a strong indicator of coming Fed decisions — suggest the Fed may make two additional quarter-point cuts this year, he notes. Although inflation is higher than the Fed’s target, Phillips says the impact of tariffs appears to be minor, and trends he’s seeing indicate that pricing on services such as housing and health care are moderating, which could point to lower inflation numbers in the future. Finally, he says estimates point to a slight slowdown in gross domestic product growth, which could encourage the Fed to shave rates.
If that forecast holds true, Phillips says savers may want to lock in rates on longer-term CDs and other fixed-income options.
“It may make sense to extend maturities of fixed-income investments,” he says. “That is, seek longer maturities to lock in higher rates. I would also expect consumers to enjoy more attractive auto and home mortgage financing rates in 2026.”
[Read: Best CD Rates.]
Mergers, Acquisitions and Banks on the Move
The Trump administration was generally expected to be more open to consolidation, but banks weren’t particularly active during the first half of 2025. Then came the third quarter, which saw a flood of 52 deals, marking the highest number since 2021, according to S&P Global Intelligence data. This included some megadeals, such as Fifth Third‘s announced acquisition of Comerica Bank, PNC Bank‘s purchase of FirstBank and Huntington Bank‘s deal to buy Cadence Bank.
Those familiar with the mergers environment believe the fast pace of deals will continue this year.
“I think that the administration is more favorable towards consolidation, and I think that the environment will be more ripe for consolidation in 2026 with lower rates,” says Max Friar, founder and managing partner of Calder Capital, a mergers and acquisitions advisory firm. “We’ve seen some stress on some of the regional banks, and I think those same pressures are going to exist. Being bigger is probably easier.”
Large regional banks are in a tricky spot. Facing pressure from shareholders to grow, increased competition from fintechs and a need to invest heavily in technology, they essentially either need to become buyers or sellers.
“You’re going to see more of a separation of winners and losers going forward,” says Phil Bruno, chief strategy and growth officer at ACI Worldwide, which provides digital payments software to banks and merchants.
Through mergers, regional banks can expand their geographic footprint into attractive markets faster than they would by building new branches. (Although the most active banks are adding branches as well.) Bruno says he sees these banks targeting expansion at the “micro-market level,” where they move aggressively into specific metro areas. For example, PNC says its acquisition of FirstBank makes it the No. 1 bank in the Denver area, and the bank also has plans to build 35 branches in Nashville, Tennessee. Other banks on the offensive have targeted Texas metros as well as other growing cities in the Southeast.
Banks also use these deals to strengthen their position in certain service areas, such as wealth management or commercial lending.
Bruno says institutions with higher stock valuations and revenue growth are generally in a stronger position to buy, since that stock price can serve as currency for the deal. Some examples of banks he sees that fit that bill include Capital One, Fifth Third and PNC Bank.
“Those are the institutions that are going to have the firepower to be able to do those kinds of mergers because of the price of their stock,” he says.
For consumers, all this movement can mean there’s a greater chance that your bank gets bought out, which can be an inconvenience.
“It always impacts you when you have to switch institutions,” says Bruno. “But I do think that the customer is going to benefit from all this investment and is going to benefit from an increase in competition.”
Scams and Fraud
Banks often refer to fraudsters and scammers as “bad actors.” Well, their acting is getting alarmingly better thanks to AI.
Criminals are often using AI and other tech tools to mimic bank communications, spoof phone numbers, clone voices and more.
Americans reported losing $12.5 billion to fraud in 2024, according to the most recent FTC data. That marks a 25% increase from the previous year. By comparison, in 2018 that number was $1.5 billion.
Banking experts say they expect scams to become more elaborate and effective in 2026.
“Financial fraud isn’t new, but scammers exploit new technologies and methods of communicating to find new ways to trick you,” says Anna Dosen, U.S. Bank’s branch banking market leader for Minnesota and North Dakota.
Dosen says she expects scams involving crypto, QR codes and AI-powered calls and texts to continue to rise in 2026. The crypto scams often develop over time, as the con artist establishes a supposed relationship with the victim and then convinces them to invest through a fake platform.
Scams that begin with fake texts or calls are by now relatively familiar to many Americans, but Dosen says fraudsters may start incorporating voice cloning more in 2026 to fool you into thinking it’s someone you know on the other line. She also expects an uptick in scams using QR codes, trying to take advantage of people who don’t pay close attention to what website those codes send them.
“Criminals are leveraging artificial intelligence to create highly convincing phishing attempts, deepfakes and other schemes that are increasingly difficult for consumers to detect,” says Darius Kingsley, managing director and head of consumer fraud and scam prevention at JPMorgan Chase.
While some scammers aim to trick you into transferring your money, other fraudsters will attempt to use AI to gain access to your bank account, says Ron Kerbs, founder and CEO of Kidas, which provides scam protection tools to financial institutions and other companies.
“Bank fraud will involve coordinating groups of AI bots guessing or brute-forcing customer information,” he says.
In this scenario, a criminal may begin by knowing one piece of your personal information that your bank may ask to identify you, such as the last four digits of your Social Security number, says Kerbs. That’s typically not enough to gain access to your account, but it’s a start. The fraudster then uses AI to search for other potential answers to follow-up security questions. Perhaps it’s a previous address or even a social media post about your favorite pet. Then, AI bots begin calling various branches of your institution, guessing answers and removing wrong ones until they finally get enough correct.
“It’s time-consuming to do it manually,” says Kerbs. “However, an army of bots can call different branches and companies to avoid being flagged, making it completely possible. It’s already happening now and will become much more common in 2026.”
Kingsley says Chase is rolling out security features that can help keep customers safe from scammers. For example, the bank will allow customers to designate a “trusted contact person” who can be notified of certain transactions on their account to help them avoid falling victim. He also encourages customers to take advantage of Chase’s fingerprint and face ID options on the bank’s mobile app to prevent unauthorized access.
“As scams continue to rise globally, consumers should expect extra verification steps during high-risk transactions and timely alerts that prompt customers to pause and review before proceeding,” says Kingsley.
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2026 Banking Predictions: What to Expect with Rates, Scams and More originally appeared on usnews.com
