As 2018 kicks off, workers find themselves at the intersection of three big trends. The economy is operating in their favor, experts say, while the Trump administration is not. And the #MeToo movement has applied acute pressure on employers to root out workplace sexual harassment.
Read more about the implications these forces and other trends will have in 2018:
Strong Economy Favors Workers
This might be a good time to ask for a raise.
Unemployment — at a scant 4.1 percent — is the lowest it’s been since 2000. That means there are fewer qualified applicants for job openings, and employers may need to boost salary offers to attract top talent and prevent good employees from considering better-paying positions elsewhere.
“We’re at the end of a sustained number of years of economic expansion,” says Joseph Rosenberg, senior research associate in the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. “This is about the time in a macroeconomic cycle when you would expect to see wage gains and wage pressure as firms look to hire and retain workers.”
Overall, industry employment is projected to grow 0.7 percent annually between 2016 and 2026, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s faster than the 0.5 percent rate of growth during the previous decade, during which the Great Recession depressed hiring.
Hiring prospects are looking especially good for health care aides, food preparation and serving workers, registered nurses and software developers. These careers are expected to add the most new jobs over the next decade.
[See: 12 Steps to Asking For a Raise and Getting It.]
Federal Policy Changes Favor Employers
Trump administration leaders have taken actions that favor employers over employees, and that trend is likely to continue in 2018, says Brian Balonick, labor and employment lawyer at firm Cozen O’Connor. Those include recent decisions by the National Labor Relations Board that make it harder for workers to unionize and bargain with employers.
Restaurant workers and other tipped employees should pay attention to a rule proposed by the Department of Labor that would cut regulations regarding tips, allowing tip pooling and permitting employers to pocket tips from workers who earn minimum wage.
The department is also considering issuing a new rule determining which workers qualify for overtime pay and protections. The Obama administration issued a rule that would have expanded benefits to full-time, salaried employees who make up to $47,476 a year — more than 4 million additional workers. But a judge struck down that decision. The Trump administration will appeal the ruling but will likely seek a lower salary threshold.
Meanwhile, during Trump’s tenure, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration lost 40 federal workplace safety inspectors as of Oct. 2, 2017, according to an investigation by NBC News. Some advocates worry the departures will leave workers more vulnerable to dangers on the job.
[See: Will Your Job Kill You?]
Other Policy Changes: Supporting Objectors and Requiring Work
There is one group of workers that has the full support of the Trump administration: health care employees who have religious objections.
The Department of Health and Human Services recently announced the creation of a Conscience and Religious Freedom Division, whose purpose is to protect the rights of workers who object to performing abortions or treating transgender people. And the administration is considering a regulation requiring health care providers that receive federal funding to certify they don’t force workers to act against their religious beliefs. Conservative Christian organizations lauded these announcements; Planned Parenthood, LGBTQ-rights organizations and medical groups criticized them.
Another federal policy change that alters the landscape for workers pertains to Medicaid. The administration recently announced it will allow states to require able-bodied adults to work or participate in job training in order to receive Medicaid health benefits. Ten states are definitely interested; Kentucky was the first to take advantage of the government’s offer to add work requirements.
Look for pushback against and legal challenges to this major change to the safety-net program, which enrolls more than 68 million low-income people.
“It is starting from the supposition that Medicaid recipients aren’t working or don’t want to work,” says Catherine K. Ruckelshaus, general counsel and program director at the National Employment Law Project, a nonprofit that advocates on behalf of low-wage workers and unemployed people. “That’s just not true. The ones who aren’t working often can’t work.”
Results of Tax Law Unclear
Supporters hailed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law at the end of 2017, as an economic stimulant sure to spur hiring. Critics lambasted it as a gift to corporations at the expense of working families. But what the big corporate tax cut will really mean for workers is still unclear, experts say.
Because the law gives companies incentives to bring assets back to the U.S., plus invest in new infrastructure and equipment here, it should “help boost wages and growth, and perhaps lead to new jobs being created,” says John Buhl, media relations manager for The Tax Foundation, a think tank some consider conservative.
Yet, he adds, “We would caution that judging the impact of the tax law is going to be a long-term process.” And any growth that does come may be short-lived anyway, economists say.
After the law passed, companies ranging from Apple to Walmart seized the spotlight by promising to pass money saved from slashed taxes on to employees in the form of bonuses or raised wages. But other companies told shareholders they — not workers — will be the main beneficiaries of the savings.
Regarding the bonuses, “maybe some of it is related to the tax bill, but it’s hard to disentangle the direct effect of the tax bill with what companies would have done anyway,” says Rosenberg, whose think tank, Tax Policy Center, some consider liberal.
Freelancers, independent contractors and self-employed workers may stand to benefit from the law, thanks to a new 20 percent deduction for “pass-through” businesses. This change could encourage more people to seek contract work as opposed to full-time jobs that pay traditional wages, according to Ruckelshaus. That concerns her, she says, because contract labor tends to preclude people from benefits and “carve workers out from worker and safety-net protections.”
Additionally, workers should look out for changes to their company commuter benefits. The tax law eliminated a deduction for businesses that helps cover employee transportation costs, so companies have less incentive now to offer this perk.
New Steps to Stop Sexual Harassment
In 2017, the #MeToo movement shed light on the widespread problem of sexual harassment. Although the first round of investigations snared mostly celebrities and politicians, in 2018, the movement “will trickle down to the workplace,” Balonick predicts: “I think there is going to continue to be a lot more sexual harassment cases.”
This year, companies will take more seriously their legal obligation to prevent and stop harassment, Balonick says, adopting the philosophy that “workplace conduct needs to be as important a factor as workplace productivity.” That will mean updating policies, “aggressively” training employees and managers and thoroughly investigating claims of inappropriate behavior.
Meanwhile, government officials are trying to dismantle the scaffolding of secrecy that surrounds sexual harassment cases. Proposals in Arizona and New York would render employer nondisclosure agreements void in regard to harassment. A bill in Congress, the Congressional Accountability Act of 1995 Reform Act, would bar legislators from using public funds to settle harassment claims and from requiring complainants to sign nondisclosure agreements.
[See: Be Thankful for These 6 Workplace Rights.]
States and Cities Raise Minimum Wages
On New Year’s Day, minimum wage increases took effect in 18 states and 20 cities and counties. By the end of 2018, several cities in Silicon Valley, plus San Francisco and a few other California cities, will have raised the local minimum wage to $15 an hour.
Look for more activity on the issue throughout the year, as campaigns are underway in at least 14 states and 3 cities, reports the National Employment Law Project.
Another trend to watch: “banning the box.” On Jan. 1, California became the 10th state to require employers to delay inquiries related to job applicants’ criminal conviction records until later in the hiring process. That’s good news for job seekers who have been involved with the justice system.
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The Outlook for Workers in 2018 originally appeared on usnews.com
