Snap Inc. (NYSE: SNAP) once again found a way to clutch failure from the jaws of victory. The company faced an IPO lockup expiration on July 31, that had Wall Street worried about a rush of selling as a horde of insiders were cleared to start trading their shares.
While SNAP stock did sell off initially, the stock stabilized, leaving many pundits wondering whether Snapchat’s parent had finally hit bottom.
The answer, of course, was that it hadn’t — Snap sold off the next couple of days and hit an all-time intra-day low below $12 on Thursday before finally starting to recover.
[Read: 5 of the Best Stocks to Buy for August.]
The stay of execution may only last until after Thursday’s market close, when Snap reports second-quarter earnings. Given the violent response to the company’s first report as a publicly traded company back in May, a similarly awful outing could have SNAP stock plumbing single digits by the end of the week.
The headline numbers. Wall Street expects Snap to record revenues of $189.2 million for its second quarter, up 26 percent from its first quarter of this year. However, while Wall Street expects an adjusted net loss of 14 cents per share, that figure won’t tell the full story.
Analysts were projecting a 20-cent loss for the first quarter when Snap dropped a $2.31-per-share deficit on their heads. That figure included nearly $2 billion in stock-based compensation — an issue that will continue in coming quarters, though to a lesser extent. Specifically, CFO Drew Vollero said in the first-quarter conference call that more than half of the company’s remaining $1.3 billion in restricted-stock expenses will hit the books across the rest of 2017.
Snap’s users, and how it’s using them. Expect profits to go mostly unnoticed, however. What will really matter is a combination of the top-line figure along with user count. Specifically, Wall Street wants assurances that Snapchat is not only adding users (a typical metric to watch for social media companies), but how the company is monetizing them.
On the user front, FactSet-polled analysts see Snap adding 10 million daily active users to reach 176.2 million for its second quarter. That would be up from 8 million DAU adds in the first quarter, and 5 million in the fourth quarter of last year. Unlike Facebook ( FB) and Twitter ( TWTR), Snap doesn’t even provide monthly active user counts.
While user growth is important on its own, in Snap’s case, it’s also being closely watched to see how effective Facebook’s game of “copycat” is going, as Mark Zuckerberg & Co. continues to copy Snapchat features and roll them out across Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger and even the core Facebook platform. For instance, Facebook in May officially rolled out “face filters,” which adds graphical elements like bunny ears or dog noses when taking selfies — a long-popular Snap feature called “lenses.”
Instagram’s giveaway of free sponsored lenses to advertisers was one of several worries Morgan Stanley’s Brian Nowak listed when he downgraded SNAP from “overweight” to “equal weight” in early July. While the recommendation translates to “neutral,” the note was decidedly bearish, including revenue and profit estimate cuts for 2017 and 2018 below Wall Street’s consensus, as well as lower DAU expectations.
[Read: Google Tests Publishing Tech Similar to Snapchat.]
Among his other concerns were lower ROI rates in Snap’s ad units, as well as a self-serve automated bidding platform that Nowak now doesn’t expect to scale until late this year or early 2018.
Morgan Stanley wasn’t the first or the last analyst with similar concerns. Citigroup said slow rollout of several features was slowing down “pace of growth in monetization” in June, and expects “modest” user growth, reducing DAU estimates to 9 million — below the current consensus view. Cowen’s John Blackledge downgraded SNAP stock a couple days after Morgan, citing a competitive digital ad environment and slow traction on newer ad monetization products.
While analysts do seem excited about several initiatives launched in the second quarter, a weak report seems inevitable given that most of them won’t bear fruit for at least a quarter or two.
However, one recent bullish development is worth noting — and no, it’s not the unconfirmed reports that Google parent Alphabet ( GOOG, GOOGL) reportedly offered $60 billion to buy Snap last year. No, it was last week’s report by money manager Jon Najarian, who saw unusually “massive” purchases of August calls essentially betting on at least a 15 percent jump in SNAP stock within the month.
More Earnings in Focus
Walt Disney Co. (DIS). Disney shares, while higher with 3 percent gains in 2017, are underperforming the market, and fiscal third-quarter earnings due out after Tuesday’s close are unlikely to help shareholders’ cause. Disney is expected to grow revenues by just 1.1 percent to $14.43 billion, while analysts think profits will shrink 4.3 percent to $1.56 per share. Disney faces a load of problems in the third quarter, such as tough comps against the year-ago period, which included blockbuster performances from “Captain America: Civil War,” “Finding Dory” and “The Jungle Book.” Analysts also believe that ESPN’s subscriber count continued to decline during the quarter, while Evercore’s Vijay Jayant says sports programming costs will spike thanks to a large portion of NBA fees hitting in the third quarter.
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA). Nvidia’s monster gains of 57 percent this year and its momentum of the past few months will be challenged Thursday evening when the chipmaker reports second-quarter results. SunTrust Robinson Humphrey’s William Stein upgraded NVDA stock from “hold to “buy” last month, in part because he believes that previous operational forecasts were simply too low. Analysts expect 37.3 percent top-line growth (to $1.96 billion) on 75 percent bottom-line growth to 70 cents per share. The primary worry here is how much NVDA will need to impress Wall Street to justify its increasingly sky-high valuations (NVDA stock has a forward price-earnings ratio of 47, and a price-sales ratio of 14.5).
This Week’s Earnings Calendar
Monday. Avis Budget Group ( CAR), CBS Corp. ( CBS), First Data Corp. ( FDC), LendingClub Corp. ( LC), Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. ( PAA), Twilio ( TWLO), Tyson Foods ( TSN)
Tuesday. Cheniere Energy ( LNG), Disney, Fossil Group ( FOSL), Hertz Global Holdings ( HTZ), Hostess Brands ( TWNK), Icahn Enterprises, L.P. ( IEP), Michael Kors Holdings ( KORS), Plug Power ( PLUG), Priceline Group ( PCLN), Ralph Lauren Corp. ( RL), Time ( TIME), TripAdvisor ( TRIP), TrueCar ( TRUE), Wayfair ( W), Zillow Group ( ZG)
Wednesday. Crocs ( CROX), Jack in the Box ( JACK), Mylan NV ( MYL), Office Depot ( ODP), Weibo Corp. ( WB), Wendy’s Co. ( WEN)
[See: 7 Best Mid-Cap Stocks to Buy Now.]
Thursday. Blue Apron Holdings ( APRN), Care.com ( CRCM), Kohl’s Corp. ( KSS), Macy’s ( M), News Corp. ( NWSA), Nordstrom ( JWN), Nvidia
Friday. J C Penney Co. ( JCP), Magna International ( MGA)
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Will Snap Inc. (NYSE: SNAP) Stock Shatter After Q2 Earnings? originally appeared on usnews.com