As the Russia investigations continue, there is no shortage of speculation about whether the investigation could at some point lead to formal impeachment charges against President Donald Trump. Even bookies like Ladbrokes and Paddy Power are accepting bets on the likelihood of it happening and when.
An event like that is bound to affect the stock market. Talk of impeachment is a reminder that strategies for weathering any market volatility, politically induced or not, are an important part of portfolio management.
At Paddy Power — which recently hired a “head of Trump betting” because of the interest in wagering on the 45th president — the probability of a Trump impeachment was at 33 percent when he took office, and has risen to as much as 60 percent recently. At the same point in President Barack Obama’s first term, the chance of impeachment was seen at less than 1 percent.
At Ladbrokes, oddsmakers have raised the chance that Trump will resign or be impeached from 25 percent in November to about 47 percent recently. “Ladbrokes didn’t even offer odds on Obama or Bush being impeached or resigning, which speaks volumes about the current president,” Ladbrokes spokeswoman Jessica Bridge says.
Don Riley, chief investment officer at Wiley Group in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania, thinks the uncertainty surrounding a Trump impeachment would result in the stock market falling 3 to 5 percent.
[See: 7 ETFs for a Solid Portfolio Defense.]
“It’s right for investors to have concerns,” he says. “You’d have an immediate sell-off.”
The extent of the sell-off. But the market movement would likely be short-lived because Republicans maintain control of Congress and a Pence administration would likely still back deregulation and tax cuts, an agenda that favors a stronger stock market, Riley says. And any market reaction to impeachment would likely be cushioned by underlying support from strength in the U.S. and global economy, he says
Riley thinks markets would recover within three to six months, which should leave buy-and-hold investors breathing easier.
“At least initially there would be a tremendous amount of volatility,” says Jeffrey Levine, CEO of New York-based BluePrint Wealth Alliance.
Market participants want certainty, which they aren’t likely to get, because there isn’t a lot of historical precedent to guide them if a president is impeached, he says.
Although the stock market initially reacted to the prospect of President Bill Clinton’s impeachment by declining about 20 percent, it soon rallied, making up for more than all the losses even while proceedings were underway, Levine says.
The damage was worse during Watergate, which led to President Richard Nixon resigning before he could be impeached. From the beginning of 1973 through Nixon’s resignation the next year, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost about 50 percent of its value. Still, because that era also was plagued with a struggling economy, high inflation and an oil crisis, it’s hard to say how much of the market’s performance was due to Watergate.
Eric Aanes, president of Titus Wealth Management in Larkspur, California, believes markets would quickly adjust to any impeachment proceedings with a small amount of volatility. “We don’t think it would be a major market mover if (Vice President Mike) Pence took over as president,” he says, adding that the chances of an impeachment and conviction seem remote.
Others are also skeptical of an impeachment happening. Levine doesn’t see enough Republicans turning ranks, given the strength of Trump’s political base.
[See: 9 Most-Loved Stocks in the Trump White House.]
“It’s going to take a lot for an impeachment,” Riley says.
Winners and losers. If Trump is impeached and convicted, there could be sector-specific ramifications, Levine says.
An impeachment would likely weaken the Republicans in the next round of congressional and presidential elections, he says. And that could harm Trump’s efforts to roll back bank regulations, boding poorly for financial sector stocks, he says.
Solar and wind companies, on the other hand, could benefit as the Democrats might put a higher priority on environmental concerns, Levine says. In this scenario, oil and coal investments would perform worse, he says.
Strategies to manage risk. Despite the uncertainty and volatility that could accompany a presidential impeachment, Levine thinks that buy-and-hold investors, as well as those who invest more actively, should continue investing as they always have.
“I don’t think investors should change their investing approach,” he says. “Don’t react to news of the moment; these things will pass.”
Levine recommends several ways to help manage risk — whether that volatility stems from a Trump impeachment or a general market pullback.
Besides being diversified, Levine says starting to work a small amount of puts into a portfolio can be a good idea. This strategy involves the option to sell a security at a prearranged price within a specified time to provide a softer landing if the market declines, he says.
Investors can also prepare by using financial software to model how their portfolio might perform in a theoretical downturn, he says. If they discover their investments would drop by an unacceptable amount, then they should shift more of their money into bonds, cash or puts or perhaps annuitize a pension, he says.
So-called bucket planning can also help, Levine says. With this strategy, investors set aside a year or two of living expenses in cash, with other “buckets” holding riskier securities. By segregating their assets this way, these investors can take more risks with longer-term investments.
If the market declines, investors who need the money straight away might consider tapping home equity to give their portfolio time to recover rather than sell off positions at low points, Levine says.
Adding alternative investments can also cushion your portfolio in a stock market drop, Aanes says. For this strategy, investors could put between 5 and 15 percent of a total portfolio into managed futures, long-short funds and options, he says. Managed futures accounts can hold commodity, currency, interest-rate and equity futures, and options on those contracts; they can decrease portfolio volatility because of their low correlation to stocks and bonds. Long-short funds use borrowed money, derivatives and short positions to try to boost returns even if the general market isn’t performing as well.
[Read: Alternative Investments Aren’t For Everyone.]
And because equities have rallied so much recently, portfolio rebalancing may be in order, Riley says. That may require selling some stock holdings and buying bonds to restore the portfolio’s original target allocation, he says.
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What a Trump Impeachment Might Mean for Markets originally appeared on usnews.com
