PHILADELPHIA — Exactly one week after pulling off a contentious victory over Sen. Bernie Sanders in the New York primary, Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton will look to build on her momentum when polls open Tuesday in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.
The biggest prize of the night will undoubtedly be Pennsylvania — a state with more than 200 Democratic delegates up for grabs. And on paper, the state looks pretty good for Sanders.
The National Association of Manufacturers most recently estimated the manufacturing sector accounted for 12 percent of Pennsylvania’s total economic output and employed about 10 percent of its workforce — both of which point to a high concentration of the blue collar workers Sanders has previously managed to attract in other state primaries.
The state also holds the third-most degree-granting, postsecondary institutions (i.e. colleges and universities) in the country, suggesting plenty of millennials and younger voters — who Sanders has also had success at winning over — call the state home.
The problem for Sanders, however, is that Clinton’s roots in the state have been growing for decades.
“She’s been in and out of this state forever. I’m not calling it her second home, but her connections in this state span 30 years,” says G. Terry Madonna, a public affairs professor and director of the college poll at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.
Clinton’s father, Hugh Rodham, was born and raised in Scranton — a small town about two and a half hours north of Philadelphia. He played football at Pennsylvania State University — the largest postsecondary institution in the Keystone State. His son and Clinton’s brother, also named Hugh, followed in his father’s footsteps and earned his undergraduate degree at Penn State. While there, he served as the football team’s backup quarterback.
Clinton’s son-in-law, Marc Mezvinsky, is the son of Marjorie Margolies, a former Democratic congresswoman from Pennsylvania who ultimately lost her seat in the House after supporting President Bill Clinton’s 1993 budget proposal.
And Bill Clinton won the 1992 Pennsylvania Democratic primary in a landslide, securing more than half of the state’s popular vote. He would go on to win the state of Pennsylvania in that year’s and 1996’s November general elections.
And Clinton herself handily defeated President Barack Obama in the 2008 state primary, walking away with the majority of voters in 60 of the state’s 67 counties.
With such extensive ties to the commonwealth, local support is not difficult to find.
“The reason I’m voting for her is that, when you look at the background of all these people running, Hillary is the only one that’s really qualified,” says Herbert Thomas, a Korean War veteran who was born and raised in McKees Rocks.
“I want experience, and I want a woman to be president,” Wallingford resident Vera Orthlieb said last week at a Clinton rally in Philadelphia. “I admire Sanders, but I understand that change in this country should come in increments, not as a revolution.”
Sanders, for his part, has been all over the state in recent days trying to build support. The night he lost New York, Sanders delivered an impassioned speech from Penn State, suggesting Clinton is “getting nervous” over the race for the Democratic party’s blessing in November’s general election.
“She’s getting nervous because we have won seven out of the last eight caucuses and primaries,” he said — though with New York factored in, Sanders has won seven of the last nine caucuses and primaries. “She’s getting nervous because when we began this campaign, we were 60 points behind. And in the last couple of weeks, a few national polls have actually had us in the lead.”
Indeed, the most recent HuffPost Pollster analyses suggest Sanders would defeat both GOP front-runner Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by wider margins than Clinton. And despite Clinton’s ties to Pennsylvania, Sanders has still managed to make inroads in the commonwealth.
“All my buddies are voting for Bernie. We’re just praying that if he doesn’t make it, maybe he’ll be put into some sort of position where he can make a change,” says Frank Behum Sr., who worked for more than 30 years in a steel mill in Bethlehem. “Because we know Hillary is in the back pocket of Wall Street. … I never thought as a Democrat I’d say that about her. But that’s just the way I feel.”
But any nervousness Sanders and his supporters may have identified in Clinton likely won’t be a factor in Pennsylvania. RealClearPolitics projects Clinton commands a 15-point lead in the Keystone State, and the most recent Franklin & Marshall College Poll estimates the former Secretary of State holds a 27-point lead.
Analysts generally believe Clinton’s connections run too deep in Pennsylvania for Sanders to play anything other than second fiddle come Tuesday.
“Other than losing New York, this would be the biggest defeat she could suffer,” Madonna says, suggesting a Clinton loss would be “stunning.” “This would be a tough state for somebody to defeat Clinton in.”
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Clinton Commands Home-Field Advantage in Tuesday’s Pennsylvania Primary originally appeared on usnews.com
