My 15 business predictions for 2015 (and results of my 2014 picks)

Here are my predictions for 2015. My 14-year record is 73 percent accuracy.

1. Geopolitics, geo-competition and the supply/demand dynamic for crude oil won’t find equilibrium anytime soon, causing prices to fluctuate, but average less than $70 per barrel.
2. Buoyed by consumers buoyed by low gas prices and six years of recovery fatigue, the U.S. economy will grow, but global economic headwinds and currency influences on exports will result in U.S. annual GDP averaging near an unremarkable 3 percent.
3. Consumer optimism will produce small business contribution to GDP greater than any year since the recession.
4. An improving economy, plus anticipation of a business-friendly 114 th Congress, will cause an upward trend in small business optimism toward NFIB Index’s 42-year average of 100 points.
5. Small business loan demand will increase as growth opportunities exceed the ability to fund them with organic capital resources.
6. With organizational productivity maxed out, even marginal economic growth will cause small and large businesses to increase hiring.
7. Continued concern about the fragility of the U.S. and global economies will cause the Fed to maintain monetary easing by keeping the Fed Funds rate unchanged.
8. In June the Supreme Court will deliver a catastrophic structural blow to Obamacare in a 5-4 ruling that the law does not permit subsidies to enrollees in the 36 states with federal exchanges.
9. The GOP-controlled Congress and President Obama will accomplish one thing together in 2015: Tax reform.
10. Congressional Republicans will successfully thwart the execution of Obama’s executive order on immigration.
11. The Sony hack and subsequent corporate cyber-terror threat by North Korea will for the first time in history manifest in cyber-security practices of corporate America being elevated to de facto national security concerns.
12. The unprecedented terror threat on a U.S. corporation by a foreign state in December 2014 will cause the U.S. government to constrain private companies from responding to such threats on their own.
13. In political theater redux, a Clinton and a Bush will become presidential candidates in the next cycle, but neither will be their party’s front-runners by year-end.
14. Oregon will defeat Florida State in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.
15. Alabama will win the inaugural NCAA Division I Championship Game Jan.10.

Write this on a rock …

Obamacare will continue to make news in 2015, as will oil, cyber-security and a mixed bag of global economic conditions.

Here are the results of my 2014 predictions.

1. Prediction: Five years after the Great Recession ended, the economy will average less than 3 percent growth. Actual: Although surging, 2014 GDP will be about 2.3 percent. Plus 1.
2. Prediction: Even with a slightly improved economy, small business (SB) optimism levels will still be below the NFIB Index’s 41-year average of 100 points. Actual: NFIB Index 2014 SB optimism is below 95 points. Unfortunately, plus 1.
3. Prediction: Continued uncertainty for the sixth straight year will make SBs reluctant to invest and borrow money. Actual: NFIB Index shows small businesses loan demand and investing at record low levels. Plus 1.
4. Prediction: Uncertainty about Obamacare’s impact will cause SBs to continue hiring reluctance. Actual: NFIB and other surveys shows SB hiring still negligible. Plus 1.
5. Prediction: Obamacare will continue to be an economic headwind in 2014. Actual: Owners and managers continue to identify Obamacare as a significant negative factor in business decisions. Plus 1.
6. Prediction: More significant than the media favorite U3 unemployment rate, the employment participation rate, currently 63 percent, will remain at a 38-year (Carter) record low. Actual: Current labor participation is 62.8 percent. Plus 1.
7. Prediction: The Fed will discontinue unprecedented quantitative easing (QE) that infused trillions of dollars into Wall Street since 2008 without benefiting Main Street. Actual: Fed ended QE in October. Plus 1.
8. Prediction: A combination of disruptions will produce a challenging year for Wall Street. Actual: Nothing seems to impede the madness of Wall Street crowds. Can you say bubble? Minus 1.
9. Prediction: Obamacare’s constitutionality will be challenged by many lawsuits. Actual: Currently 104 lawsuits have been filed against Obamacare, including one before the Supreme Court. Plus 1.
10. Prediction: Democrats running for re-election in 2014 will run from the president. Actual: No Democrat wanted Mr. Obama anywhere near their campaign, but it still didn’t help. Plus 1.
11. Prediction: The GOP will regain control of the Senate and maintain a majority in the House in November. Actual: Republicans swept almost everything, from the Senator down to dog catcher at the local level. Plus 1.
12. Prediction: President Obama will prevail on immigration but will lose on minimum wage. Actual: Immigration win by Obama’s executive order but no minimum wage increase. Plus 1.
13. Prediction: Hillary Clinton will not announce her 2016 presidential intentions before the mid-term elections. Actual: Everyone knows she’s running; she just hasn’t announced yet. Plus 1.
14. Prediction: Auburn will defeat Florida State in the BCS Championship Game. Actual: Great game, but the Noles won 34-31. Minus 1.

Write this on a rock … This year I’m 12 for 14, or 86 percent, taking my 14-year record to 73 percent (’08 was a rough year).