No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Oregon is an even matchup on paper. One intangible would appear to favor the Ducks.
The Big Ten is now a coast-to-coast conference with its expansion to 18 teams, and early indicators show travel takes a toll.
Teams playing at opponents at least two time zones away are a combined 1-8 in conference games. Indiana, from the Eastern time zone, won on the road against UCLA for the only victory. Among last week’s losers: Michigan at Washington and Southern California at Minnesota.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day said he and his staff don’t consider the time change a big deal. Kickoff in Eugene is 4:30 p.m. Pacific, which is a standard 7:30 p.m. Eastern start.
“I don’t really see it as much of a challenge that way,” Day said. “It’s a four-and-a-half-hour flight, a couple more hours than Nebraska. We’re going to stay on our time schedule. The way the time of the game fits is kind of how we practice. We’re not going to look too much into it.”
The picks, with all games Saturday unless noted, and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
No. 1 Texas (minus 14 1/2) vs. No. 18 Oklahoma
The last time Texas entered the Red River Rivalry game ranked No. 1 was 1984, when the Longhorns and No. 2 Sooners played to a 15-15 tie. This one shouldn’t be close. Quinn Ewers is back from injury, Texas has yet to allow 300 yards in a game, and Oklahoma’s offense is a mess.
Pick: Texas 27-10.
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Oregon (plus 3 1/2)
The Buckeyes have rolled over each of their first five opponents, though it took them a while to get going against Iowa last week. Wins haven’t come quite as easily for the Ducks, but Dillon Gabriel and the home field give them an edge in the first top-five matchup at Autzen Stadium.
Pick: Oregon: 31-27.
No. 4 Penn State at Southern California (plus 5 1/2)
The Nittany Lions are the only FBS team to start 5-0 the last four years, and they are riding some momentum after dominating UCLA most of the second half last week. USC has gotten a taste of Big Ten physicality and lost two of their first three in their new conference.
Pick: Penn State 28-24.
Mississippi State (plus 33 1/2) at No. 5 Georgia
Georgia might not be scoring at the rate it was last season, but Mississippi State is allowing 475 yards and 38 points per game against FBS opponents. Georgia also has won 27 straight home games.
Pick: Georgia 35-3.
South Carolina (plus 21 1/2) at No. 7 Alabama
Alabama has experienced incredible highs and lows the last two games and surely is itching to play this game to get rid of the taste of the Vanderbilt upset. This is only the second meeting of the Gamecocks and Crimson Tide since 2010.
Pick: Alabama 41-21.
Florida at No. 8 Tennessee (minus 15 1/2)
Tennessee will be looking to vent some frustration after getting humbled at Arkansas last week. The Volunteers’ offense has regressed the last two games, and the Gators’ defense is coming off its best game against UCF.
Pick: Tennessee 35-17.
No. 9 Mississippi at No. 13 LSU (plus 3)
Jaxson Dart and LSU Heisman winner Jayden Daniels marched their teams up and down the field last year and combined for 104 points and more than 1,300 yards in the Mississippi win. The defenses might want to show up this time. There are huge College Football Playoff ramifications.
Pick: LSU 28-23.
No. 10 Clemson (minus 20 1/2) at Wake Forest
Clemson’s Dabo Swinney looks to improve to 16-0 against the Demon Deacons. His Tigers have been fast starters, having outscored their five opponents 90-0 in the first quarter.
Pick: Clemson 42-17.
Stanford at No. 11 Notre Dame (minus 23 1/2)
The injury bug has bitten another Notre Dame player, with coach Marcus Freeman announcing sack leader Boubacar Traore is out for the season with a torn ACL. Stanford is coming off a 24-point loss at home to Virginia Tech and will be playing its third game in the Eastern time zone in four weeks.
Pick: Notre Dame 38-10.
No. 11 Iowa State (minus 3) at West Virginia
Mountaineers dual-threat QB Garrett Greene and the 1-2 RB punch of Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson could pose a big problem for Iowa State, which leads the Big 12 in defense but hasn’t stopped the run as effectively as some past units.
Pick: Iowa State 31-27.
Arizona at No. 14 BYU (minus 5 1/2)
BYU has been a revelation, already matching its 2023 Big 12 win total (two). The Cougars have returned a punt and kickoff for touchdowns, and their defense has 10 takeaways. Arizona is 124th in punt return defense and coughed up the ball three times at Texas Tech last week.
Pick: BYU 28-17.
No. 16 Utah at Arizona State (plus 6 1/2)
Paging Cam Rising. The Utes have scored a total of 32 points with freshman QB Isaac Wilson the last two games, and mum’s the word on whether Rising will be back from injury for Friday’s game. The Sun Devils will try to get RB Cam Skattebo going. Skattebo busted loose for 180 yards against Kansas.
Pick: Arizona State 21-20.
No. 17 Boise State (minus 21) at Hawaii
Broncos’ Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty is only the eighth FBS player to need only five games to rush for 1,000 yards. Hawaii’s two wins are against FCS opponents.
Pick: Boise State 49-14.
No. 18 Kansas State at Colorado (plus 4)
This is a Big 12 game again, and K-State will be making its first visit to Boulder since 2010. The Wildcats have allowed 20 pass plays of 20 yards or longer, tied for 107th. Shedeur Sanders is seventh nationally with 24 passes of 20-plus yards.
Pick: Colorado 33-31.
No. 21 Missouri (minus 27 1/2) at UMass
This matchup prompts a double-take at first glance. It’s the first game of a home-and-home series between the Tigers and FBS independent Minutemen. It’s also get-well week for the Tigers, who laid an egg at Texas A&M.
Pick: Missouri 42-6.
California at No. 22 Pittsburgh (minus 3 1/2)
Pitt is in the Top 25 for the first time in two years, 5-0 for the first time since 1991 and going for its best start since 1982. Freshman QB Eli Holstein is passing for 313 yards per game with 15 TDs. He’ll face a Cal defense leading the nation with 11 interceptions.
Pick: Pittsburgh 37-28.
Purdue at No. 23 Illinois (minus 19 1/2)
Illinois has lost four straight to the Boilermakers. That streak will end unless Illini get caught looking ahead to matchups with Michigan and Oregon the next two weeks. Purdue is floundering on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Illinois 40-13.
AP predictions scorecard
Last week: Straight-up — 11-6; Against spread — 7-10.
Season: Straight-up — 97-29; Against spread — 63-63.
____
Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football
Copyright © 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, written or redistributed.
