One unknown to scheduling non-conference opponents years in advance is whether those future foes are as attractive when game day finally arrives as they were when the contract was signed.
So-called “cupcake” guarantee games against overmatched lower-tier foes often end up providing a lopsided win along with valuable experience for reserves and underclassmen.
But judging from the September schedules of Southeastern Conference contenders Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and newcomers Texas and Oklahoma, a beefed-up out-of-league menu is preferred over cupcakes. And with some teams, sweets are out altogether.
Schedule strength is no small matter with the College Football Playoff now expanded to 12 teams. How much credit that earns with the CFP committee won’t be known until the initial rankings are revealed on Nov. 5, but this season suggests that SEC teams aren’t easing into their league seasons.
“I like playing good opponents,” said Georgia coach Kirby Smart, whose top-ranked Bulldogs blew out then-No. 14 Clemson 34-3 in their opener, an atmosphere he likened to a playoff.
Smart would know, having won national titles in 2021 and ’22 before just missing the four-team field last season. He added, “The fan base likes it, it makes for a better offseason. So, I’m certainly glad we were able to play a really good team, a good program like Clemson.”
Even with a field featuring the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large teams, schedule strength always figures heavily into the formula. The CFP selection committee uses a strength-of-schedule rating provided by SportSource Analytics that includes components such as wins and losses, scoring differential and game location.
In any event, the SEC as a whole appears to face the toughest path to the CFP after sending only Alabama last season.
Fifth-ranked Mississippi (2-0) might be the exception with games against FCS-level Furman – which the Rebels walloped 76-0 in their opener — and Georgia Southern. But a test looms on Saturday at ACC counterpart Wake Forest, their second consecutive FBS foe after beating Middle Tennessee 52-3 last week.
“Better than the first two opponents and on the road, so it’s a really good measuring stick for where we’re at,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said of the pending meeting against the Demon Deacons eager to rebound from a 4-8 season.
Schools such as No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Alabama and No. 15 Oklahoma are sticking strictly with upper-division opponents before starting league play.
Oklahoma (2-0) will host Tulane on Saturday, its second matchup against the American Athletic Conference in three weeks. It follows last week’s 16-12 win over Big 12 rookie Houston. The Sooners are 13½-point favorites according to BetMGM but face a Green Wave squad that went 11-3 last fall and is 23-5 over the past two seasons, including a bowl win over USC in 2022.
“It prepares you for the season,” said Sooners coach Brent Venables, whose team opens SEC play next week against No. 7 Tennessee. “I just think with better competition, the better you get. That brings out the best in everybody. When you’ve got force on force and you’ve got people that can create resistance and challenge you, that’s how you get better.”
The Crimson Tide’s lone FCS foe is Mercer on Nov. 23, a week before hosting archrival Auburn. Alabama visits Wisconsin on Saturday, seeking a sharper performance in a game that may have seemed more intriguing years ago, before the Badgers fell off a bit.
Like Georgia, No. 16 LSU opened in Las Vegas against No. 23 USC in an attractive Labor Day matchup of football powerhouses. Though the Tigers fell 27-20 on a late touchdown – followed by coach Brian Kelly pounding a table in frustration afterward – he welcomed the rare showdown between teams that shared the 2003 national championship.
It was scheduled before conference realignment, a seismic change that now has USC moving from the Pac-12 Conference to the Big Ten while LSU has to deal with Oklahoma and Texas in the SEC. As much as Kelly loved the pairing, he said beforehand that he wasn’t sure whether it could continue given the shifting landscape.
“Moving forward, these may not be the kind of things that you see relative to openers,” he said. “We were too far down the line to want to make any changes with this opener. I think it’s still an appealing opener even given the changes that have occurred. … We may or may not see something like this.”
Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz doesn’t have a preference for non-conference challenges, focusing more on the SEC gauntlet that he believes will carry more weight. With the transfer portal’s huge role in affecting roster makeup, he added that it’s hard to know how strong an opponent will be years down the road.
But sometimes, the current schedule provides a surprise challenge. Drinkwitz is curious to see how his sixth-ranked Tigers (2-0) handle No. 24 Boston College, which topped then-No. 10 Florida State 28-13 to wrap the first weekend.
“This test will not define our season one way or another,” he said. “But it does give you a sense of where you’re at, how much more improvements needed, where you’re specifically weak. We’ve had that every year since I’ve been here. And I think it gives your football team kind of a dose of reality early in the year.”
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AP Sports Writers Cliff Brunt, Brett Martel, Teresa M. Walker, and John Zenor contributed to this report.
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