What will the first College Football Playoff rankings look like? We plugged the numbers into our model to try to figure it out.
WASHINGTON — As baseball thunders toward its raucous finish this week, college football will step into the spotlight with the first College Football Playoff rankings, announced Tuesday evening. As we have in years past, we’ll try to predict the field using a weighted model to try to account for everything the committee is supposed to take into account when making its decisions.
I’ve adjusted the model slightly this year to try to iron out some of the quirks, but the results will always be incomplete until the end of the regular season (just like the rankings themselves). The model doesn’t assume any conference winners, but will factor that into play when the time comes. In other words, there may be a few surprises in this week’s projected field.
Flip through the slides to see how we expect the preliminary field to shake out Tuesday night.
(Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images
25. South Florida24. South Carolina23. LSU22. Michigan State21. Memphis
South Florida saw its dreams of a New Year’s Day bowl and possibly a spot in the playoff ripped away in a heartbreaker at home under a downpour against Houston. That the Bulls are still in the Top 25 is a testament to how strong they’ve been and perhaps a good sign that the Group of 5 still has a shot at creating chaos up top. Despite its loss, Memphis is also still potentially positioned for a New Year’s Day bowl, if it can win out and snag the American title.
(Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
20. Stanford19. Michigan18. USC17. Iowa State16. Mississippi State
Mississippi State is the team with the chance to throw a wrench into everything. The Bulldogs are a spotless 4-0, just thwacked Texas A&M in College Station, and ready to get a cupcake in UMass this weekend as a tune-up before Alabama comes to town Nov. 11. Oh, and sorry, Iowa State. Those two big wins in Norman and at home over TCU can’t erase home losses to Iowa and Texas.
(Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images
15. Auburn14. Virginia Tech13. Washington12. Miami11. UCF
The squad out of this group that will have the best chance to crack the Top 4 will be Saturday’s Miami-Virginia Tech winner, who will have the inside track to the ACC title game. Washington, meanwhile, is our highest-rated Pac-12 team and still has a trip to Palo Alto and the Apple Cup (plus the potential Pac-12 title game) to try to boost its resume. The biggest wild card is UCF, which got screwed a bit by its game against Georgia Tech getting cancelled. The Knights will be rooting for USF to win out before their November 24 meeting, and for Memphis to do the same to set up the most attractive American Conference Championship possible.
(Photo by Michael Shroyer/Getty Images)
Photo by Michael Shroyer/Getty Images
10. TCU9. Clemson8. Oklahoma7. Oklahoma State
Bedlam this weekend is a straight loser-out game for the CFP. If Oklahoma wins, their reward is another loser-out game against TCU next week. The Big 12’s best hope to get a team in the Playoff is probably for the Horned Frogs to survive the rest of their schedule (also vs. Texas, at Texas Tech, vs. Baylor). Clemson got in despite a bad loss last year and made the most of its chance. The Tigers should be pulling for an undefeated Miami to win the ACC Coastal, which may be their last chance at a resume-building win.
(Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images)
Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images
6. Wisconsin5. Notre Dame
Oh, Notre Dame. The Irish are the trickiest team to place, given their lack of a conference affiliation. But with games at Miami and at Stanford remaining, it’s pretty clear that they’ll be in if they can win out. The same can be said of Wisconsin, despite its laughably weak schedule, because the Badgers will have to take down one of the teams ahead of them in the B1G title game. But if Wisconsin slips, say, in a trap game at Indiana Saturday or at home against Michigan in three weeks? Without a Top 25 win, it’s hard to see how they get in.
(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images
4. Penn State
Yes, Penn State’s been dominant enough against a solid schedule to hold this spot for now (though they almost certainly won’t in the rankings Tuesday). But the difference between them and the top two teams in terms of raw score is greater than the difference between them and UCF, down in 11th. And the Nittany Lions need help. A LOT of help. Like, two-loss champions from multiple conferences, or, of course, a pair of Ohio State losses. Without the bonus for winning the conference, they stand no chance. Crazier things have probably happened in college football (because it’s college football), but they don’t readily come to mind.
(Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
3. Ohio State
Penn State’s strong showing only helps Ohio State. Ostensibly, the Buckeyes should be cheering for the Nittany Lions to win out, making their epic win Saturday look even better. None of it will matter in terms of the Big 10 when it’s all said and done, because Ohio State is undefeated in conference and has the title game in its sights, if it can stay that way. But a second loss, either in conference or the title game, would be devastating to the Buckeyes’ Playoff chances.
(Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
2. Georgia
Georgia’s arguably earned the top spot. That Week 2 win in South Bend just keeps looking better and better, as does the Bulldogs’ 31-3 thrashing of Mississippi State. They embarrassed Florida right out of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party and have a chance to put a stranglehold on the SEC East with a win over South Carolina this weekend. But they have to travel to Auburn after that and have the always tricky Georgia Tech in Atlanta to finish the year. As good as they’ve been, could the Dawgs make the playoff even with a loss to Alabama in the SEC title game?
(Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images
1. Alabama
There’s been a lot of talk going into the first set of rankings that Alabama might not be the top team, and our model comes close to supporting that. But despite the Crimson Tide’s surprisingly weak schedule to this point, their absurd margins of victory tip the scale in their favor. They’ve played one game tighter than 17 points this year, and are outscoring their opponents 43-10. Of course, ‘Bama gets three ranked teams in four weeks, with LSU at home before trips to Oxford and Auburn, so the strength of schedule should go up while the margin of victory comes back to Earth. Unless they get shocked, it’ll be tough to be above ‘Bama.
(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 09: Clemson Tigers players pose after defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide 35-31 in the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship Game at Raymond James Stadium on January 9, 2017 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)(Getty Images/Jamie Squire)
TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 09: Clemson Tigers players pose after defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide 35-31 in the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship Game at Raymond James Stadium on January 9, 2017 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)(Getty Images/Jamie Squire)
