Bracket Breakdown III: Howard, Virginia see their seasons end, while JMU dares to dream in a stacked South

James Madison head coach Mark Byington gestures during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Morgan State, Friday, Dec. 22, 2023, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)(AP/Nick Wass)

Dave Preston is an AP Top 25 voter. Read his latest ballot here.

The NCAA Tournament tipped off last night with one team from the District and another from the Commonwealth both seeing their seasons end.

Howard (18-17) rallied from 17 points down to come within a 3-pointer of sending the game into overtime. The Bison had three shots on their final possession fall off the mark in a 71-68 loss.

“I think we didn’t get the ball down as far as we wanted to do, and Seth (Towns) was a little bit further out probably than he was comfortable shooting,” Coach Kenneth Blakeney said. “But in saying that we still were able to get three great looks at the basket. Sometimes the basketball gods are with you and sometimes they’re not.”

But as the dust settles, Howard posts its third straight winning season for first time in over 30 years. The foundation is in place.

It wasn’t that close for Virginia (23-11) in its 67-42 loss to Colorado State as the Cavaliers scored just 14 points in a first half where they went scoreless for the final nine minutes.

“They did a good job pressuring the ball and being in passing lanes in the gap,” senior guard Reece Beekman said. “I think we ran some good offense but the shots weren’t falling. I do credit them: they mixed it up with their ball-screen coverages.”

The four-year starter closes out his career by notching 15 points and four assists, while the lack of offense (25% shooting and 3 of 17 from three) hurt the team on the other side of the floor.

“That definitely bled into the defense, and again the way they run their (offense) you needed to be so sound all game,” Virginia head coach Tony Bennett said. “It seemed like it was an effect that we weren’t helping on screens and doing the things that would have given us a chance to stay somewhat connected.”

The offseason questions will range from did UVA really deserve to make the tournament to what needs to be tweaked for the Cavaliers to return to the March success of 2014-19 when they reached three Sweet Sixteens in six years.

Tonight’s First Four has Grambling (20-14) making its first NCAA Tournament appearance by meeting Montana State (17-17), with the winner heading to Indianapolis for a Friday showdown with No. 1 seed Purdue. In the nightcap, Boise State (22-10) battles Colorado (24-10) for a spot in the South Region’s main bracket, with the winner also only having to travel between Dayton and Indianapolis (under two hours by bus).

One school already making its way to the subregional site is James Madison (31-3, 15-3 Sun Belt). The Dukes began their season with a bang by beating preseason No. 4 Michigan State in East Lansing, and while it’s one achievement to make an impression in November, it is another to sustain that play over the course of a full nonconference and league season. Which the Dukes did with only a handful of hiccups (two losses to Sun Belt regular season champ Appalachian State plus a defeat to Southern Miss) before taking care of their business in the conference tournament (not as easy as it looks — just look at all the upsets last week).

They battle a Wisconsin (22-13, Big Ten) team that looked sharp during its four-game run in the Big Ten Tournament but one that also lost eight of its last 11 regular season games. Which Badgers bunch will we get for the 9:40 p.m. Friday tipoff?

Longwood (21-13, 6-10 Big South) is also in the South Regional main bracket, but they’ll have a much tougher task: facing No. 1 seed Houston (29-4) Friday at 9:20 p.m. in Memphis.

The Cougars were on track to become the overall No. 1 seed as recently as last Saturday, when they got roasted 69-41 by Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game. They also boast First Team All-American guard Jamal Shead (13 points, six rebounds and two steals per game) and a defense that allows a Division I-low 57.0 points per game while also leading the nation in turnover margin.

The Lancers aren’t a team that shoots a ton of 3-pointers (5.8 per game ranks last in their conference) with Michael Christmas’ 39 on the season pacing the team. Christmas in March? Six made threes over four games.

Houston is a No. 1 seed for the second straight year, the first time that’s happened in the modern era (seeding began in 1979). And while they have enjoyed recent success in the NCAA Tournament (four straight trips to the Sweet 16), the Cougars are still searching for the school’s first National Championship unlike the No’s 2-5 seeds (Marquette, Kentucky, Duke and Wisconsin).

But at least they have enjoyed more success than Nebraska, who is still searching for its first victory in the Big Dance (at 0-7 they’re the only Power Five Conference school to be winless in the NCAA Tournament).

Bold:

While I’m feeling the Dukes will beat Wisconsin, I’m also confident that Boise State makes some noise. Since the First Four fired up in 2011, a team has advanced from Dayton into the Sweet Sixteen five times while posting a win in the main bracket 12 times. This year’s team I see breaking through is the Broncos, who drop by Dayton having won six of eight behind 6-foot-8 forward Tyson Degenhart (17 points and six rebounds with 51% shooting).

Fold:

WHAT is going on with Kentucky? Despite the talent that head coach John Calipari brings in annually, the Wildcats are more mild once again as they’ve secured a No. 3 seed after getting flushed out of the SEC Quarterfinals. And while they’re 5-2 against ranked teams this season, UK found a way to lose at home to UNC-Wilmington. While streaking Oakland (eight wins in nine games) might not be able to match up with the Wildcats, one feels that Texas Tech (three Sweet Sixteens in its last four NCAA trips) will be.

Gold:

Marquette is a No. 2 seed for the second straight March, and unlike 2023 the Golden Eagles don’t have a Michigan State lurking in their first weekend. They do have the best point guard in the nation — when healthy — and all eyes will be on Tyler Kolek as he recovers from an oblique injury suffered Feb. 28. But even minus Kolek, they were able to reach the Big East Tournament finals with Kam Jones (21 points and five assists per game in March) picking up the slack. I see a healthy return for Kolek and the Golden Eagles to get past Houston in Dallas to their first Final Four since 2003.

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Dave Preston

Dave has been in the D.C. area for 10 years and in addition to working at WTOP since 2002 has also been on the air at Westwood One/CBS Radio as well as Red Zebra Broadcasting (Redskins Network).

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