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More than six in 10 voters in a new Maryland poll said they approve of the job being done by Gov. Wes Moore (D).
The survey, released Tuesday morning by Annapolis-based Gonzales Research & Media, is the first time Moore has edged over 60% — a rating held by his predecessor Larry Hogan (R) for the majority of his two terms.
Moore, entering the back half of his first term, has seen his national profile rise both as a campaign surrogate for President Joseph Biden and later Vice President Kamala Harris. Those efforts led to a prime time speaking spot in the recent Democratic National Convention.
Pollster Patrick Gonzales attributed the surge in Moore’s approval to crisis management in Maryland.
“So, if I had to pick one thing — I have no empirical data or empirical proof — I would pick the way he’s handled the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and the aftermath dealing with it,” said Gonzales.
In a February Gonzales poll, 58% of voters said they approved of the job done by Moore. That poll was released more than a month before the March 26 collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.
The span fell into the Patapsco River in the early morning hours after the Dali, a 984-foot container ship, lost power and struck a bridge support. Six workers were on the bridge doing overnight road repairs.
In the poll released Tuesday, nearly 64% of voters said they approved of the job done by Moore so far. Nearly 39% said they strongly approved of the first-term governor’s performance. That included more than eight in 10 Democratic voters and more 35% of Republican voters who expressed favorable opinions about Moore.
Just under 25% said they disapproved of Moore’s performance. With the exception of Republican voters, Moore held favorable majorities across all age, geographic, racial demographic groups in the survey.
Gonzales surveyed 820 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in November. The poll asked voters about Moore and other issues including the coming presidential election and the direction of the country.
The poll, conducted between Aug. 24-30, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%.
Optimism over the country’s direction
Marylanders appear to feel a bit better about the direction of the country than they did six months ago.
According to the survey, 50.4% said the country is headed in the right direction. About 45% of those who responded said it was headed in the wrong direction.
The numbers represent an improvement from the February Gonzales poll. In that survey, 54% said the country was headed in the wrong direction.
Republicans and independents and white voters are among the most pessimistic. The discontent was felt the greatest on the Eastern Shore and in Western Maryland where more than six in 10 voters were pessimistic.
Those areas also tend to be some of the most Republican areas of the state.
Nearly 73% of Black voters surveyed expressed optimism about the direction of the country.
Biden approval remains steady
Job approval numbers for Biden slipped a bit since the February poll but remain within the margin of error.
Overall, 53% of those surveyed said they approved of Biden’s job performance. More than six in 10 of those who approved said they “strongly approved.”
Again, there were few surprises: Biden’s job approval closely tracks the partisan divide in national electoral politics. More than 76% of Democrats approved of Biden’s efforts. More than 80% of Republicans and 58% of independents disapproved.
Nearly 76% of Black Maryland voters said they approved of Biden’s work — the highest of any demographic in the poll.
A bounce for Harris
A lot has happened since February. One of the biggest events was Biden’s decision to end his re-election bid and endorse his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Maryland voters have changed their opinion about Harris since February.
Six months ago, 46% of statewide voters said they approved of the job done by Harris. That same poll found 47% disapproved of her efforts.
In the poll released Tuesday, Harris has bounced back with more than 55% with a favorable job approval number. Fewer than four in 10 voters said they disapproved.
Negative attitudes toward Trump strongly held
Meanwhile, Maryland voters have not changed their opinions on Donald Trump, the former president and current Republican nominee.
Roughly 57% of those surveyed held a negative opinion of the job Trump did as president. Of those who felt negatively about Trump’s job performance, more than nine in 10 voters “strongly disapproved.”
More than four in 10 said they approved.
Again, the poll showed the vast majority of Democrats and Republicans lining up to support the candidate of their party. Independent voters were almost evenly split.
“Keep in mind that the intensity of disapproval has always been there since 2017 and the first time I ever did a poll in Maryland on Trump,” Gonzales said. “I’m not going to put too fine a point on it, but his numbers today aren’t quite as bad as they were in February when it was 61% disapprove, 38% approve. They still stink and that’s just the way it is.”
Few surprises for presidential contest in Maryland
There is also little drama in terms of the presidential matchup between Harris and Trump. Maryland is a state where Democratic voters outnumber their Republican counterparts by a roughly 2-1 margin.
Maryland has not gone to a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Additionally, Trump remains wildly unpopular in the state.
Nearly 56% of voters surveyed said they planned to vote for Harris while 35% said they would cast a ballot for Trump.
“It’s not looking not looking like 2020, but this looks pretty much like Maryland,” Gonzales said.
In 2020, Biden garnered more than 65% of the vote and defeated Trump in the state by nearly 33 points. Gonzales said Biden’s electoral performance was a historic high in Maryland.
Gonzales said that more than 90% of voters who said the nation was on the right track planned to vote for Harris. Seven of 10 voters who said the country was headed in the wrong direction said they would vote for Trump.
Gonzales offered one note of caution for the national picture based on his Maryland poll.
“The only cautionary sign that I see in that matchup number is that stated preference today among independents in Maryland is 38% for Harris, 36% for Trump,” the pollster said. “If I’m a Democrat, I don’t like seeing a poll in Maryland that among independents only has me up by two points over Trump.
“It doesn’t put Maryland in play for Trump but it might have implications in other parts of the country,” Gonzales said.
RFK endorsement of no consequence
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent presidential candidate, will have negligible effect on the race in Maryland.
Kennedy suspended his presidential campaign two weeks ago. He then endorsed Trump’s bid.
The unaffiliated candidate will appear on the Maryland ballot in November. Last week, state elections officials confirmed he surpassed the 10,000 signatures needed for inclusion.
The announcement has not swayed voters to Trump in any meaningful way.
Of those surveyed, 74% said Kennedy’s endorsement had no effect on who they would vote for.
The balance of those voters were nearly evenly split with a slight edge to Trump.
But many of those voters were already in the Trump camp.
Of the 12.8% who said they would be more likely to vote for Trump as a result of Kennedy’s announcement, more than three in four acknowledged they were already voting for Trump, Gonzales said.
