WASHINGTON — The battle to replace Maryland Sen. Barbara Mikulski is living up to expectations.
Rep. Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat representing Maryland’s 8th District, was considered a mortal lock for the Democratic nomination for Senate. But Rep. Donna Edwards, a Democrat from Maryland’s 4th District, is now tied or slightly ahead in the polls.
The latest poll from the Washington Post and University of Maryland puts Edwards at 44 percent and Van Hollen at 40 percent. The telephone survey of 1,503 adults has a 4.5 percent margin of error.
“No one was expecting this,” says Todd Eberly, chairman of the political science department at St. Mary’s College.
“The establishment got behind Chris Van Hollen very early. Donna Edwards was never able to match Van Hollen as far as fundraising. And yet, lo and behold, every non-partisan poll that comes out shows this race either tied or Edwards in a slight lead.”
One reason — what some experts say is the big reason — is that Edwards has closed the fundraising gap with the help of “Women Vote!,” the super PAC run by the abortion rights group Emily’s List. It’s devoting more than $2 million to Edwards’ primary campaign.
“Donna is a progressive champion in Maryland whose perspective is absolutely needed,” says Rachel Thomas, a press secretary for Emily’s List.
“Right now there are no African-American women in the Senate. When this country is talking about issues like raising the minimum wage, equal pay for equal work, criminal justice reform, her voice is absolutely needed at the table.”
However, Thomas dodged a question about whether the “Women Vote!” support has made the difference in the race.
“Are you of the opinion, as several analysts are, that the support that Edwards has received from the Emily’s List super PAC is the difference in this race?,” a WTOP reporter asked.
“Donna is doing a great job,” Thomas said in response. “She is in a very strong position for the primary on April 26. She’s out there every day working hard for every single vote. And we’ve been with her every step of the way, and we are excited to be with her every step through this election.”
Other possible reasons for Edwards’ surge: the diversity throughout the state and last summer’s violence in Baltimore.
“Given everything that’s been happening nationally and in Baltimore in the past year, I think there were quite a number of folks who wanted to see Maryland’s congressional delegation a little bit more diverse, a little bit more representative of the state,” Eberly says.
“There is absolutely an anti-establishment mood among the electorate. That’s one of the ways Edwards wound up in Congress in the first place. And this time around, I think she is playing up that angle quite effectively.”
Edwards has made it a race despite her own negatives, according to Don Norris, director of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.
“[Edwards has no] name recognition outside of Prince George’s and Montgomery Counties. And she’s not well-liked in the Democratic party. And yet, here she is.”
“She’s tapped into some kind of vein, ‘I’m not sure what that vein is,’” Norris said. “She’s certainly getting an incredible amount of African-American support — which is surprising, considering the number of African-American leaders in the state who have endorsed Van Hollen.”
Van Hollen isn’t done, however. He just unveiled a new list of endorsements — topped by Isiah Leggett and Rushern Baker, county executives in Montgomery and Prince George’s, respectively.
Edwards, meanwhile, has won the endorsement of National Nurses United, the country’s largest nurses’ organization.
Still, Norris says, a lot can happen in the final weeks of the primary campaign.
“She’s [Edwards] being heavily criticized at the moment for the attacks that she’s making on Van Hollen. Things can change. The election’s not quite over yet.”
And, Eberly predicts, it might come down to a “head vs. heart” decision for Maryland Democrats: “Their head tells them that Van Hollen is the candidate that has the better experience, [that] is probably going to work better with Senate colleagues.”
But, Eberly concludes, “Edwards has the passion that many progressive Democrats want to see in a candidate. And they’re just not quite sure, come election day, whether it’s going to be the head or the heart that prevails.”
