Bring on the bowls and the playoff!
This year’s College Football Playoff involves both blue bloods (Oklahoma-Alabama kicks things off one week from Friday) and upstarts (James Madison and Tulane are this year’s party-crashers).
The Crimson Tide and Miami both saw their bubbles burst last fall, and this year the two teams find themselves on the right side of the cutline with BYU and Notre Dame’s noses pressed up against the glass.
As we await next weekend’s first round, let’s review the season that was, compared to where we started.
What I got wrong: I had Penn State No. 1 and the Nittany Lions went 6-6 after firing head coach James Franklin in October. I also thought Clemson and LSU were playoff teams in August (both are 7-5) and had South Carolina and Florida in my top 15 (both teams finished 4-8).
Playoff participant Oklahoma began the season on the fringe and not on my AP ballot, while eventual one-loss teams Ole Miss, Texas Tech and Texas A&M started from the back benches of my top 25. In addition, eight of the bottom 10 schools in the current poll were not on my ballot.
What I got right: I had two exact matches, No. 3 Ohio State and No. 18 Michigan. Eventual playoff teams Georgia, Oregon and Alabama were in my top 10, while my preseason ballot had eight teams within three spots of their eventual spot in the top 25.
Local lens
This fall was a mixed bag for the D.C.-region’s FBS schools, as I went 7-5 against the spread picking Maryland, 8-5 against the number regarding James Madison games, 5-8 against the spread regarding Virginia and 5-7 with Virginia Tech. I saved the best for Navy, going 9-2 straight up but 3-8 against the spread with the Midshipmen.
And with each school there were moments when I appeared to be clairvoyant and times I seemed to be Claire from 90210.
Maryland: I actually hit the actual margin with a correct call in their Friday night win over Northern Illinois (I had them winning 27-16 and they won 20-9). Worst read was their game at Wisconsin, where I forecast a 20-14 loss and the Terps won their first ever game in Madison 27-10.
Navy: I also got the correct margin of victory with one Mids game, projecting they’d beat Florida Atlantic 38-28 in a game they would win 42-32. Biggest whiff? I had them beating Air Force 34-12 and the Mids escaped with a 34-31 victory.
Virginia: I was closest to the pin in their win at Cal (30-19 pick, 31-21 result). Twice I’d find myself 24 points from the actual final spread, with the close call against Washington State (22-20 after I saw a 44-18 rout) and upset over Florida State (46-38 after I projected a 30-14 disaster) looming large.
James Madison: Somehow I learned my lesson regarding Washington State, coming within one point (22-17 pick, 24-20 result) of the Dukes’ game with the Cougars. The previous week saw my biggest margin of error, when they beat App State 58-10 (I projected 37-23), while I was also off about Old Dominion (picked JMU to win 20-17 and they responded with a 63-27 rout).
Virginia Tech: What is it about ODU? I had the Hokies beating the Monarchs 26-17 and Brent Pry keeping his job through October, only to see Tech get trounced 45-26 and Pry get sent packing. The previous week I thought they’d beat Vanderbilt 21-17 only to see the Commodores cruise 44-20. I redeemed myself by calling a 15-point loss at Georgia Tech (32-17 when the final was 35-20).
Saturday’s game
No. 22 Navy (9-2) vs Army (6-5), 3 p.m., CBS
America’s Game stays in the state of Maryland (it was held at Northwest Stadium in Landover last year), returning to Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium for the first time since 2016 (an Army win that snapped Navy’s 14-year winning streak in the series).
The Mids are also looking for their first winning streak in the series since 2002-15. The key to their win last December was containing the Black Knight’s FBS-leading rushing game to 36% of its usual output. This year the spotlight matchup might be Navy’s offense (298.4 yards per game rushing ranks No. 1 in the nation) against Army’s defense (second-stingiest in the conference).
But the Black Knight’s stoppable offense (12th in the American Conference) against the Midshipmen’s movable defense (allowed 30+ points in six of last seven games) might be just as entertaining for all the wrong reasons.
The X factor will likely be the Blake Horvath to Eli Heidenreich connection as the future Navy pilot has been able to go to the air with incredible efficiency this fall.
Presto’s pick: Midshipmen make it happen, 24-13.
Championship weekend: 3-6
Season: 94-34
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