Follow WTOP’s coverage of the Virginia Election 2023.
With just a few weeks to go, the high-stakes election that will decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the Virginia general assembly, remains basically a dead heat.
Heading into Election Day on Nov. 7, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the 100-seat House of Delegates (50-46, with four vacancies) and Democrats maintain a similarly narrow majority in the 40-seat State Senate (22-18).
Every seat is on the ballot — and polls show the end result is up for grabs by either party.
“What you see across the commonwealth is really very much a 50-50 contest,” said Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, and a longtime Virginia state politics watcher.
Virginia voter guide: What you need to know for the 2023 general election
In Virginia, with so many districts falling into either solidly-blue Democratic or reliably-red Republican territory, there are only a handful of tossup seats in both the House and the Senate across the entire state — including a few pockets of purple in Northern Virginia — that could end up deciding which party controls the general assembly.
In Northern Virginia, analysts and observers are closely watching districts in outlying Loudoun and Prince Williams counties, as well as Stafford County. (Elsewhere in Virginia, it’s the suburbs of Richmond and Hampton Roads)
“When you talk about where Virginia elections are won and lost, you’re really talking about those ‘outer ring’ suburban communities,” Farnsworth said.
House races to watch
Among House races, all eyes are on District 21 in Prince William County.
Republican John Stirrup, who served on the county’s Board of Supervisors from 2003-2011, is facing Democratic newcomer Josh Thomas, an attorney and former Marine Corps officer.
Along with education and crime, the candidates have also sparred over abortion, which has become a key point of contention after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade last year,
While Virginia Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is now promoting a 15-week abortion ban in the state, recordings came to light of Stirrup at a Republican primary debate this spring telling voters he supported a 100% ban on abortion. (He later told InsideNoVa he doesn’t plan to vote on such a ban because it doesn’t have enough support from other lawmakers.)
Thomas has said he favors current state law allowing abortions up to 26 weeks and six days.
The intense focus on the hot-button issue of abortion largely mirrors what’s going on across the state.
“Democrats want to talk about abortion, above all, as they campaign and Republicans want to talk about other issues as they campaign,” said Farnsworth.
Still, Republicans have other issues that “animate cultural conservatives,” Farnsworth said, such as parental rights in education, an issue they are leaning into, and that has helped Virginia Republicans forge victories in 2021.
An Oct. 17 Wason Center poll from Christopher Newport University found the issues top of mind for likely voters were the economy and inflation (27%), abortion (17%) and K-12 education (12%).
Other Northern Virginia House races to watch:
District 22 is in the Manassas area of Prince William County. Democrat Travis Nembhard, a former attorney and D.C. administrative law judge, is facing Republican Ian Lovejoy, a small-business owner and former Manassas City Council member.
District 30, which includes Loudoun and Fauquier County, is a district that leans Republican, according to the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP). Democrat Rob Banse, a longtime Episcopal Church pastor who retired in 2018, is facing Republican Geary Higgins, a two-term member of the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors representing the Catoctin District.
District 65, which runs through parts of Stafford and Spotsylvania counties as well as Fredericksburg City, is also considered a competitive seat, per VPAP. Democrat Joshua Cole, a pastor and president of the Stafford County NAACP, who previously represented another district before losing in 2021, is facing Republican challenger Lee Peters, a Marine and captain in the Stafford County Sheriff’s Office.
CNalysis, a nonpartisan website that forecasts state legislative elections, finds Democrats slightly favored to take back both the House and Senate.
The large number of open seats is adding to the uncertainty, said Chaz Nuttycombe, who runs CNalysis.
“All of these competitive seats in Northern Virginia are open seats,” he said. “There’s not an incumbent in a single competitive district in Northern Virginia.”
In part, that’s because the redistricting process led to retirements and primary challenges earlier this year.
“The new maps kind of opened a Pandora’s box of sorts, when it comes to just how many incumbents were going to be heading out the door,” Nuttycombe said.
Senate races to watch
Among Senate races, more than a third of total seats on the ballot — 16 of 40 — have no current officeholder in the race.
Drawing some of the most attention is the race in District 31, which runs through parts of Loudoun County and Fauquier County. Republican Juan Segura, the founder of a maternal health care startup, is facing off against Democrat Russet Perry, a former prosecutor and ex-CIA officer.
It is shaping up to be one of the races with the highest spending in Virginia. As of Sept. 30, Segura had raised more than $2.8 million and Perry had raised more than $3.39 million, according to VPAP.
This race could be “the majority maker,” Nuttycombe said — referencing the race’s possible role in determining which party gains the upper hand in the general assembly’s upper chamber.
Again, abortion has been a key issue in the race.
Segura has said he would get behind Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposal to ban abortions after 15 weeks.
Perry has said she’s against an all-out abortion ban and that if elected, she’d work to prevent Virginia from joining other southern states in restricting access to abortion.
On the further edges of Northern Virginia is another race expected to be a tossup: District 27 in Fredericksburg, and parts of Stafford and Spotsylvania counties.
Republican Del. Tara Durant is competing against Democrat Joel Griffin and Independent candidate Monica Gary in another competitive district.
Durant is finishing her first term in the House of Delegates, having been elected in 2021 in the “red wave” that also brought Youngkin to the governor’s mansion. The former teacher is competing against Griffin, who served in the Marine Corps and has worked as a government contractor for 20 years.
Yet again, the debate over abortion is a key part of the contest.
Youngkin is backing Durant after supporting her in the primary and has campaigned for her this fall.
“For the Democratic candidate, Joel Griffin, you see a really, really aggressive effort to go all in on the abortion question,” Farnsworth said. “That I think speaks to where a lot of Virginia voters in the suburbs are.”
Another open-seat race to watch is District 30 — in Manassas City, Manassas Park as well as parts of western Prince William County. The district leans Democratic, according to VPAP, but is seen as a potential grab for Republicans.
Democrat Danica Roem, who has served three terms in the House, faces Republican newcomer Bill Woolf.
Roem, who was a journalist before serving three terms in the Virginia House, has debated issues of crime, schools and abortion against first-time candidate Woolf.
Roem’s campaign has toted her work to provide free school lunches in Manassas and Manassas Park while boosting the county’s infrastructure, according to InsideNoVa.
Woolf is a native to Prince William County and has spent much of his career working in law enforcement. He now leads a consultant group. His campaign has focused on parental rights in schools and reducing crime by being tougher on defendants.
