NEW YORK (AP) — When stock markets are as manic as they’ve been recently, it’s natural to want to do something to protect your retirement savings. Historically, though, staying calm has usually been best.
The U.S. stock market has a track record of recovering from every steep drop it’s taken. Whether it’s a global financial crisis, a trade war or a military war, the S&P 500 has so far always recouped its losses to push toward more records. Of course, that can take years, but anyone who moved their 401(k) investments out of stocks risked missing out on the recovery and further gains.
Will that happen again? No one can say for sure, and some things are different this time around. But many professional investors and strategists are sticking with the advice they usually give: As long as it’s money you don’t need soon, which should never be in stocks in the first place, try to be patient and ride out the stock market’s swings, tough as it is.
They gave the same counsel after President Donald Trump unveiled his global tariffs on “Liberation Day” last year, after inflation skyrocketed in 2021 and after COVID crashed the global economy in 2020. Stomaching these kinds of shocks is the price of admission to get the bigger returns that stocks can offer over the long term.
War worries
The war in Iran is slowing the global flow of oil and causing extreme swings in markets.
The fighting has halted most of the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off Iran’s coast where a fifth of the world’s oil sails on a typical day. That has sent oil prices as high as $119 per barrel occasionally, up from roughly $70 before the fighting started.
If the war continues until the end of June, strategists at Macquarie say the price of oil could reach $200 per barrel. The record is just above $147, reached during the summer of 2008.
If oil prices stay high a long time, the effects would stretch far behind higher prices at gasoline pumps. It could also push businesses that use any trucks, ships or planes to move their products to raise their own prices. It would also make electricity from gas-fired power plants more expensive.
The swings are adding up
The S&P 500 is on track for its fifth straight losing week, which would be its longest such streak in nearly four years. It’s roughly back to where it was in August, and it’s nearly 8% below its all-time high set early this year.
The Nasdaq composite, which focuses more on technology stocks, has already dropped more than 10% from its own all-time high. That’s a steep-enough fall that professional investors have a name for it: a “correction.”
It’s not just how much the market has dropped that’s unnerving, it’s also how unsteady the moves have been. The U.S. stock market yo-yoed repeatedly through this past week as hopes rose and fell about a possible end to the war.
This isn’t unusual
The U.S. stock market doesn’t often behave exactly like this, but it has a regular history of falling to steep losses before rising again.
The S&P 500 has seen a decline of at least 10% every year or two. Often, experts view them as a culling of optimism that could otherwise run overboard and drive stock prices too high.
“I believe getting a correction is not a bad thing,” said Ann Miletti, head of equity investments at Allspring Global Investments. “In some ways, I feel like that is what keeps the market from having a bigger issue.”
“It keeps all of us honest,” she said.
Should I sell now?
Selling your stocks or moving your 401(k) investments away from stocks and into bonds may offer less chance of seeing huge drops. But getting out of the market would also mean having to figure out the right time to get back in, unless you’re willing to give up any future recovery and gains.
And timing the market correctly is always difficult. Some of the best days in the U.S. stock market’s history have been clustered in among downturns.
Some recoveries take longer than others, but experts often recommend not putting money into stocks that you can’t afford to lose for several years, up to 10. Emergency funds, for things like home repairs or medical bills, should not be invested in stocks.
For those new to investing
Apps on smartphones have made trading easier and cheaper than ever. That’s helped draw in a new generation of investors who may not be used to such wild swings in the market.
But the good news is younger investors often have the gift of time. With decades to go until retirement, they can afford to ride the waves and let their stock portfolios hopefully recover before compounding and eventually growing even bigger. For them, drops in prices may almost be like stocks going on sale.
For those near retirement
Older investors have less time than younger ones for their investments to bounce back.
People who have already retired may want to cut back on spending and withdrawals after sharp market downturns, because bigger withdrawals will remove more potential compounding ability in the future. But even in retirement, some people will need their investments to last 30 years or more.
For those who have to raid their 401(k) now
If you have no other choice, you have no other choice. But selling stocks in your 401(k) account and withdrawing cash packs a double whammy. One, you may have to pay tax, as well as a possible 10% early-withdrawal penalty. Two, a withdrawal means no chance of those investments recovering their losses and growing over time.
A 401(k) loan is possible in some cases, but those come with their own peculiarities and possible penalties.
For those with pensions
You don’t have to pay as much attention to any of this. Defined-benefit pensions, which few U.S. workers still have, mean you’re in line to get a defined payment regardless of what the stock market does.
Some differences this time
When stocks are falling, prices for Treasury bonds and gold often rise as investors move into investments considered safer. That’s why many advisers suggest keeping a diversified portfolio, to help smooth out shocks.
This time around, though, Treasury prices have been hurt by worries about high oil prices and inflation. That in turn has sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury above 4.40%, up from just 3.97% before the war began.
Gold’s price has also struggled despite its reputation as a safe harbor during uncertain times. That’s because bonds paying more in interest make gold, which pays its investors nothing, look less attractive in comparison.
How long will this last?
No one knows, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
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AP Writer Cora Lewis contributed.
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