As the colder months approach, there is cautious optimism that an expected surge in COVID-19 cases could be less severe due to a significant spike in cases over the summer that boosted immunity for those who were infected.
Public health experts are monitoring the trends closely.
“In the past few years, we have seen summer surges of COVID, but this one was a bit larger than we would have expected,” said Dr. Andrew Pekosz, a virus expert with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, Maryland.
New variants had emerged a few months before summer began, and Pekosz said that likely played a significant role.
“They had a large set of mutations that looked very different from previous variants,” said Pekosz, who predicted that cases would start going up again around January.
“Perhaps a silver lining to the summer surge is that the large number of summer cases may mean that our winter wave is going to be a little bit smaller because individuals infected will have immunity that should take them through December and into January,” he said.
Even though the virus is constantly changing, COVID-19 vaccines that are available right now are a “fairly good match” to all of the variants that are currently circulating, according to Pekosz.
Vaccine immunity is optimal for about three months.
After that, it starts to provide less protection.
“People want to sort of forget about COVID because they feel the worst of it is over, but this is an important reminder that we have the tools to limit the number of cases, and in particular, the number of severe cases,” said Pekosz.
Starting next month, cases of flu are also expected to start circulating widely.
Public health experts will be keeping a close eye on that, as this past flu season was one of the worst ever recorded for children.
Nearly 200 children died from influenza-related complications, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“The influenza vaccination guidance given by the CDC is that anyone over the age of 6 months is eligible,” Pekosz said. “We often focus on those over the age of 65 as being particularly vulnerable to severe influenza, but children are also vulnerable as last year’s numbers show.”
According to the CDC, around 53% of children between 6 months and 17 years old are getting vaccinated for the flu, compared to 62% in 2020.
“For most children under the age of 8, it’s recommended that they get two doses of the vaccine spaced out over about three weeks,” said Pekosz. “That’s a little bit more challenging because of that need for a double dose.”
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