Visit WTOP’s Election 2024 page for our comprehensive coverage. Listen live to 103.5 FM for the latest. Sign up for WTOP’s Election Desk newsletter for headlines and analysis from now until Inauguration Day.
Control of the U.S. House of Representatives could turn on just a handful of competitive congressional races across the country.
All 435 seats are up for reelection, but political analysts said it will all boil down to roughly two dozen contests.
Republicans have held one of the narrowest vote margins in the history of the lower chamber, which has contributed to legislative dysfunction. The GOP currently holds 220 seats, while Democrats have 212 seats — three seats are unfilled.
The House was also without a speaker for several weeks last year, after Republicans ousted their own leader — former Rep. Kevin McCarthy.
Democrats have pointed to the political mess from a year ago, saying it shows the need for voters to elect a member of their party to wield the gavel in the House. Republicans argue they have gotten behind House Speaker Mike Johnson and he is poised to lead them with a new legislative agenda if — as they believe — former President Donald Trump returns to the White House.
But if Republicans don’t retain control of the chamber Johnson may no longer lead the GOP. It’s widely believed the party would look to someone else as the minority leader.
“The House is very close, just like the presidential race is very close,” said Kyle Kondik, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has 14 races as tossups. And while Republicans overall are slightly favored, Kondik noted that Democrats may have the edge in the competitive races.
He pointed out that Democrats and Republicans have both worked with razor-thin majorities.
In 2020, Democrats had 222 seats. In 2022, Republicans started with 222 seats.
“We’ve had some very narrow House majorities, and I think both sides are prepared for an outcome that is maybe equally close — or closer,” he said.
Key races to watch in Virginia and Maryland
In Virginia, Republicans are trying to flip the 7th District seat, which opened up when Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger decided to leave Congress and run for governor. Millions of dollars have been raised in the race between Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson.
In the 2nd District, Republican Jen Kiggans is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal. (A recent poll from the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University had Kiggans only up by a point, 46 to 45%.) Both candidates are Navy veterans.
- What’s on the line in Northern Va. on Election Day? Here are the races to watch
- Why is Maryland’s 6th congressional district race so competitive?
Kiggans defeated Democrat Elaine Luria in 2022, in a district that gained some GOP strength after being redrawn.
In Maryland, Republican Neil Parrott is trying to flip the 6th District seat that was held by Democratic Rep. David Trone, who made an unsuccessful run for U.S. Senate.
April McClain Delaney is trying to keep the seat in the Democratic column.
No result on Election Day?
The congressional delegations in New York and California have had a lot of highly competitive races in recent elections.
In New York, Republicans picked up four seats in the midterms, but some of those lawmakers are considered vulnerable.
GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is in a tight race with Democratic challenger Laura Gillen.
The Republican lawmaker has come under scrutiny after reports he hired his lover, as well as his fiancée’s daughter to work in his office. He has denied doing anything wrong.
Several races in California are considered tossups.
Republican Rep. David Valadao is in a difficult race with Democrat Rudy Salas, who is trying for a second time to flip the seat.
Valadao is one of only two House Republicans still in office, who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump after Jan. 6
At least 10 House races in California are considered competitive.
Due to the length of time it takes to tally the votes in California, as well as the close races in other states, it’s again likely that it won’t be known which party controls the House until long after Election Day.
In 2022, control of the House wasn’t determined until more than a week after the election.
Get breaking news and daily headlines delivered to your email inbox by signing up here.
© 2024 WTOP. All Rights Reserved. This website is not intended for users located within the European Economic Area.
