For the past decade, birth rates have been declining in the District. One D.C. Council member is raising the alarm, urging D.C. public and charter schools to prepare for the coming changes in enrollment.
According to the D.C. Policy Center, births have declined significantly from a high of 9,854 in 2016 to 7,062 in 2024.
Chelsea Coffin is the deputy director at the D.C. Policy Center and also leads the organization’s education policy initiative. She told WTOP the steady decline of over 200 births per year will affect enrollment at public and charter schools within the city.
“This means that we’re going to see a similar dip in pre-K enrollment, which over time can build,” Coffin said.
While enrollment has been increasing within D.C. schools, Coffin said that is primarily due to middle and high school increases from children born during those peak years a decade ago.
“It’s really important to think about the planning for the coming years for public schools for these decreases,” Coffin told WTOP.
Ward 3 D.C. Council member Matthew Frumin voiced his concern about these declining birth rates and enrollment at a recent legislative meeting.
“I think that we need to be very sober about opening new schools in a context in which birth rates are down and enrollment in pre-K3 is down,” Frumin told WTOP.
He said the D.C. Public Charter School Board has the authority to open new schools.
“There are places where there is a lot of empty space, and we need to manage that and invest in our existing schools, as opposed to opening new schools, particularly in places where there is a very large excess capacity,” he added.
Frumin said not planning now could lead to a lot of money being spent on buildings and administration during an austere fiscal time for the D.C. government.
“We have to be frugal about the way in which we invest our dollars and make sure that they’re invested as effectively as possible, and creating too much over capacity is economically very inefficient and undermines our ability to deliver great service and programming for all of our kids,” Frumin said.
The declining birth rates are not spread evenly.
“We’re seeing the largest decline in Ward 8 in D.C., in terms of the number of births per year. And this is the area of D.C. that has a relatively higher share of students who are at-risk currently,” Coffin said.
Because of this, there may be more capacity in certain areas of the District than others — and Frumin fears it may shuffle kids to have to go to pre-K and beyond in areas outside their neighborhoods.
Speaking about parents, Frumin told WTOP: “They want to have the predictability of a great school and a great path in their community, and we as a city government should have that as a guiding star for what it is that we’re doing, and so that I don’t think that means moving kids around.”
Coffin said D.C. Public Schools and charter schools should begin planning based on pre-kindergarten, kindergarten and early elementary schools enrollments as well as complete more long-term forecasting to anticipate what enrollment is going to look like for middle and high schools, because it will be another decade before this batch of pre-K students enters ninth grade.
Frumin added that the D.C. Public Charter School Board should be very careful about opening any new schools with these enrollment numbers on the horizon, adding that some charter school leaders believe it may dilute their effectiveness.
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