The omicron variant of the coronavirus has infected so many people, a Johns Hopkins disease modeler says, that between 50% and 90% of the population of various states have some degree of immunity against COVID-19.
The numbers in D.C., Virginia and Maryland are on the high end of that scale.
“By March 1, we expect about 73% of Marylanders to have been infected with omicron,” said Shaun Truelove, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
The numbers are even higher in D.C., where he said 80 to 90% of residents will have been infected with omicron by March 1.
The numbers aren’t as cut and dried in Virginia, but it’s estimated 45% of Virginians have the highest level of immunity, through boosted vaccination or through vaccination plus a recent infection with omicron.
A computational epidemiologist who leads University of Virginia’s COVID-19 modeling team told the Associated Press that another 47% have immunity that has waned somewhat.
Immunity does not prevent repeat infections; it helps protect against severe outcomes. People are best protected if they’re fully vaccinated and boosted, and also have experienced a recent infection.
“We can’t really say that that immunity that we’ve built up with omicron is going to protect us long-term, but it at least gives us probably a little bit of a break for the near future,” Truelove said.
Levels of immunity bolstered by omicron infections are expected to provide what Truelove characterizes as “a little window of breathing room” against severe COVID-19 outcomes, but, he said, the impact from an as-yet-unknown potential variant remains unclear.
“But, we do think that we’re moving toward a reality that is more normal, where we care less about each infection in each case, because on average each case and each infection is less and less severe because of the amount of immunity that’s building up in the population,” Truelove said.
He said the path back to a more normal reality will be quicker if everyone possible, including the youngest eligible children, get vaccinated and boosted.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Looking for more information? D.C., Maryland and Virginia are each releasing more data every day. Visit their official sites here: Virginia | Maryland | D.C.
