WASHINGTON — If we know one thing about the Orioles this year, it’s that the lineup is all set.
Slugger Chris Davis will be an Oriole for most of the rest of his career after signing a seven-year, $161 million deal in the offseason. Newly acquired Mark Trumbo has been raking this spring down in Florida. Pedro Alvarez will add some additional pop to a lineup that already features three players that hit over 20 homers last year: Davis (47), Manny Machado (35) and Adam Jones (27).
But just like last year, the question remains: How will this pitching staff fare in 2016? Let’s take a look at the projected rotation:
Chris Tillman
The Orioles’ Opening Day starter has some deceiving 2015 numbers that would have you believe he belongs in the back of a rotation, not the forefront. Tillman’s ERA in 2015 was 4.99, the highest it’s been since he started 13 games in 2011. In 2012, Tillman went 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA, and he followed that up with 16 wins and an All-Star appearance in 2013. Tillman will need to pitch like he did from June 28-August 22 last year — when he notched a 3.7 strikeout to walk ratio while maintaining a 2.35 ERA — if he wants to truly anchor this staff.
Yovani Gallardo
It was somewhat unusual to see O’s fans clamor over the prospect of signing a 30-year-old who has had six straight years of strikeout-rate decline, who had a second-half ERA of 4.69, and who completed seven innings just four times in the entire season. Nevertheless, GM Dan Duquette saw enough to sign Gallardo to a two-year, $22 million deal with the option of a third year in the offseason. Duquette has been quoted saying that Gallardo “is one of the few starters who’s been able to take 30 starts over the last six years.” That’s true, and he does help the rotation after losing Wei-Yin Chen to the Marlins, but we’ll have to see if he can recapture some of the strikeout ability he possessed when he was selected to the All-Star game in 2010.
Ubaldo Jimenez
Just like Gallardo, Jimenez was an All-Star in 2010, and entering the game he had nothing short of elite numbers: a 15-1 record with a 2.20 ERA. After the break? Jimenez finished just 4-7 and his Colorado Rockies failed to make the playoffs after making it the year before. 2015 was similar: Ubaldo started the season strong, boasting a 2.81 ERA in the first half of the season. However, that ERA doubled in the second half (5.63) and the Orioles missed the postseason after winning the division in 2014.
Jimenez has just once pitched a sub-4.00 ERA since his All Star season in 2010. When he takes the mound in 2016, we should expect a roller coaster type experience once again every fifth day.
Mike Wright
The 26-year-old Wright was named the fourth starter near the end of Spring Training, a year after posting a 6.04 ERA in 9 games started in 2015. Wright ended the Spring with a 4.79 ERA in six starts, with a 17-to-6 K/BB rate over 20.2 innings. While those are not excellent numbers, manager Buck Showalter was quoted by the Baltimore Sun as saying, “Mike pitched well this spring, and had a great year last year in Triple-A. It’s his time. I don’t know how much simpler you can make it.”
Wright has a few alarming numbers. He had a 42.9 percent fly ball rate in 2015, and his 3.63 BB/9 ratio won’t get it done against deep lineups in the AL East like the Blue Jays and Yankees. But with a full year in the rotation, we’ll see if he can mimic more starts like his last one in the spring, when he solidified his spot in the rotation by pitching five innings while allowing just one earned run on four hits.
Kevin Gausman
The Last and the most maddening of the Orioles starters is Kevin Gausman. Baseball fans have heard of Gausman’s potential for what feel likes years now, but injuries and management’s handling of him have hindered the 2012 first-round pick from consistently being a part of the Orioles’ rotation since his debut in 2013. Since then, he’s gone from starter to reliever, then starter again, then back to reliever, then finally back to starter. While fans have criticized how the Orioles have utilized the 25-year-old, Gausman told ESPN that he believed his time in the bullpen has molded him into the starter he is today, saying “that’s where I learned how to dominate at this level.”
Gausman will start the year on the DL, as he received a cortisone shot on March 20 to relieve right shoulder tendinitis that lingered throughout the spring. The goal for his return is April 19 against Toronto. They could certainly use his four seam fastball (which tops at 96 mph) against the dangerous Blue Jay bats.
Outlook
There are certainly plenty of “Ifs” and reflection on years past when it comes to the analysis of these starters, but luckily they will be handing off to a bullpen that ranked fifth in terms of ERA and are backed by a lineup that was slugged 217 home runs in 2015, third-best in baseball. That number could be even greater with the additions of Trumbo and Alvarez, who combined for 49 last season. Defensively, the team committed the second least amount of errors in 2015 and have a veteran manager in Buck Showalter who won’t regularly play a guy who is not strong defensively.
If Showalter and pitching coach Dave Wallace can master the ability to manage the pitching staff that was built by Dan Duquette, the O’s should improve off the 81-81 record that kept them out of the postseason for just the second time since 2012.
