The number of students attending schools in Loudoun County is projected to decline over the next several years, a trend that leaders in the Northern Virginia suburb anticipate will impact staffing and construction of new school buildings.
At a school board meeting last month, the school system unveiled enrollment projections for the next several fiscal years. In 2026, Loudoun is expecting 80,201 students, a 0.3% drop from the September 2025 unofficial enrollment. By 2031, the school division is estimating 77,360 students.
After several years of gradual growth starting in fiscal 2016, the decline started in 2023.
It can be attributed to a variety of factors, officials said. The birth rate is declining, as is the case across the Virginia, and families are moving away from Loudoun County, according to recent census data. Some young people may struggle to afford the cost of living in the county, and others are starting families later in life.
“We are seeing a slowing and declining in our enrollment,” Beverly Tate, director of planning and GIS services, said. “It’s certainly going to have an effect on staffing. It’s going to have an effect on new school construction.”
With the exception of one new high school, Tate said the estimates mean Loudoun isn’t anticipating opening any other new schools, “because our enrollments are dropping, and we believe we have the capacity within our facilities to serve those students.”
Many young families, Tate said, can’t afford to live in Loudoun, and the county also has older people “who are here to stay, but no more children coming out of our house.”
Some families are opting for home school or private school, but Tate said that’s a trend that diminished, so “there is no red flags for us, of concern, with this.”
The public school population in Loudoun is getting older, Tate said, and the district isn’t attracting as many young kids. That’s the reason the division has been building many secondary schools in recent years, Tate said.
The most significant decline is expected to be among kindergarten through fifth graders, according to school division data. However, the county is planning for a gradual increase in high schoolers.
In response to the projections, Board member Deana Griffiths said, “I personally think we may have overbuilt.”
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