“May the dreams that don’t come true be better than the nightmares that do.”
College football fans have wanted to tweak how the sport has determined its champion for decades, and even the No. 1 vs. No. 2 BCS game didn’t satisfy them (although it was better than the jigsaw pieced major bowl system).
The four-team playoff, while expanding the field, still left major conference winners out of the mix. A few years ago, I arrived at the perfect solution: an eight-team field that gave automatic berths to the Power Five conference winners while allowing three wild cards for small-conference schools that went unbeaten or teams that didn’t win their league but still had stellar seasons.
Three rounds: the first round on campus sites, semifinals on New Year’s Day and a championship on the now-traditional Monday night. Right?
I wake up in 2024 with an expanded field to 12 schools and no Pac-12 to produce an entry (apologies to Oregon State and Washington State this fall). There’s the perception that the SEC is getting multiple benefits of multiple doubts and a school’s brand takes precedence over its actual body of work.
Is anyone surprised?
But I’ll take more areas of the country having a chance to participate in what is a “national” tournament. I’ll enjoy the games this weekend and the playoff that now stretches deeper into January (and head-to-head with the NFL — good luck), realizing that fairness was never a part of this sport.
If they wanted to be “fair” they’d have all the conference championship games yield an automatic berth, fill out the field with worthy at-large schools and seed it like the other tournaments run by the NCAA. So now I’ll dream of that, only to wake up in 2034 with a 24-team field that includes the entire SEC and still no automatic bids for Group of Five schools.
The appetizer portion of conference championship weekend begins with three games on campus sites and one playoff bid on the plate.
Friday’s games
Conference USA: Western Kentucky (8-4) at Jacksonville State (8-4), 7 p.m., CBSSN
The skinny: Western Kentucky qualified for this game last weekend by beating Jacksonville State 19-17. But that game was played in Bowling Green. The Gamecocks had the better conference record, so this one will be played on their home field.
History: The Hilltoppers last won the league in 2016 and most recently played for the title in 2021. The Gamecocks joined the league in 2023 and give off the new money vibe by playing for the title in their second season as members.
Who to watch: WKU kicker Lucas Carneiro made four field goals, including a game-winning 50-yarder, last weekend while Caden Veltkamp threw for 301 yards in the win. One key for the Hilltoppers’ defense was holding JSU to 2-13 on third down and limiting Tre Stephens (1,403 yards and 20 touchdowns this fall) to 85 yards, his lowest output since September. Can he find is groove again Friday night?
Presto’s Pick: Home field holds as Jacksonville State prevails, 24-20.
Mountain West: No. 19 UNLV (10-2) at No. 10 Boise State (11-1), 8 p.m., FOX
The skinny: A Broncos win delivers a top-four seed to a team whose only loss this year is 37-34 at No. 1 Oregon, while a loss would likely knock them out. A Rebels win wouldn’t necessarily guarantee them a spot, but might just push them into the playoff pack as the No. 12 seed, as UNLV’s two losses are by a total of seven points.
History: Boise State won the regular season meeting 29-24 at UNLV. This is also a rematch of last year’s championship game, which the Broncos won 44-20. The Rebels are seeking their first MWC Championship game win.
Who to watch: BSU running back Ashton Jeanty leads the nation in rushing (2,288 yards with 25 touchdowns) although he was held to 128 and one score in the regular season meeting. Rebels linebacker Jackson Woodward had 14 tackles that day and leads UNLV with 114 stops on the season while also adding three and a half sacks and four interceptions.
Presto’s Pick: Broncos make the blue field count in a 37-27 win.
American Athletic: Tulane (9-3) at No. 24 Army (10-1), 8 p.m., ABC
The skinny: Tulane might be playing for a spot in the playoff if they hadn’t lost to Memphis Thanksgiving weekend, while the Black Knights’ 49-7 defeat to Notre Dame will be the blemish that can’t be laundered out of a playoff profile.
History: Army is enjoying beginner’s luck, reaching the championship game to wrap up its first year in the conference (Army isn’t the only school this year to do so, as you’ll learn below). The Green Wave is playing in its third straight championship game, having won the title in 2022. Tulane also won the last meeting between these two schools in 2020.
Who to watch: The top two rushers in the AAC will be on display, with Army quarterback Bryson Daily (1,348 yards and 25 TD) coming off a tour de force against UTSA, in which he threw for 190 yards while running for 147. Tulane’s Makhi Hughes (1,306) is coming off a 15-yard performance in the loss to Memphis.
Presto’s Pick: Green Wave regroups and gives Navy plenty of tape for next week’s meeting in a 28-20 win.
Saturday’s games
Now we get to “neutral sites,” unless your school is an hour’s drive from the stadium, or in the Sun Belt.
Big 12: No. 12 Arizona State (10-2) vs. No. 16 Iowa State (10-2), noon, Arlington, Texas, ABC
The skinny: The craziest conference race (nine schools in contention on Thanksgiving) sorted out what amounts to a playoff to get into the playoffs. If Boise State loses in the Mountain West Championship Game, this is for a first-round bye.
History: The Sun Devils are another first-year resident playing for their conference championship, although ASU was picked to finish last in the 16-team Big 12. Their last outright league title was the 1996 Pac-10 Championship. The Cyclones have to go back to 1912 (Missouri Valley Conference) to claim a league title.
Who to watch: Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo (1,398 yards and 17 TD rushing) posted three 100-yard games in November while the ASU defense will try to contain Cyclone wide receivers Jayden Higgins (1,068 yards and nine touchdowns) and Jaylin Noel (1,013 yards and six scores) from streaking through its secondary. Here’s hoping ASU doesn’t suffer the “I thought YOU were supposed to cover Jay!” miscommunication.
Presto’s Pick: Sun Devils deliver a 34-24 victory.
Mid-American: Ohio (9-3) vs. Miami of Ohio (8-4), noon, Detroit, Michigan, ESPN
The skinny: They’re playing for pride and a better second-tier bowl as there’s not a 16-team playoff in which every conference champ gets a seat at the table. We can still dream, right?
History: Miami’s 4-2 in MAC title games, including last year’s win over Toledo. The Redhawks also took the regular season meeting between the two schools, 30-20 in Oxford. The Bobcats are 0-5 in championship games.
Who to watch: Redhawks running back Keyon Mozee rushed for 111 yards in the October win over OU and finished with 1,045 yards on 6.6 per carry. Anthony Tyus III led the Bobcats with 960 yards rushing, and his day against Miami (15 yards on eight carries) likely kept him from reaching the millennium mark.
Presto’s Pick: At least one Miami doesn’t shrink in the clutch, edging Ohio 23-13.
SEC: No. 2 Texas (11-1) vs. No. 5 Georgia (10-2), 4 p.m., Atlanta, Georgia, ABC
The skinny: The winner gets a top-four seed while the loser isn’t guaranteed a home playoff game in the first round.
History: The Longhorns continue the trend of first-year participants in the championship game. It will be mentioned they enjoyed a favorable schedule (no Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss or LSU) and lost its lone game against a top-tier team (apologies to downgrading Oklahoma this fall) when Georgia won their regular season showdown 30-15 in Austin. The Bulldogs are appearing in their fourth straight SEC title game and still might be smarting from last year’s 27-24 loss to Alabama that ended their drive for a three-peat.
Who to watch: Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner has 812 yards rushing on the season, with 344 coming in the last two games on 5.8 yards per carry. Georgia held him to 52 on 15 tries. Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck (3,429 yards and 28 touchdowns passing) was held to 175 yards and three interceptions by the Longhorns in October.
Presto’s Pick: Longhorns loom large in a 31-27 thriller.
Sun Belt: Marshall (9-3) at Louisiana (10-2), 7:30 p.m., ESPN
The skinny: The Thundering Herd punched their ticket to this game with a double-overtime win at James Madison last weekend just before midnight. That was one of three one-possession November victories needed to win the East Division. The Ragin’ Cajuns are two one-possession games away from being unbeaten.
History: Louisiana is a regular attendee of this game, with three prior appearances in the six years (they qualified for the 2020 title game that was canceled due to COVID). The Ragin’ Cajuns won the 2021 championship. Marshall makes its first appearance in its third year of Sun Belt membership. The Thundering Herd last won a conference title in 2014 (Conference USA).
Who to watch: Keep your eyes on the Marshall defensive line, led by Mike Green who has 16 sacks on the season. Louisiana wide receiver Lance LeGendre might be the Ragin’ Cajun’s top option (44 catches for 733 yards and six touchdowns), but Maryland fans might remember him as the kid who completed 12-17 passes for 108 yards while with the Terps in 2019-20.
Presto’s Pick: I just like to say “Ragin’ Cajuns,” OK? Ragin’ Cajuns win 28-19.
ACC: No. 8 SMU (11-1) vs. No. 18 Clemson (9-3), 8 p.m., Charlotte, North Carolina, ABC
The skinny: After sending thank-you notes by the bushel to Syracuse for the Orange knocking Miami out of this game, the Tigers can still find their way back into the playoff after a three-year absence. The Mustangs look to avoid the Hurricanes’ fate as a loss would put them on the bubble big-time.
History: Clemson boasts a proud tradition as a founding member of the Atlantic Coast Conference in 1953, having won 20 championships while sharing another, most recently in 2022. SMU’s path has been a little different in that time, having moved from the Southwest to the Western Athletic to Conference USA and the American Athletic before joining the ACC this fall. The Mustangs last won their league outright in 1982 and last played in a conference title game in 2009 (lost to UCF for the C-USA championship).
Who to watch: In a matchup of the top two defenses in the league, the Mustangs are led by linebacker Kobe Wilson (95 tackles, three sacks, two interceptions) while the Tigers T.J. Parker boasts 10 sacks on the season, including four in Clemson’s conference regular season finale at Pitt.
Kippy and Buffy have made their annual trip to Charlotte since Virginia won the Coastal Division in 2019 (best friends Henry and Hildy live in the city), and look to celebrate a 2024 that may have been disappointing on the field but more than exceeded expectations on the tailgating front. And when they make the drive south they’re bringing a little of the Commonwealth with them in the form of a bottle of 2019 Linden Vineyards Claret.
“A very complex nose that encompasses dark fruit (blackberries, black raspberries, black currants), and balsam (cedar and cocoa), and herbs (thyme and basil),” the winery website reads. “The palate has brooding dark flavors, but a very restrained and harmonious texture with fresh acidity and dusty, lingering tannins.”
Presto’s Pick: Mustangs tame the Tigers and punch their playoff ticket with a 28-24 win.
Big Ten: No. 1 Oregon (12-0) vs. No. 3 Penn State (11-1), 8 p.m., Indianapolis, Indiana, CBS
The skinny: The winner gets a top four seed while the loser likely hosts a first round game. The Ducks are looking to shed the image of the school with all the uniforms and none of the titles while the Nittany Lions are looking to get rid of their rep as the team that feasts on MAC schools and Big Ten bottom-feeders but starves against top-tier teams.
History: Oregon may be playing in its first Big Ten championship, but the Ducks are no stranger to title games, most recently winning the Pac-12 in 2020. The Nittany Lions last won the Big Ten in 2016. Recent history in the transitive manner: OU beat Ohio State 33-32 at home while PSU lost to the Buckeyes 20-13 at home.
Who to watch: Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel (3,275 yards and 24 touchdowns passing) powers the conference’s top offense while Jordan James (1,166 yards with 13 TDs) provides the counterthreat on the ground. On defense the Ducks’ 39 sacks lead the Big Ten, with Matayo Uiagalelei (10.5 sacks) and Jordan Burch (8.5) doing most of the damage. Penn State’s offensive line keeps Drew Allar upright (league-low 11 sacks allowed) in addition to powering the second-best running game in the Big Ten. Nicholas Singleton (733 yards on 6.1 per carry plus 33 catches for 292 yards, with 11 total touchdowns) can hurt you multiple ways.
Presto’s Pick: Ducks just do it, 27-20.
Last Week: 2-3. Talk about finishing with a flop instead of a flourish.
Season: 76-38.
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