Warmer days might mean a summer payback

Signs of an early spring are everywhere in Washington, but what it means for the summer is up to Mother Nature. (WTOP Photo/Colleen Kelleher)

WASHINGTON – Allergy-sufferers know it’s been a rough season so far, and March has been a warm one, with 14 days of 70-degree temperatures.

While the region enjoys warmer than average temperatures this spring, some worry what it might mean for the coming summer months.

It turns out, according to the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang, predicting the next few months comes down to a numbers game and analyzing historical data.

These are the years Washington had its five warmest months of March:

  • 1921
  • 1945
  • 1946
  • 1977
  • 2000

Based on the weather that followed Washington’s five warmest springs, the Gang found only one of them had a warmer-than-normal summer. And it’s not what many would consider warm, landing at 78 degree average temperature.

Looking beyond March, and examining the whole winter from 1981 to 2010, the Gang found the combination of warmer than normal winters and a warmer March was followed by the warmer than normal summer about 64 percent of the time.

With a warmer than usually spring, odds are in favor that Washington’s summer will be warmer too.

For allergy suffering taking note, the tree pollen count on Thursday was the highest in the past 13 years at 2,124.

WTOP’s Bob Kur contributed to this report. Follow WTOP on Twitter.

(Copyright 2012 by WTOP. All Rights Reserved.)

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