WASHINGTON — College football’s Championship Weekend has arrived, and there are still a handful of teams with a chance to play their way into or out of this year’s College Football Playoff. But some teams are more solidly locked in and others have really no chance this weekend, no matter what the narratives would have you believe.
Ever since last year, we’ve used a prediction model to determine how the committee will vote. The first two times we fired up the model this year, it nailed the top four (the only teams that ultimately matter), essentially in order both times. So, heading into the final set of games Saturday and the resulting final standings Sunday, here’s how the model projects teams for now, which teams need help and which have no chance.
(Getty Images/Chris Graythen)
Getty Images/Chris Graythen
Current model standings
1. Alabama 2. Ohio State 3. Clemson 4. Michigan 5. Washington 6. Wisconsin 7. Colorado 8. Penn State 9. Louisville 10. Oklahoma
Washington only trails Michigan by a hair in the model, so the difference between this and the actual penultimate poll released Tuesday is moot — the Huskies will dictate their fate with their play Saturday. Colorado and Penn State are flipped in real life as well, but the margin is also razor thin between them in the model. The only surprise in the model’s Top 10 is Louisville, but with three losses and no shot at a title game, their placement is irrelevant.
(AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
AP Photo/Brynn Anderson
The locks: Alabama, Ohio State
No matter what happens this weekend — even if Alabama loses the SEC title game, which it won’t — these two teams are getting in. A Penn State win wouldn’t really hurt the Buckeyes in the sense that their lone loss would be by a hair on the road to their own conference champion.
(AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)
AP Photo/Jay LaPrete
Win and they’re in: Clemson, Washington
This is the simplest scenario to set our field of four. Clemson should hold its spot with a victory over Virginia Tech in the ACC title game, and Washington will move ahead of Michigan in the model/solidify their spot in the actual rankings by beating a Top 10 Colorado team in the PAC-12 Championship. That would leave each as a conference champion with a single loss and would likely round out the playoff field.
(AP Photo/Richard Shiro, File)
AP Photo/Richard Shiro, File
Need help: Penn State, Wisconsin, Colorado, Oklahoma
Simply winning Saturday likely won’t be enough for any of these four two-loss teams. The Big 10 champion probably needs a Clemson or Washington loss as well, while Colorado almost certainly needs the Tigers to fall to Virginia Tech to have a chance. Likewise, Oklahoma’s path looks likely to be blocked by one-loss conference champions.
(AP Photo/Raymond Thompson)
AP Photo/Raymond Thompson
No chance: Michigan, Oklahoma State, Florida
As good a season as they had, Michigan’s shot ended in Columbus last weekend. And while Mike Gundy may want to treat Oklahoma State’s officiating error-driven loss to Central Michigan like a win, the Cowboys still LOST AT HOME TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN. Besides, wins over Texas and West Virginia don’t look so great anymore, to say nothing of an 11-point loss to Baylor. Florida, meanwhile, has three losses. Even if they somehow pulled off a miracle against Alabama (again, they won’t), there would be riots if the committee shoved them into the field ahead of teams that didn’t lose by three touchdowns to 7-5 Arkansas.
(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
