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Stop judging baseball after 10 games

Noah Frank | nfrank@wtop.com

April 17, 2015, 3:13 AM

New York Mets (7-3) Bartolo Colon will finish the season 33-0 Colon has made two starts and has won them both. He has left the game with no more than a single run lead each time. His bullpen, missing two top pitchers, has held that lead through the final out. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
AP Photo/Evan Vucci
The Atlanta Braves (6-3) The Braves will finish undefeated on the road Atlanta swept the Marlins in Miami to open the season. Those are the only road games they have played. This is a team that went 37-44 outside of Atlanta last year, then shipped off two of their best hitters, along with their closer, this offseason. (AP Photo/John Amis)
AP Photo/John Amis
Washington Nationals (4-6) Ian Desmond will commit 97 errors No player has committed 97 errors since Bill Keister in 1901, or even as many as 50 since Roy Smalley (51) in 1950. Meanwhile, no team has committed more errors than games played — something the Nats are on pace to do — since the 1993 Colorado Rockies, a team that finished 67-95. The only other team to reach as many as 160 errors over that stretch? The 2000 Montreal Expos, who also finished with 95 losses. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Miami Marlins (3-7) Giancarlo Stanton will not homer this year Stanton mashed an MLB-high 37 dingers in 2014 before a pitch to the face prematurely ended his season, a rate of 14.6 at-bats per home run. He does not have a home run in, excuse me for a second, what was that? Ah, yes. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Philadelphia Phillies (3-7) Aaron Harang will win the NL Cy Young Through his first two starts, the 37-year-old journeyman owns a 0.73 ERA and a .73 WHIP, nearly half the mark he posted last season. He has also not allowed a home run yet, despite allowing the fourth-most in baseball (254) since 2004. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)
AP Photo/Chris Szagola
Chicago Cubs (5-3) Chris Coghlan will lead the team in slugging This Cubs team has young sluggers like Anthony Rizzo and Jorge Soler, with baseball destroyer Kris Bryant coming shortly from Triple-A. Coghlan’s hot start is a pleasant surprise, but it’s only a matter of time before he returns to the pack and gets passed. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
AP Photo/David Zalubowski
St. Louis Cardinals (5-3) Matt Holliday won’t have an extra-base hit It’s actually pretty impressive that Holliday has hit .333 with a .459 OBP in spite of all 10 of his hits being singles. But we’re talking about a player who has had at least 50 XBH every season he’s had 500 plate appearances. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
AP Photo/Jeff Roberson
Cincinnati Reds (5-4) The Reds will never get caught stealing Not only does Cincinnati lead the National League with 12 stolen bases, the Reds have managed all that theft without getting caught. It helps to have Billy Hamilton, who has eight of those 12 himself, but the 24-year-old only ran at a 71 percent success rate last year, leading the league with 23 caught stealings. The Redlegs will run all year, but they’ll also get caught. (AP Photo/Barry Landers)
AP Photo/Barry Landers
Pittsburgh Pirates (3-6) The Pirates will not record a save After logging the second-highest save total in the National League (103) over the past two seasons combined, the Buccos are one of only two teams without a save so far this year. Meanwhile, the Rays lead the league with 6. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
Milwaukee Brewers (2-7) The Brewers will finish last in the league in home runs Milwaukee has hit the fewest home runs hit in the majors with just three. This, after finishing second in baseball with 167 last year and adding Adam Lind (who has one of their three long balls!) at first base. They do have 20 doubles already, so it’s only a matter of time before a few more start going over the wall. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
AP Photo/Jeff Roberson
Colorado Rockies (7-2) The Colorado Rockies will win the NL West Sorry, Rox fans. This team, when healthy, is very exciting. The offense, currently fifth in MLB with a 125 OPS+, may continue to mash. The pitching, currently second in the game with a 2.41 staff ERA, will not. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez
Los Angeles Dodgers (6-3) Adrian Gonzalez will hit 90 home runs The first NL Player of the Week this year, Gonzalez is off to a flying start, leading the league in a host of offensive categories. But he hasn’t eclipsed 30 dingers since 2010, much less three times that total. (AP Photo/Alex Gallardo)
AP Photo/Alex Gallardo
San Diego Padres (6-4) Andrew Cashner will lose every game he starts Cashner was already a bona fide ace before the Padres acquired James Shields this offseason. He’s had a rough start, allowing 15 hits and three home runs in his first two outings to open 0-2. But considering he’s struck out 15 in just 11.0 innings, I have the sense he’ll be just fine. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)
AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi
Arizona Diamondbacks (5-5) Mark Trumbo will lead the team in triples Trumbo, one of the few players to have a home run-oriented nickname in today’s game (the Trumbomb), finally hit his first Thursday night. But he has tripled twice, leaving him just one three-bagger shy of matching his career high. Considering the D-backs have A.J. Pollack and David Peralta, even if Trumbo gets one or two more, he won’t lead this squad. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin
San Francisco Giants (3-8) The defending champion San Francisco Giants will finish last So…this one might actually happen. But it’s still hard to believe that it will, barring a rash of injuries. The Giants won 18 fewer games from 2012 to 2013. If they did that again, they’d finish 70-92, which might just be worse than the Diamondbacks. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
AP Photo/Jeff Chiu
Boston Red Sox (6-3) Mike Napoli will finish with more triples than home runs Napoli has hit 94 home runs and four triples over the past four seasons. This year, he’s got one triple, but no homers. Go figure. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)
AP Photo/Chris Szagola
Tampa Bay Rays (6-4) Logan Forsythe will walk as much as he strikes out Forsythe came into the year with 215 strikeouts and 84 walks in his career, along with a .303 on-base percentage. Right now, he’s got just as many walks (5) as strikeouts and the Rays lead the league in bases on balls. We’ll see how much longer that lasts. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
AP Photo/Chris O’Meara
Baltimore Orioles (5-4) The Orioles will hit 270 home runs Baltimore lost its best power hitter in the offseason and leads the league in home runs. Sure, Camden Yards is a band box, ranking in the top five in home run factor in six of the past eight years. But 270 would smash the single season record of 249 set by the Houston Astros in the height of the steroid era. There will be dingers, but not at this rate. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
AP Photo/Patrick Semansky
Toronto Blue Jays (5-5) The Blue Jays will lose every game decided by one run The Jays have already played three one-run games and lost all of them. Toronto was just 15-20 last year in contests decided by a single run, but they’d take that mark the way 2015 has started for them. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
AP Photo/Patrick Semansky
New York Yankees (3-6) The Yankees will be caught stealing more times than they steal successfully So far, New York is just 4-for-9 on stolen base attempts. The last team not to steal successfully at more than a 50 percent rate was the inaugural 2005 Washington Nationals, who were an even 45-for-90 on the year. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
AP Photo/Kathy Willens
Detroit Tigers (8-1) The Tigers will win every division game Detroit is in first place because it’s a good team playing well in April. The Tigers are also 6-0 against the division, having swept the Twins and Indians. They may well beat up on Minnesota the rest of the year, and could very likely win the division. But no team won even as many as 50 of their 78 division games last year. (Detroit Tigers/AP Carlos Osorio)
Detroit Tigers/AP Carlos Osorio
Kansas City Royals (7-2) The Royals will lead the league in scoring Kansas City finished 14th in runs per game in 2014 and returned almost all its core players this year. They are currently averaging 6.62 runs per game, nearly two runs higher than the MLB-leading Angels last year. (AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt)
AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt
Chicago White Sox (3-5) The White Sox top two hitters won’t draw a walk Through eight games, neither the number one nor number two hitters in the White Sox lineup has drawn a walk. And it’s not like they’re hitting, either. Those two lineup spots have a combined average (and OBP) of just .149. It won’t matter how good Chicago’s pitching is if that continues. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)
AP Photo/Tony Dejak
Cleveland Indians (3-5) The Indians won’t homer at Progressive Field The Indians have hit four home runs this year, but none at Progressive Field. In 2014, Cleveland hit 72 of their 142 home runs in their home ballpark last season. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)
AP Photo/Mark Duncan
Minnesota Twins (3-6) The Twins will finish with less than half the total bases of another team The Twins are bad, yes. But the biggest disparity in total bases last year was between the Rockies at 2,498 and the Padres at 1,810, roughly 38 percent. Right now, Minnesota had less than half the total bases of six teams before Thursday night’s offensive breakout. (AP Photo/Tom Olmscheid)
AP Photo/Tom Olmscheid
Oakland Athletics (5-5) The A’s will only win when holding opponents to one run or fewer Oakland’s had a weird start, winning by counts of 8-0, 10-0, 12-0, 8-1 and 4-0. They’ve outscored opponents 32-1 in wins. Meanwhile, opponents have outscored them just 32-24 in losses. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
AP Photo/Ben Margot
Houston Astros (4-5) Houston will strike out 1,620 times The Astros set the all-time Major League mark for punch outs in a season just two years ago with 1,535, six more than the Arizona Diamondbacks three years prior. But to manage 1,620 would make them the first team in history to average 10 per game, and would shatter the old record by more than a half a K per game. I really hope I’m right that this won’t happen. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)
AP Photo/Pat Sullivan
Los Angeles Angels (4-5) The Angels will never win in Anaheim The Angels haven’t won yet in Orange County this season, after getting swept in their home opening series by the Royals. Maybe it’s karma for naming themselves after a city a full 29 miles away in another county, but they’ll eventually win a game there. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
AP Photo/Jae C. Hong
Texas Rangers (4-6) The Rangers will be hit by 211 pitches Sure, Shin-Soo Choo has a reputation for getting plunked, after being hit 26 times in 2013. But no team in the modern era has drawn more than the 103 HBP the Cleveland Indians did in 2008. That’s less than half the current rate at which the Rangers (and also, weirdly, Royals) are being plunked.   (AP Photo/Brandon Wade)
AP Photo/Brandon Wade
Seattle Mariners (3-6) The Mariners will finish with an ERA over 5.00 Through nine games, somehow the Mariners have the second-worst ERA in baseball. This from a staff that sported a 3.22 mark last season, second-lowest in the American League last year. Don’t expect this stat to last past the weekend. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
AP Photo/Ben Margot
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WASHINGTON — This happens every year.

Every baseball season, as teams enter April with built-in expectations, some teams defy them wildly in the early going. Fans and journalists alike jump to conclusions, even though doing so with such little information flies in the face of everything we know about baseball being a large sample size game.

We are 10 games into the Major League Baseball season, give or take a game for some teams. That is equivalent to roughly one game in an NFL season.

We somehow forget this, though, every year. We draw wild conclusions from small puddles of data, no matter how often history has told us not to do so. I blame football, and the endless overanalysis of it, both before and after every game.

If anyone says to you, “You know, if the season ended today…” punch them in the mouth before they have the chance to finish their sentence.* If the season ended today, the top-seeded Colorado Rockies would host the winner of a New York Mets-Los Angeles Dodgers Wild Card game in the first round of the playoffs. Ergo, nothing matters.

In that vein, here are 30 things that are on pace to happen right now — one for each team — that will not actually occur when the season ends. Seriously, none of these will happen. Write it down.

*Note: Please don’t actually punch your friends in the face. But, like, don’t listen to that idiocy either.

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