Oscar Predictions

Jason Fraley - WTOP Film Critic

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Jason Fraley's Take:


Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway ("Les Miserables")

Who Should Win: Amy Adams ("The Master")

Possible Spoiler: Sally Field ("Lincoln")

Snubbed from Consideration: Nicole Kidman ("The Paperboy"), Maggie Smith ("Best Exotic Marigold Hotel")

While I respect both actresses, Jackie Weaver was one of the weaker parts of "Silver Linings Playbook," and Sally Field was given too much exposition in "Lincoln." Helen Hunt was ballsy for baring all as a sex therapist in "The Sessions," but she's already won for "As Good as it Gets" (1997). This year, the battle will come down to two talented young actresses. Amy Adams literally hypnotized us in "The Master," and after three previous nominations for "Junebug" (2005), "Doubt" (2008) and "The Fighter" (2010), this should be her turn. Instead, the Academy will give it to former Oscar host Anne Hathaway for her heaving prostitute rendition of "I Dreamed a Dream" in "Les Miserables."

Jason Fraley's Take:

Who Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln")

Who Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master")

Possible Spoiler: Alan Arkin ("Argo")

Snubbed from Consideration: Javier Barden ("Skyfall")

The Supporting Actor category is unfolding like a clash of the Titans, as all five are returning Oscar winners. Philip Seymour Hoffman won Best Actor for "Capote" (2005) and now brilliantly brainwashes Joaquin Phoenix in "The Master." Robert DeNiro has won twice for "The Godfather Part II" (1974) and "Raging Bull" (1980), and is now a superstitious football father in "Silver Linings Playbook." Alan Arkin won for "Little Miss Sunshine" (2006) and delivered the hilarious punchline of "Argo." And Christoph Waltz is following his Oscar win for "Inglourious Basterds" (2009) with another Tarantino racial revenge flick in "Django Unchained." Still, I think this year's statue will go to Tommy Lee Jones, who's waited long enough since his win for "The Fugitive" (1993) exactly 20 years ago. His abolitionist Thaddeus Stevens was one of the best parts of "Lincoln," embodying the political philosophy of "the ends justifies the means" and given the film's final twist.

Jason Fraley's Take:

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence ("Silver Linings Playbook")

Who Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva ("Amour")

Possible Spoiler: Jessica Chastain ("Zero Dark Thirty") or Quvenzhane Wallis ("Beasts of the Southern Wild")

Snubbed from Consideration: Marion Cotillard ("Rust & Bone")

Marion Cotillard was snubbed as a double amputee in the French film "Rust and Bone," but I think the best performance of the year came in another foreign film, 85-year-old Emmanuelle Riva as a half- paralyzed stroke victim in "Amour" (2012). Two other nominees survived natural disasters in Naomi Watts ("The Impossible") and 9-year-old Quvenzhane Wallis ("Beasts of the Southern Wild"), but I doubt the Academy will have the guts to give it to a kid this year. Jessica Chastain is a safer bet as Kathryn Bigelow's on-screen proxy in "Zero Dark Thirty," riding a Golden Globe win and previous Oscar nominations for "The Tree of Life" (2010) and "The Help" (2011). However, if the awards are given out like they used to be -- honoring multiple performances in a single year -- 2012 was the year of Jennifer Lawrence, wowing popcorn teens in "The Hunger Games" and off- beat critics in "Silver Linings Playbook." The Academy likes awarding Best Actress to crowd pleasers, so expect this year's football flick to do for Lawrence what "The Blind Side" did for Sandra Bullock.

Jason Fraley's Take

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis ("Lincoln")

Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis ("Lincoln")

Possible Spoiler: Joaquin Phoenix ("The Master")

Snubbed from Consideration: John Hawkes ("The Sessions")

Bradley Cooper showed he's growing as an actor in "Silver Linings Playbook," but shouldn't have been nominated over John Hawkes, who was utterly believable as a virgin in an iron lung in "The Sessions." Denzel Washington was powerful as an alcoholic pilot in "Flight," but the two-time winner ("Glory," "Training Day") won't repeat. Hugh Jackman showed off his pipes in "Les Miserables," but his Golden Globe win came against weak competition in the Comedy/Musical category. And Joaquin Phoenix's brilliantly brainwashed performance in "The Master" made it seem like this might be his year after losing as Commodus in "Gladiator" (2000) and Johnny Cash in "Walk the Line" (2005). But when audiences watched Daniel Day- Lewis literally become Abraham Lincoln on screen, the Best Actor race was over. Last year, I got burned by picking against Meryl Streep ("The Iron Lady") because I thought they might not give her a THIRD Oscar. Day-Lewis faces the same question, and I'm not getting burned again. Expect him to become the first actor ever to win Best Actor three times.

Jason Fraley's Take

What Will Win: "Argo"

What Should Win: "Lincoln"

Possible Spoiler: "Amour"

Snubbed from Consideration: "The Master," "Moonrise Kingdom," "The Dark Knight Rises," "The Sessions," "The Perks of Being a Wallflower," "Rust & Bone"

A few months ago, I would have said "Lincoln," which leads with 12 nominations. But after winning the top prize at both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards, I have a feeling "Argo" will ride the Oscar title wave, making this year more of an underdog "Rocky" (1976) year than a serious "Schindler's List" (1993) year. "Amour" won the year's top art prize, the Palme d'Or at Cannes, but The Academy tends to relegate foreign films to the Best Foreign Language category and forget about them for Best Picture, except for last year's "The Artist" (2011), which avoided subtitles with its silent gimmick.