Follow WTOP’s coverage of Virginia’s 2023 elections.
The upcoming Virginia General Assembly elections will be closely watched by Republicans and Democrats, both looking for an indication of what campaign messages will resonate during the presidential campaign.
All 140 seats are up in the House of Delegates and state Senate this cycle. The election is Nov. 7.
While only a fraction of the races are expected to be highly competitive, the results will be a test run for what issues resonate next year.
One of the most significant issues is expected to be abortion, which had a major role in the midterm elections, following last year’s decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade.
“It’s just going to be interesting to see how that issue plays,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, with the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Kondik said, in previous races elsewhere, at times it appeared Republicans “stuck their head in the sand” and tried to avoid addressing the issue, which has been stressed by Democrats.
“Republicans are not doing that in Virginia and I’m just curious to see if that pays dividends or not,” he said.
Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin has supported a ban on abortion at 15 weeks, while using his political apparatus to funnel money to fellow Republicans across the state.
That is a more moderate proposal than many other governors and state legislatures have supported.
Kondik noted that Virginia is now a state that’s blue, tilting slightly to the left. So if Democratic candidates win, it will be more difficult to know how the issue would play in states that are more purple or red.
“I think Democrats want this election to be about abortion,” Kondik said, pointing out that can be a danger for Republicans if they end up talking about it more than other issues.
The state Senate is currently controlled by Democrats 22-18, which has allowed them to block various initiatives by the governor.
The House of Delegates is controlled by Republicans 49-46.
Youngkin was elected in 2021 and has received a lot of attention for stressing parental rights and more transparency in public education. Republicans have also stressed the issue, along with the need to do a better job of fighting crime.
Education still resonates with many voters, but Kondik said it may not have the political impact it did two years ago during the pandemic.
As for Youngkin, his name keeps surfacing as a possible presidential candidate.
Kondik said the governor is doing what would be expected of him — seeking to get full control of the General Assembly, so he can build his political resume.
But he also noted it’s getting late if Youngkin is seriously considering making a run for the White House.
While he fully understands the interest in this year’s off-year election in Virginia, Kondik is skeptical whether a sweep by either party will resonate nationally a year from now.
If Democrats take control of the House of Delegates, it won’t change the dynamic much since there will still be a Republican governor.
And if Republicans get control of the state Senate?
“Obviously, it would be a huge deal for Virginia itself, in terms of how Virginia is governed,” Kondik said, referring to the possibility that Republicans gain control of the Senate and retain control of the House.
“But I don’t know if the entire country and a Republican primary electorate is going to stand up in rapt attention, that the Virginia legislature flipped to Republicans,” he added.
Kondik noted it would be a nice headline for Youngkin as he considers a presidential run.
Whatever happens, it’s clear that Virginia is once again going to be part of the national political conversation.
