Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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A whopping 10 road teams are favorites in Week 6.
That includes three teams with losing records and two who are winless away from home.
Overall, home field hasn’t been much of an advantage this season. Road teams are 35-37, excluding two international games.
Only Philadelphia, Green Bay and Baltimore are home favorites.
Road or away, Pro Picks likes 12 of 14 favorites this week.
Houston at New England
Line: Texans minus 7
Drake Maye makes his first career start for the Patriots (1-4) against a defense that just held Josh Allen to a 30% completion rate. The Texans (4-1) have 15 sacks and could feast on a rookie quarterback playing behind a woeful offensive line. C.J. Stroud won’t have top receiver Nico Collins and Joe Mixon’s status is uncertain but he still has Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.
BEST BET: TEXANS, 26-16
Jacksonville vs. Chicago, in London
Line: Bears minus 2
The Jaguars (1-4) head abroad for the first of two straight games in London. Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne lead the second-best run offense in the NFL and Trevor Lawrence is coming off his best game of the season. The Bears (3-2) are starting to click on offense behind Caleb Williams’ passing and D’Andre Swift’s running. They should move the ball against a defense that’s given up more yards than everyone except the Colts. Jacksonville has won three straight games in London and must keep winning to have any chance of recovering from an 0-4 start.
UPSET SPECIAL: JAGUARS, 22-20
San Francisco at Seattle
Line: 49ers minus 3 1/2
The 49ers (2-3) have blown two 10-point, fourth-quarter leads against division opponents. The defending NFC champions are missing key starters and keep losing players but are favorites on the road. The Seahawks (3-2) have lost two in a row after a hot start. They’ve lost five straight in the series and Geno Smith is 0-5 on Thursdays. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy is 3-0 on “Thursday Night Football.” Expect Jordan Mason to have a big game on the ground against Seattle’s defense, which has allowed running backs 4.7 yards per carry.
49ERS, 27-20
Arizona at Green Bay
Line: Packers minus 5
The Packers (3-2) won’t overlook the Cardinals (2-3) after Arizona’s surprising comeback win in San Francisco. Jordan Love needs to protect the ball better for Green Bay. He has five interceptions in his three starts. Love will have receiver Romeo Doubs back this week so that should help. The Cardinals can score points with Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr. and James Conner. If their defense steps up as it did in the second half against the 49ers, the Cardinals have a chance.
PACKERS, 27-20
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Line: Colts minus 1
Quarterback Anthony Richardson, Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly and 2021 NFL rushing champ Jonathan Taylor are uncertain again for the Colts (2-3). But they have Joe Flacco, who has excelled, in case Richardson can’t go. Indianapolis’ problem is a league-worst defense. That gives Will Levis and the Titans (1-3) an opportunity get on track after a bye. Tennessee is 0-2 against the spread at home this season.
COLTS, 23-17
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Line: Buccaneers minus 3 1/2
The Buccaneers (3-2) are coming off a gut-wrenching overtime loss to Atlanta and went to New Orleans early to escape Hurricane Milton. Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay’s offense are starting fast but need to finish stronger. The Saints (2-3) have crashed after opening with two routs. They could be missing QB Derek Carr and are playing on a short week following a loss at Kansas City on Monday night. The Saints are 8-4 straight up and 9-3 against the spread in their past 12 games vs. Tampa. The Buccaneers are 9-3 in their past 12 road games.
BUCCANEERS, 19-17
Cleveland at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles minus 9
The Eagles (2-2) had a week off to think about an embarrassing loss to the Buccaneers. They should be focused and eager to go. Jalen Hurts could have more help if receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith return along with Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson. The Browns (1-4) hardly look like last year’s playoff team. Deshaun Watson has struggled and the defense has gone from No. 1 in the NFL to 13th and is giving up 24.2 points per game.
EAGLES, 24-20
Washington at Baltimore
Line: Ravens minus 6 1/2
Lamar Jackson is playing like a two-time NFL MVP, Derrick Henry is the best running back in the NFL and the Ravens (3-2) have come a long way since losing their first two games. The Commanders (4-1) have been impressive behind rookie QB Jayden Daniels. They’ve won consecutive games by 20-plus points but Baltimore presents their toughest challenge yet.
RAVENS, 29-21
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver
Line: Chargers minus 3
Jim Harbaugh vs. Sean Payton is an intriguing matchup. The Chargers (2-2) have lost two in a row. The Broncos (3-2) have won three straight. Yet, Denver is a home underdog. Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert has been hampered by a high right ankle sprain the past two games, and he played behind an offensive line that was missing tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater so a bye week had to help. A stout defense has led Denver’s turnaround while rookie QB Bo Nix is still getting acclimated to the NFL.
CHARGERS, 23-18
Pittsburgh at Las Vegas
Line: Steelers minus 3
Two teams with uncertainty at quarterback face off in a rivalry that goes back to Franco Harris’ “Immaculate Reception.” Justin Fields has been developing for the Steelers (3-2), but the offense is averaging just 18.4 points per game. Once Russell Wilson is healthy to play, coach Mike Tomlin has to make a decision he’s been avoiding. The Raiders (2-3) will have Aidan O’Connell replacing Gardner Minshew. But T.J. Watt still won’t make it a fun day for Las Vegas.
STEELERS, 20-16
Detroit at Dallas
Line: Lions minus 3
The banged-up Cowboys (3-2) are 0-2 at home and have allowed 72 points in those games. And, they had Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Both are out again this week, putting more pressure on Dak Prescott and the offense to outscore Detroit (3-1) in a shootout. The rested Lions put up 42 against Seattle before a bye. They could do that by the third quarter against undermanned Dallas.
LIONS, 33-24
Atlanta at Carolina
Line: Falcons minus 6
Comeback Kirk Cousins has found a rhythm in Atlanta’s offense. The playmakers, especially Darnell Mooney, are getting more comfortable working with Cousins. The Falcons (3-2) just need to avoid overlooking the Panthers (1-4) with tougher games ahead. The boost Andy Dalton gave Carolina seems to have worn off and the defense is giving up 33 points per game.
FALCONS, 30-16
Cincinnati at New York Giants
Line: Bengals minus 3 1/2
Joe Burrow says the Bengals (1-4) aren’t a “championship-level” team right now. He’s right. But they’re better than their record and that’s why they’re favorites on the road against the Giants (2-3). New York is improving behind Daniel Jones and coming off an impressive road win at Seattle without top receiver Malik Nabers and No. 1 running back Devin Singletary. But Burrow and Cincinnati’s offense are heating up and desperately need to save their season.
BENGALS, 27-20
Buffalo at New York Jets
Line: Bills minus 2 1/2
Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich makes his debut after Robert Saleh was fired. The Jets (2-3) need Ulbrich, who was the defensive coordinator, to spark an offense that’s been inconsistent even with Aaron Rodgers under center. The Bills (3-2) have cooled off after a hot start. But they’ve never lost three straight games with Josh Allen. He’s got a tough task facing the league’s No. 2 pass defense.
JETS, 23-20
Last week: Straight up: 8-6. Against spread: 7-7.
Overall: Straight up: 50-28. Against spread: 41-35-2.
Thursday: Straight up: 4-1. Against spread: 3-2.
Monday: Straight up: 4-3. Against spread: 2-5.
Best Bet: Straight up: 3-2. Against spread: 3-2.
Upset Special: Straight up: 4-1. Against spread: 4-1.
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