LEWISVILLE, Texas (AP) — Deep in the heart of Texas’ sprawl, the city of Lewisville embodies the Lone Star State.
Bisected by Interstate 35 and ribboned with six- and eight-lane thoroughfares lined with chain stores, Mexican restaurants and pawn shops, Lewisville, 23 miles north of Dallas, is a prototypical slice of the nation’s second-largest state. Its typical resident is about 36 years old, the same as in Texas. Similar to statewide, 6 out of 10 of its residents are not white, and two-thirds of its voters cast ballots in the 2020 presidential election.
Next door is the city of Flower Mound, a swath of subdivisions with names such as Teal Wood Oaks and Chaucer Estates. Flower Mound looks more like the electorate that has kept Texas dominated by Republicans for decades. It’s wealthier than Lewisville, more than two-thirds of its residents are white, and 78% of them voted in 2020.
That discrepancy between the diverse, potential electorate of Lewisville and the actual, heavily white electorate of Flower Mound has been the subtext for the past two decades of American politics.
For a long time, the presumption has been that closing that gap between Lewisville and Flower Mound — getting more people to vote, and the electorate to better represent the country’s actual population — would help Democrats and hurt Republicans. That’s because a bigger electorate would mean more minorities voting, and those groups historically lean Democratic.
That presumption helped spark the Great Replacement conspiracy theory among some conservatives, imagining a plot to import immigrants to substitute for more conservative white voters. It’s been part of the fuel behind Republican-led efforts to make it tougher to vote, especially in Texas, which has some of the strictest election laws in the country.
But this presidential election has flipped the script.
Republicans have invested in reaching what they believe is a vast population of infrequent, conservative-leaning voters. Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has been counting on support from younger, Latino and African-American voters who are less likely to go to the polls.
Meanwhile, Democrat Kamala Harris is relying on Black and Latino voters, but also on increasing her support among college-educated voters, a growing group that’s both highly likely to vote and helped put Democrat Joe Biden in the White House in 2020.
The contrast is clear in the neighboring cities in north Texas. In high-propensity Flower Mound, Republicans who used to dominate the suburb fear it’s trending Democratic. Meanwhile, in more diverse Lewisville, those who rarely vote or cannot are warming to Trump.
“I think Trump would make a difference,” said Brandon Taylor, 35, who cannot vote because of criminal convictions, but is trying to persuade his girlfriend, Whitney Black, to vote for Trump. “We need that extra vote,” he told Black as the two, now homeless, sat on a bench outside Lewisville’s public library.
Meanwhile, Martha McKenzie, a retired Naval officer in Flower Mound, is a former Republican who left the party over Trump.
“I just can’t get behind a lot of the BS behind Trump,” McKenzie said.
There are, of course, plenty of Harris supporters in Lewisville and numerous Trump voters in Flower Mound. The contrast between the towns goes more to an age-old adage voiced by Sally Ortega Putney on a recent night in a Flower Mound office park.
Putney, 59, recalled spending hours outside Lewisville’s Latino markets trying, unsuccessfully, to find new voters.
“We got our hearts broken trying all sorts of different outreach. The lower class, they don’t have the time, they’re too busy trying to feed their kids,” Putney said between calls that she and two other Democratic volunteers were making to voters.
She gestured around the room: “It’s the middle class that ends up running everything, because we have the time to do it.”
For decades in Texas, that has meant Republicans run things. The party has controlled the Legislature for more than 20 years and won every statewide race since 1994. As the state has steadily grown more diverse, the GOP has taken steps to protect its power.
Texas Republicans have drawn some of the most notorious gerrymanders in the country, reshuffling the lines of state legislative and congressional districts to protect GOP politicians and push the Democratic voters who could oust them into a few oddly shaped districts. That ensures Democrats remain the minority in the Legislature.
Lawmakers in 2021 tightened election laws in response to Trump’s false fraud claims. They banned election offices from holding 24-hour voting after it became popular in a major Democratic-leaning county and prohibited anyone from sending mail ballot applications to eligible voters.
Since then Texas Republicans have continued to push back against a perceived menace of improper voters.
Attorney General Ken Paxton sued two of the state’s largest and Democratic-leaning counties to stop their voter registration drives, and his office raided the homes of leaders of Latino civil rights groups in what it said was an investigation of possible election fraud.
“There’s no question that the design of a lot of Texas’ election laws, both old and new, is rooted in the idea of demographic change and that new voters won’t support the people in power,” said Michael Li, senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice.
Texas already has had recent experience with an upsurge in new voters, however, and it didn’t turn out as badly for Republicans as the party feared.
In 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke challenged Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. The little-known congressman became a national phenomenon for his populist message and get-out-the-vote pushes. He lost 51% to 48%.
Jim Henson, a political scientist at the University of Texas, said the new voters who turned out in 2018 were evenly split between Republicans and Democrats — only slightly more Democratic than the normally conservative-leaning Texas electorate.
“There are untapped voters for both parties,” he said.
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