Measuring confidence
The Conference Board issues its consumer confidence report for November on Tuesday.
Analysts expect that American consumers’ confidence fell for the fourth straight month amid a squeeze from inflation and high interest rates. Consumer spending accounts for around 70% of U.S. economic activity, so economists pay close attention to gauge how it may affect the broader economy. Another drop in confidence wouldn’t bode well for the beginning of the holiday shopping season.
Consumer confidence, by month:
June: 110.1
July: 114.0
Aug.: 108.7
Sept.: 104.3
Oct.: 102.6
Nov. (est.) 101.1
Source: FactSet
Scanning the discounts
Dollar Tree reports its latest financial results on Wednesday, giving investors a glimpse into consumer spending habits at discount retailers.
Wall Street expects the company to report earnings of $1.01 per share, marking a drop from a year ago. Analysts polled by FactSet expect revenue rose to $7.4 billion. Retailers are being closely watched by analysts to get a better sense of how and where consumers are spending money amid lingering worries about the economy.
Inflation insights
The Commerce Department releases its October snapshot of U.S. consumer spending and inflation on Thursday.
The personal consumption expenditure price index, a gauge of inflation that’s closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to continue easing in October. The Fed began aggressively raising interest rates in March 2022 in a bid to cut inflation to 2%. It has held rates steady over its last several meetings as it monitors easing inflation.
PCE Deflator, annual percent change, seasonally adjusted:
May: 4.0
June: 3.2
July: 3.4
Aug.: 3.5
Sept.: 3.4
Oct. (est.): 3.1
Source: FactSet
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