Malaysia made history earlier this month by ousting the longtime ruling party from power in a surprising electoral outcome that caught most observers off-guard. It now faces opportunities and challenges unprecedented in the country’s history.
Democratically deposing Najib Razak, the wealthy leader from a Malaysian political dynasty and former head of the United Malays National Organization , or UMNO, and clearing the way for 92-year-old former Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad to once again lead the government has for the first time removed from power the political bloc that ruled in Malaysia since its independence in the 1950s. The Southeast Asian nation’s government now has a chance to install lasting reforms that will boost its economy and restore public confidence.
The new government formed under Mahathir and his Pakatan Harapan party, or PPBM, faces intense challenges, including re-establishing domestic faith in other levers of power like its ability to exact justice, and reining in a bloated and highly politicized civil service. It must restore checks and balances and prosecute those who allegedly carried out widespread acts of embezzlement and kleptocracy — reportedly including Najib and perhaps other members of his 14-party ruling coalition known as Barisan Nasional — while avoiding acts of excessive political or judicial retribution over scandals like the ongoing investigation into sovereign wealth fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad.
Still, the election sends a message that other autocratically leaning governments may, too, be undone through peaceful democracy, experts and observers say. But the challenges facing Malaysia may just as easily poison those in power once again.
“This is the first time that Malaysia is no longer a dominant-party state. That is profoundly significant,” says Malaysian constitutional law expert Yvonne Tew. “For the first time the country is aware that the government can change, a party can be voted out of power, there is not just the one choice … for those in power to feel a real risk of being able to lose that kind of power.”
Najib, who was first elected as prime minister in 2009, comes from a powerful political dynasty in Malaysia. His father, Abdul Razak Hussein, was the country’s second prime minister and his uncle was its third. Najib employed increasingly harsh methods of maintaining power, experts say, including gerrymandering voter districts, cracking down on domestic dissent and, when he felt political pressure, attempting to buy support from the younger generations like his pre-election effort to eliminate a sales tax for those younger than 26.
While the Malaysian economy grew under Najib’s stewardship, his administration became synonymous with cronyism and kickbacks, particularly within his inner circles, earning him nicknames like “Man of Steal” or “Mr. Kleptocrat.” Najib’s wife Rosmah Mansor amassed a widely publicized collection of hundreds of designer handbags, which frequently drew public ire and comparisons to former Philippine first lady Imelda Marcos’ notorious shoe collection.
Mahathir found political support in the recent election due to his promises for reform, backed up by his deep experience having served as prime minister from 1981 to 2003 with the UMNO party and BN coalition. He also pledged that he would turn power over within two years to Anwar Ibrahim, a former leader of the opposition whom Mahathir first jailed in 1999 reportedly for political reasons and who was released earlier in May from a second detention. In a statement of support after his release the U.S. State Department said “his conviction and detention raised serious concerns about the rule of law in Malaysia.”
Yet Najib may have sealed his own fate as much as his opponent found popular support. As much as 60 percent of members of Nijab’s own coalition reportedly voted against him, and not because they believed in an alternative.
“They don’t believe in the opposition. They wanted to whack him , they really wanted to kill him off politically,” says James Chin, director of the Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania.
Mailed ballots that were still being counted in Malaysia also provide a telling indication of Najib’s crumbling support. Postal votes are usually used by soldiers, special police officers and diplomats — the kinds of civil servants that the ruling administration used to be able to rely upon for support. Hundreds of them voted for the opposition, says Meredith Weiss, a Southeast Asia expert and professor at the University of Albany.
“They vote separately. The assumption was that they are scrutinized when they vote, so they’re absolute rock-solid support for Najib’s party,” Weiss says. “If those voters aren’t voting for Najib, that just signals to me a really massive decline in public support.”
Najib also has played upon Malaysia’s ethnic and religious divides to retain power. Nearly 70 percent of the country’s population is considered ethnic Malay or other indigenous groups. But ethnic Chinese and Indian are large minority groups.
Najib’s UMNO has increasingly relied on ethnic Malaysian support by playing on fears that voting otherwise would cause them to lose their economic and religious privilege, says Pek Koon Heng-Blackburn, a professor at American University’s School of International Service. A “defection of the UMNO rural vote” made Mahathir’s victory possible, she says.
“Najib just put so many obstacles, that we feared we wouldn’t achieve it. We’re absolutely delighted,” Heng-Blackburn says. “The rural support base voted with its pocketbook and not with the fears of being abandoned, or having special privileges abandoned.”
Among the greatest challenges facing Malaysia now is what to do about its civil service. The ranks of public officials and bureaucrats have swelled to more than 1.6 million employees, or roughly one in 10 of the country’s roughly 14 million-strong workforce. As a percentage, they are among the largest in Asia.
“Because it’s been a one-party state for so long…the whole entire civil service behaves like a branch of a political party,” in this case, the UMNO, says Chin. “That’s a very dangerous thing, because they’re very powerful.”
[ READ: The 10 countries seen as the most corrupt.]
Malaysia is also a highly regulated and bureaucratic state, Chin adds. To register a child for local school, for example, parents must first get a federal government identification.
Determining how to trim back that much bureaucratic glut will require deep reforms across the government, he adds, which will be much more complicated than the simple executive actions that Mahathir has already enacted. It’s yet unclear, for example, where the new government will find new streams of revenue, or what the future will be of Chinese pledges for billions of dollars in investment in Malaysian developments and infrastructure that Mahathir promised to review.
The new prime minister, however, has moved swiftly to follow through on campaign promises. Through an executive action he effectively eliminated the new and widely unpopular Goods and Service Tax by lowering it from 6 percent to 0 percent. Observers believe his new coalition in parliament is strong enough to repeal the law eventually.
Among other legislative targets for the new government will be the controversial, some say ” draconian” National Security Act, pushed through parliament in 2016 which allowed security services to crack down much more swiftly on domestic protests, as well as the Anti-Fake News Act, a hasty piece of legislation that allowed the government to arrest people for criticizing the government.
“I don’t think, pragmatically speaking, it’s going to be difficult for the new government to [repeal] some of these laws,” says Tew, who now teaches constitutional law at Georgetown University. “What’s important for the new administration will probably be to show that it is a new administration, that has the right spirit to do these things, as opposed to the practical obstacles.”
“It would only be a matter of practice having a real radical shift in attitude from the previous administration to this one.”
But a looming crisis continues to cast a pall over Malaysian government through the ongoing scandal regarding 1Malaysia Development Berhad, or 1MDB, a sovereign wealth fund that Najib oversaw and unveiled in 2009 as a part of his government’s plan for more domestic development and foreign investments. The U.S. Department of Justice claimed in 2016 that someone had ad embezzled $731 million, with Justice officials’ confirming to The New York Times that the person was Najib. Allegations in The Times’ reports include $250 million being funneled to financier Jho Low, a family friend of Najib’s, among other suspicious dealings.
The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission has already begun grilling Najib about the scandal, with the new government now trying to determine how it can repatriate as much as $4.5 billion that he and his associates reportedly stole.
Najib tried to leave the country for Indonesia shortly after the election but he never appeared at his private jet. Malaysia’s immigration department said that Najib and his wife have “just been blacklisted from leaving the country.” Some reports indicate Najib remains under house arrest.
“That’s something the public would very much want to see,” Tew says, adding that how the new government carries out any subsequent investigation will come under intense public scrutiny. “The current administration wants to be seen as definitive, and it should emphasize constitutional due process procedures are afforded to the previous prime minister.”
Shortly after the election Malaysian police raided properties at night owned by Najib and secured dozens of bags of jewelry and boxes of his wife’s handbags.
“They’re just going full steam on that,” says Weiss. “It’s a little more drama than entirely necessary — nighttime raids are something the [former] opposition used to complain about.”
“That’s pure showmanship. But at the same time, she does have [284] handbags.”
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Malaysia Made History. What Does it Do Now? originally appeared on usnews.com
