The friendly mood between Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron was palpable on Tuesday morning.
“France, and with it Europe and the United States have an appointment with history,” proclaimed the young and largely untested French president on the South Lawn of the White House. “We have but one duty, Mr. President, dear friend : to be at that appointment.”
The clear conviviality the two leaders share — some in the media have called it a ” bromance” — was evident at their opening remarks, but it’s unlikely they will find agreement on a historic collection of critical issues for the U.S. and Europe. Moments before, Trump lauded the recent cooperation with France and Britain to attack a Syrian chemical weapons site, but dedicated much of his remarks to the shared history of the U.S. and France at what he considers “a critical time for our alliance.”
European leaders and the Trump administration appear at odds on relations with Russia, a plan for the future of Syria, trade relations, new tariffs and what to do about the Iran nuclear deal. Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who will visit the White House later this week, have heralded the Iran agreement as a critical tool to rein in Tehran’s nuclear weapons program. But just moments after his public remarks with Macron, Trump again derided the deal in the Oval Office, calling it “a terrible deal” that “should never have been made.”
Iran and trade are of particular concern to the Europeans ahead of two fast-approaching deadlines: Temporary exemptions are set to expire on May 1 for the EU on new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, and European capitals are eager for a continued exemption. And Trump has until May 12 to recertify the Iran deal or that, too, may collapse under U.S. withdrawal, a prospect made more likely by the ascension of hardline Iran hawks Michael Bolton as the new national security adviser and Mike Pompeo as the newly confirmed secretary of state.
“The French have done all they can to tamp down expectations,” says Jeffrey Lightfoot, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. “I’m not looking for any major breakthroughs here, but the one thing I’ll say about this president (Trump) is he can surprise you either way.”
Macron and Trump were scheduled to deliver a joint press conference later on Tuesday. A formal state dinner is scheduled for Tuesday evening, ahead of a address to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday by Macron, a fluent English speaker.
The pomp surrounding the visit of the French leader will contrast against Merkel’s working visit to the White House on Friday, which will be devoid of any comparable ceremony.
Observers shouldn’t read too much into the disparity in their welcomes: Merkel, unlike Macron, is not a head of state and therefore not entitled to such trappings. But it’s clear that Trump has a very different relationship with the French former investment banker who also enjoys strong handshakes versus the German quantum chemist with whom Trump reportedly didn’t speak to for five months before a phone call this week.
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During the welcome ceremony on Tuesday ,Trump inspected a ceremonial honor guard with Macron, considered standard procedure but also a reciprocal gesture after the president’s visit to France last year in observation of a Bastille Day military parade — believed to be the inspiration for Trump’s desire to plan a similar and largely unprecedented military parade in Washington.
More practically, France along with the U.K. contributed militarily to an operation earlier this month to destroy chemical weapons facilities in Syria as retribution for the Bashar Assad regime’s use of chemicals against its own people. Germany, in keeping with its post-World War II reticence for foreign military operations, did not.
“The Macron visit is going to go better than the Merkel visit,” Lightfoot says.
At home, both leaders hope to return with some semblance of progress in their relations with the U.S. The French public is skeptical of Macron’s relationship with Trump but appreciate his outreach as a part of restoring France’s place as an international power and broker. Macron also faces widespread domestic strikes and protests over social service reforms. And in Germany, Merkel has struggled to hold together a new government amid the widespread rise of nationalistic and hard-right political movements both at home and in countries such as neighboring Poland and nearby Hungary.
Yet the pair will arrive in Washington with synchronized messages, forged from ongoing discussions between themselves and with the leaders of the European Union — an institution Trump dismisses as “the consortium” due to his preference for bilateral negotiations. They will both be looking to prod Trump away from tearing up the Iran deal, for continued exemptions on his new tariffs, to reconsider multilateral trade agreements like the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership or T-TIP, for a coordinated plan to offset Russian meddling and for some sort of unity on what to do amid the ongoing bloodbath in Syria.
So far, neither Macron nor Trump has demonstrated an ability to turn their goodwill into something useful.
“They have gotten along at a personal level. That hasn’t necessarily turned into a lot of substance yet,” says Daniel Hamilton, executive director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “Much of it is damage limitation, it is preventing damage to our own relationships because of the differences.”
The U.S. and Europe do not agree on the future of trade following the freezing of T-TIP negotiations, and the new U.S. sanctions against Russia “awakened a particular concern in some parts of Europe” due to the industrial and financial connections between some of the targets and business elsewhere on the continent, including in Germany and France, Hamilton says.
Trump’s decision to strike Syria outside of operations against the Islamic State group confused America’s allies about the extent to which the U.S. is willing to get involved in the Syrian civil war. Top U.S. defense officials speaking as recently as Tuesday morning also would not comment on whether the Pentagon is making any plans or even considering new contingencies for Syria — a point that will likely occupy central focus at the upcoming NATO meeting in July.
“There’s the broader, strategic issue,” Hamilton says, “European allies are confused about what the approach is, and they need clarity.”
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What to Expect From the Macron, Merkel Visits to Trump’s White House originally appeared on usnews.com
