Earlier this month, as the Russian presidential campaign had reached a crescendo, Vladimir Putin unveiled to the world a plan for developing “invincible” nuclear weapons capable of striking Florida in a clear affront to the United States.
The rhetoric was classic Putin and indicative of the strongman, anti-Western political platform he has forged for himself: An alternative to the post-World War II liberal order, conservative, ideological and worthy of Russia’s supposed great power status.
Yet that tone changed sharply after Putin, as expected, won the presidential election on Sunday, securing what has become a Russian leader’s longest tenure since Joseph Stalin.
“Nobody plans to accelerate an arms race,” said Putin, 65, after winning 77 percent of the vote. “We will do everything to resolve all the differences with our partners using political and diplomatic channels.”
Putin’s reaffirmed handle on power serves as both a mandate for him to continue his influential and abrasive practices as well as the catalyst for a series of decisions he must now make — about the future of his own country and its place in the world. And how he proceeds will show whether it’s his blustery campaign rhetoric or magnanimous victory remarks that represent how he envisions Russia’s future.
“The mindset among the Russian population and abroad is, what will come after?” says Agnia Grigas, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center. “What will come in this next six years? What role will Putin take after that, and what conditions will he leave Russia in?”
Turnout in Sunday’s election was less than 68 percent, failing to meet the Kremlin’s reported goal of at least 70 percent participation. And to some, that’s indicative that Russians are growing impatient with Putin’s brand of autocracy and reliance on super rich oligarchs to maintain governance.
“It shows they don’t see a viable alternative today, that they’re apathetic,” Grigas says. “And they fear that things could be worse.”
A series of international issues will soon determine how Russia plans to proceed as a partner on the world’s stage. Moscow and Berlin are in the midst of negotiating an agreement over a new pipeline known as Nord Stream 2 that would connect Russia to Germany, and undercut the reliance on other sources transporting energy resources, including comparable pipelines currently flowing through Ukraine. Lessening the need for stability in Ukraine might allow for Russia to pursue a more aggressive line in the simmering, four-year-old proxy conflict there as pro-Russian separatists fight to break away from the country’s east.
How Russia proceeds in its support for the rebels in Ukraine, as well as its surrogates in Syria, will determine the likelihood of increasing partnerships with European powers, namely Germany and France. And those countries may become more likely to cooperate as they become more frustrated with President Donald Trump’s ” America First” agenda.
“The temptation to rebuild the relationship with Russia is being juxtaposed with growing frustration by European leaders over how Trump runs America,” writes Judy Dempsey, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe. “For some EU leaders the style of governing in the White House is at the expense of strengthening trans-Atlantic ties. Yet those ties are more necessary than ever given China’s growing economic and political clout and Russia’s increasingly disruptive role.”
And it’s yet unclear whether Putin will be able to distract from a stagnant economy at home — largely from ongoing U.S. and international sanctions — by focusing on the restoration of Russia’s standing abroad.
“The whole idea of pride and patriotism has a certain sway, but as the Bulgarians used to say, it doesn’t pay for the cheese,” says Melvyn Levitsky, a former top State Department official for U.S.-Soviet relations, now with the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. “Knowing Russia and Russians, the question of their economic and social position is beginning to take hold a bit. It’s not just the pride of coming back and challenging the U.S. and the West.”
“Frankly, it’s like Trump and his constituency,” Levitsky says. “They’re people who really take pride in Russia coming back into the leadership positions of the world. They like Putin’s persona, and he’s been very careful to cultivate that.”
Victory in this election also prompts Putin to consider his enduring legacy. Indeed, the question of whether Putin will remain in power after his term limit expires in 2024 became a central question in the wake of this most recent election — whether he’ll transition to another position in government but maintain a tight grip on governance as he did during Dmitry Medvedev’s presidential tenure from 2008 or 2012, or whether like Xi Jinping in China, Putin will maneuver himself into becoming president for life and formally break from Russia’s experiment with democracy.
The Chinese ruling Communist Party’s decision to elevate Xi to a lifelong position set a new tenor among countries worldwide with autocratic leanings that they might find greater stability and international clout akin to Beijing’s with a similar move.
Further complicating Putin’s future are the political machinations to stifle dissent and promote loyal oligarchs that have allowed him to carry out crackdowns at home and interference abroad, in war zones like Ukraine and Syria, as well as reported meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
Stepping down from power might leave him vulnerable to prosecution for these activities, either formally in an international court, or otherwise.
“He’s really tied to what he’s doing,” Levitsky says. “Given what his position must be, his basic connection with the fate and future of Russia, he’s not prone to retiring.”
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The Consequence of Vladimir Putin’s Victory originally appeared on usnews.com
