When Snapchat parent Snap dominated headlines Feb. 3 after filing the S-1 for its eagerly awaited initial public offering, it was easy to get excited about the prospects for this hot, fast-growing social media program. But at least investors had to have been thinking, “Man … can’t Twitter Inc (ticker: TWTR) catch a break?
That’s because Snapchat’s IPO is a fresh reminder of all the potential that could be — and everything that wasn’t, in the case of TWTR stock — when it comes to social media offerings. Worse: Snap’s filing comes just days before Twitter’s fourth-quarter earnings report Feb. 9.
So, what could be awaiting Twitter this time around the earnings merry-go-round?
First, Twitter’s most basic problem is expected to persist: The company simply cannot make a profit in the business of tweets. Sure, Wall Street expects TWTR to make 12 cents per share, but that’s using estimates for non-GAAP earnings — and on that basis, Twitter has been operating at a profit for years. However, in the third quarter, Twitter’s non-GAAP earnings came to 13 cents per share … but the company posted a 15-cent GAAP loss. The second quarter was identical.
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Besides, if Twitter does hit its fourth-quarter expectations, that will represent a 25 percent decrease in adjusted earnings, from 16 cents in the year-ago period — and on just 4.2 percent revenue growth to $740.1 million, no less.
This kind of poor operational performance is, in a nutshell, exactly why shares are now down more than 30 percent from Twitter’s IPO price of $26, roughly 60 percent from TWTR’s first day of trading and more than 75 percent below shares’ all-time high near $75 — set in late 2013.
The broader problem, of course, is glacial user growth that’s showing no signs of a meaningful turnaround. For its third quarter, Twitter reported just a 3.3 percent increase in monthly active users — this, during a quarter in which the service was streaming NFL games and now-President Donald Trump’s tweetstorms were giving people a reason to check into Twitter on a daily basis.
That report, by the way, included an announcement that Twitter would be cutting 9 percent of its workforce.
Twitter has been dropping payroll in other ways, though — namely, the voluntary departures of most of its executive positions. Chief Technology Officer Adam Messinger, product VP Josh McFarland and China head Kathy Chen all have departed over the past couple of months. At least at last check, Jack Dorsey still is moonlighting as CEO, when he’s not at his day job as the chief of Square ( SQ), that is.
And while TWTR stock is enjoying a nice 8 percent lift so far in 2017, the stock still is worth about a quarter less than in early October, when Walt Disney Co. ( DIS), Salesforce.com ( CRM) and a host of other parties supposedly interested in buying up the social network apparently got cold feet.
So … does Twitter have anything going for it?
Yes, but even the company’s positives seem to smell a little spoiled. For instance, Twitter did sell its Fabric developer platform to Alphabet ( GOOG, GOOGL) earlier this year in an effort to focus “on our core products and businesses,” which the company certainly needed to do, and which falls in line with its other recent decision to shut down Vine, which Twitter a few days later upgraded to trying to sell Vine.
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But the sale of Fabric, at an undisclosed price, would add the one thing Twitter doesn’t need — cash. TWTR boasts $3.6 billion in cash and short-term investments — more than double what it would need to cover its $1.7 billion in total debt. And Fabric itself will be a great fit with Alphabet’s Firebase team, which makes one wonder: Why didn’t Twitter keep Fabric and use it as an incentive to swallow the whole TWTR elephant?
The one potential bullish wild card is just how fruitful the 2016 election and aftermath have been for Twitter. It’s possible that Trump’s election boosted interaction on the site, especially among his supporters. But Twitter isn’t exactly considered to be a friend of the right, and actions such as banning Brietbart editor Milo Yiannopoulos may have acted as a counterweight to this potential tailwind.
Long story short: There’s a small chance Twitter might have an ace up its sleeve and pop on surprising fourth-quarter earnings. But even then, it’s doubtful we find out anything that shows Twitter is making a meaningful turnaround in its core business.
More earnings in focus
Disney. Disney doesn’t have much of a bar to clear when it reports earnings after Tuesday’s bell. Revenues are expected to tick just a tenth of a percent higher, while profits are projected to decline by about 8 percent to $1.50 per share. But those estimates are less a condemnation of Disney’s operations and more the result of trying to follow up last year’s first quarter, which included “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.” Investors also will be focused on ESPN — not just how much damage the subscriber numbers have taken, but also timing on the previously announced direct-to-consumer streaming service.
Nvidia (NVDA). Can NVDA keep up its ludicrous run? Nvidia stock has sprinted from the high $20s to its current perch around $115 in just a year. However, the graphics chipmaker faces its next obstacle this Thursday after the bell, when it reports fourth-quarter earnings. Analysts expect Nvidia to report top-line growth of 50 percent on a bottom-line explosion of 137 percent to 83 cents per share. At the least, RBC Capital Markets’ Mitch Steves still feels good about Nvidia ahead of the report, upping his price target from $115 to $124 on big hopes for Data Center revenue growth.
This week’s earnings calendar
Monday. 21st Century Fox ( FOXA)
Tuesday. BP ( BP), General Motors Co. ( GM), Michael Kors Holdings ( KORS), Gilead Sciences ( GILD), Mondelez International ( MDLZ), Panera Bread Co. ( PNRA), Twilio ( TWLO), Yum China Holdings ( YUMC), Disney
Wednesday. Allgeran ( AGN), GrubHub ( GRUB), Humana ( HUM), Time Warner ( TWX), Whole Foods Market ( WFM)
Thursday. Coca-Cola Co. ( KO), CVS Health Corp. ( CVS), Dunkin Brands Group ( DNKN), Kellogg Co. ( K), Viacom ( VIAB), World Wrestling Entertainment ( WWE) Yum Brands ( YUM), Activision Blizzard ( ATVI), Expedia ( EXPE), Pandora Media ( P), Yelp ( YELP), Zynga ( ZNGA), Nvidia
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Friday, Feb. 10. ArcelorMittal ( MT)
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Twitter Inc (TWTR) Stock Remains a Huge Disappointment originally appeared on usnews.com
