LONDON — A year ago, Theresa May was heading into her sixth year as the United Kingdom’s home secretary. It’s a cabinet post that’s considered one of the most difficult, because the Home Office’s remit includes the thorny issues of immigration, law enforcement and national security. She was well-respected within the ruling Conservative Party for having survived so long in such a tough job. Nevertheless, back then, May wouldn’t have been on anyone’s short list to eventually become Britain’s premier.
But then stuff happened. And last July, the Tories handed May, 60, the top job of prime minister, after the top candidates to replace David Cameron stumbled and fell. Cameron resigned in the wake of last June’s Brexit referendum, after U.K. voters narrowly decided to pull Britain out of the European Union.
Now May is scheduled to arrive in Washington on Friday to become the first world leader to meet with newly inaugurated President Donald Trump, whose ascension to the Oval Office was also largely unexpected. She already has arrived in the U.S. On Thursday she is attending the congressional Republicans policy retreat in Philadelphia .
Topping the agenda with Trump on Friday is to reaffirm the “special relationship” that’s tightly linked the two allies for more than 80 years, and to discuss the potential for expanded trade between the U.S. and Britain.
But while the Brexit vote received widespread coverage in the U.S., for many Americans, the prime minister is still something of a cipher. So what political and personal skills and attributes does she bring to a meeting that could determine whether the special relationship can survive a president who revels in being gruffly unpredictable and impetuous?
“She’s unstuffy and pragmatic,” says Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London. “She’s a force of calm consideration, not one to talk boldly or take radical actions.”
Which means, as Anthony Seldon says, May and Trump “are strikingly different people.” Seldon, vice-chancellor of the University of Buckingham, is a historian and author of a forthcoming book on relationships between American presidents and British prime ministers.
But the lack of similarity between them may not matter, he says. Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher formed a tight bond despite their disparate personalities, Seldon explains. She was a serious-minded scholar with degrees in chemistry and law, and Reagan was a former Hollywood actor and bon vivant. But the glue that sealed their relationship was a shared conservative ideology.
The problem for May and Trump is, unlike Thatcher and Reagan, they don’t share a system of political and economic beliefs, Seldon says. But, he adds, that may not matter, either. “I think it will be a surprisingly successful summit because of their profound mutual needs.”
For May, the key is trade. Earlier this month, she confirmed that in upcoming Brexit negotiations with the EU, Britain would not seek to remain within Europe’s single market, despite Europe being its largest trading partner, so it can reduce European immigration into the U.K. That means Britain is keen to eventually negotiate trade pacts with myriad other countries, particularly the U.S.
“She needs a trade deal badly, but there are also things he needs,” Seldon says. “Trump needs the imprimatur of a major world figure” to help stabilize his initial shaky standing on the global stage. A good relationship with May, he says, can provide him with some much-needed ballast.
Formal trade talks between the countries cannot begin until the U.K. has fully withdrawn from the EU, which may be years away. But Trump has already said he hoped a U.S.-British trade deal can be done “very quickly.” Then again, Trump, who pulled the U.S. out of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement this week, has also embraced protectionism and says he wants trade deals that put America first.
That kind of rhetoric “must sound ominous to May, who in heart is a free-trader,” Bale says.
But, Bale adds, May isn’t likely to keep quiet if Trump says things during their meeting she thinks are wrong, on trade or any other issue. NATO is a good example. The U.S. president has expressed skepticism about the Atlantic military alliance, but the British prime minister is a solid vocal supporter of the organization.
Seldon agrees with Bale: “If he says things she disagrees with, she will tell him. She won’t press him overly hard, but she will be firm and clear.” Whether Trump is willing to listen to criticisms, even when they come from the leader of America’s greatest ally, could determine if the special relationship has a future.
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Theresa May’s Visit with Donald Trump Is About What Each Needs originally appeared on usnews.com
