MUNICH — Uli Henkel had always been a longtime supporter of Angela Merkel, the three-term chancellor of Germany. That was before Merkel opened the country’s doors to what are now 1.4 million asylum seekers receiving social benefits. Henkel, a 61-year-old attorney in Munich, says he believes those refugees are mostly economic migrants.
“She made her oath on our constitution and said ‘I will serve my people and my country,'” Henkel says of Merkel. “But in reality she tries to be a good person to the world, while forgetting about her own citizens.”
Such attitudes have Merkel’s coalition government worried as it prepares for national elections next year. Views like Henkel’s also explain the rapid rise in popularity of the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany, or AfD.
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In a nation that has eschewed nationalist politics since the end of World War II, the AfD has experienced a sharp rise in popularity since its recent, humble beginnings. The reasons, analysts say, echo those that led to the victory of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
“Many people didn’t feel represented by any of the established parties,” says Carsten Koschmieder, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin. “Now they feel that they’ve finally found a party that represents their views.”
During this year of global populism, the ascent of far-right politicians across Europe has received widespread coverage in recent weeks. But the speed at which the AfD has risen, coupled with the country’s tragic history with nationalist politics, place Germany in an entirely unique space.
The AfD was established in 2013. Its founders were economists, preaching reform of the eurozone in the wake of a debt crisis that led to the bailouts of several European countries, costing Germany billions.
By 2015, the party had shifted decidedly right, making opposition to immigration its primary issue in the heat of Europe’s refugee crisis. Nearly 1 million asylum seekers flocked to Germany that year alone, following Chancellor Merkel’s proclamation that her country would provide refuge to anyone coming from Syria, and to others seeking protection from war and violence.
Germany soon became the most popular destination for refugees in Europe. Merkel’s open-door policy made her the darling of both domestic and international media. Yet that praise masked a growing wave of anti-immigrant and anti-Islamic resentment brewing among German citizens who felt betrayed by their government.
The AfD was the only party to embrace that resentment, leading its original founder and other leaders to leave the party over what they considered a move toward xenophobia and populism. Some of the more eyebrow-raising statements from AfD chairwoman Frauke Petry — for instance, she suggested that German police should be able to shoot migrants who try to enter the country illegally — have earned her the nickname “Adolfina.”
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Such views are increasingly common in Europe. A study released earlier this month that focused on European Union countries found that as the proportion of a nation’s immigrant population rises, so do populist political views.
The transformation of the AfD into an ultra-nationalist party is exactly what has led so many former non-voters and former supporters of Angela Merkel and her coalition party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), into the arms of the AfD.
Three years since its founding, the AfD now holds seats in 10 of Germany’s 16 state parliaments, up from five one year ago. The party will seek its first national seats in next year’s federal elections, to be held by next autumn. The latest polls predict the AfD securing 16 percent of the national vote. Analysts say they will likely become Germany’s third-largest party.
The increasing popularity of the AfD, and its newfound support from so many Germans who used to favor Merkel and her party, has led the chancellor to shift to the right, analysts say.
Merkel’s proposal last week to ban the burqa is just the latest example of this rightward trend.
“We have refugees being sent back to Afghanistan, and we have the deal with Turkey,” says Koschmieder, referring to an agreement designed to stem the flow of refugees. “Merkel’s basically established that we have no more refugees coming here. So she’s definitely changed since last autumn [when she issued her initial refugee policy]. That absolutely has something to do with the rise of the AfD.”
While there are major differences, there are strong parallels between AfD supporters and the people who supported Donald Trump, whose popularity shocked the U.S. establishment and the media.
“I see this country being close to the edge,” says Henkel, echoing a theme of Trump’s campaign. Referring to Trump’s election, he said, “Of course it helps us, because a lot of people will not be so afraid anymore of doing something unusual. We have the silent majority here too, and I’m quite sure that a lot of people are thinking now that if the Americans can do it, we can do it, too.”
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Angela Merkel’s Most Serious Political Challenge Comes From the Right originally appeared on usnews.com
