Prof who predicted 2016 outcome says Trump ‘vulnerable’ to impeachment

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Allan Lichtman discusses his new book 'The Case for Impeachment' on WTOP

WASHINGTON — The American University professor who accurately predicted President Donald Trump’s surprise Election Day victory last fall — and every presidential contest since 1984 — now says Trump is “vulnerable” to impeachment.

And Allan Lichtman says his analysis of the history of past impeachments backs him up.

“The Case for Impeachment,” Lichtman’s 300-page treatise on the possibility Trump’s removal from office, hit bookshelves last week and is currently one of the 500 best sellers on Amazon.

“I base it on a deep study of the history of impeachment, the process of impeachment, the history of Donald Trump prior to his presidency, and an analysis of the early weeks of his presidency,” Lichtman told WTOP. “And what I discovered was that Donald Trump is vulnerable on eight possible grounds for impeachment and removal, making him more vulnerable to impeachment than any first-term president in the history of the nation.”

Lichtman cited potential conflicts of interest stemming from Trump’s business interests and the congressional investigation into links between the Trump campaign and Russia.

Lichtman insisted his impeachment analysis is not political or partisan.

“I don’t quote any Democratic critics of Donald Trump,” Lichtman said.

Still, Republican congressman-turned-TV-commentator Joe Scarborough has dubbed Lichtman’s book “liberal catnip.”

Unlike his election-prediction system, which is based on a 13-point model that factors in the economy and foreign policy, Lichtman’s impeachment prediction is not based on any formula.

“You can’t develop a formal model. There haven’t been enough impeachments to derive a statistical test,” he said.

Only two U.S. presidents — Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998 — have been impeached, and both were acquitted by the Senate.

Instead, Lichtman said, he compared Trump to other incoming presidents, finding similarities to Richard Nixon, who ultimately resigned in 1974 after the Watergate scandal engulfed his presidency.

“Both men share this idea that they’re beset by enemies, that they’re at war with the press, that they’re at war with the establishment,” Lichtman said.