Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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Week 13 features only three games between two teams with winning records. All three matchups are on Sunday.
Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry face off when the streaking Philadelphia Eagles (9-2) take on the Baltimore Ravens (8-4) in a potential Super Bowl preview. Barkley leads the NFL with 1,392 yards rushing and Henry is next at 1,325.
The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) visit the Atlanta Falcons (6-5) in a matchup between first-year coaches who’ve turned their teams around.
Two surprise teams meet when the Minnesota Vikings (9-2) host the Arizona Cardinals (6-5).
It’s a full schedule with no byes, beginning with three games on Thanksgiving and another on Black Friday.
Five road teams are favorites, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. Pro Picks aims for another winning week.
New York Giants (2-9) at Dallas (4-7)
Line: Cowboys minus 3 1/2
The Giants are a total mess. General manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll are barely hanging onto their jobs. Drew Lock could become the third starting QB in three games. Standout rookie receiver Malik Nabers called his team “soft” after they played like a group that’s quit last week. The Cowboys aren’t much better, though they fought hard in an upset win at Washington. Cooper Rush had his best game filling in for Dak Prescott. A soft schedule has Dallas thinking the playoffs aren’t out of reach. The Cowboys can’t overlook New York. They’re 0-6 in their past six home games but have won seven straight matchups vs. the Giants.
BEST BET: COWBOYS: 26-17
Los Angeles Rams (5-6) at New Orleans (4-7)
Line: Rams minus 2 1/2
The Saints are 2-0 under interim coach Darren Rizzi and are coming off a bye with a chance to keep their playoff hopes alive. An offense that was unstoppable in the first two games this season is getting back on track thanks to an improved run game and back-to-back sharp outings from Derek Carr. Alvin Kamara should be excited to get the ball against the Rams, who just gave up 255 yards rushing to Saquon Barkley. Los Angeles needs to protect Matthew Stafford better and give him time to get the ball to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
UPSET SPECIAL: SAINTS: 24-23
Chicago (4-7) at Detroit (10-1)
Line: Lions minus 9 1/2
The Lions have lost seven straight games on Thanksgiving, including three times to the Bears. It would be a major upset if that happens again. Detroit has won nine straight games since losing to Tampa Bay in Week 2. The Lions are not only winning but dominating opponents with six victories by a double-digit margin during their streak. Jared Goff leads a prolific offense while the defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown the past two games. The Bears are trying to snap a five-game losing streak. Caleb Williams hasn’t thrown a pick in 193 passes. Detroit is 15-3 against the spread in its past 18 division games and 8-1 ATS in the past nine games overall this season.
LIONS: 31-19
Miami (5-6) at Green Bay (8-3)
Line: Packers minus 3 1/2
Tua Tagovailoa suffered a season-ending concussion the previous time the Dolphins faced Green Bay on Christmas Day in 2022. He has 11 TDs and only one interception in the five games since returning from his latest concussion and has led Miami to three straight wins. The Packers face a tough test in the middle of a stretch where they play three games in a 12-day span with a showdown against the Lions looming next Thursday. Jordan Love has bounced back from two rough games to play two solid ones. He’ll face a strong challenge against Miami’s top-10 defense.
PACKERS: 23-21
Las Vegas (2-9) at Kansas City (10-1)
Line: Chiefs minus 13
The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs keep finding ways to win barely. They’ve won 12 straight games decided by seven points or fewer, the longest streak in NFL history, and have won five games decided on the final play this season. Patrick Mahomes is the difference-maker in many of the close ones. Kansas City could use a rout. The struggling Raiders provide an opportunity for a lopsided victory. Las Vegas has lost seven straight and lost quarterback Gardner Minshew last week. The team will turn to Aidan O’Connell back off injured reserve to start on Black Friday. The Chiefs are due for an easy one, but they’re 0-5 ATS in the past five games.
CHIEFS: 27-16
Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) at Atlanta (6-5)
Line: Chargers minus 2
The Chargers hit the road on a short week after losing the “Harbowl” at home to the Ravens. Their offense could be without running back J.K. Dobbins and the defense has allowed 57 points in the past two games after giving up just 13.6 per game the previous five. Meanwhile, the rested Falcons are coming off a bye and eager to snap a two-game losing streak to maintain their hold on first place in the NFC South.
FALCONS: 23-22
Pittsburgh (8-3) at Cincinnati (4-7)
Line: Bengals minus 3
The AFC North-leading Steelers are road underdogs following a road loss at Cleveland. Russell Wilson has been hitting his deep throws but needs better protection. A usually stingy defense that couldn’t make stops against Jameis Winston in the snow now has to contain Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The underachieving Bengals need to stack wins to have any shot at climbing back into the playoff race. Cincinnati is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite this season.
BENGALS: 24-23
Arizona (6-5) at Minnesota (9-2)
Line: Vikings minus 3 1/2
Stout defense and solid play by QB Sam Darnold has helped Minnesota become the surprise team in the NFL this season. Only the Lions and Chiefs have a better record. The Cardinals are in a four-way battle in the NFC West. A disappointing offensive performance led to their four-game winning streak being snapped. It won’t be easy for Kyler Murray and Co. to score against the Vikings.
VIKINGS: 23-17
Indianapolis (5-7) at New England (3-9)
Line: Colts minus 2 1/2
It’s no longer Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning in this rivalry. Anthony Richardson and Drake Maye go head-to-head in a matchup between young QBs taken in the top five of the draft over the past two seasons. The Colts can’t get their offense and defense to play well in the same game. That could turn around against the lowly Patriots.
COLTS: 20-16
Seattle (6-5) at New York Jets (3-8)
Line: Seahawks minus 2
Geno Smith faces the team that drafted him after turning his career around on his fourth stop and going to the Pro Bowl the past two seasons. The Seahawks are fighting for the playoffs while the Jets have fallen apart. Their coach and GM already have been fired. Aaron Rodgers’ future is uncertain. Yet, the team still has plenty of talent.
SEAHAWKS: 20-17
Tennessee (3-8) at Washington (7-5)
Line: Commanders minus 6
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have hit a detour on their road to the playoffs, losing three straight games. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s offense has stalled during Washington’s recent skid. The Titans are coming off a big upset in Houston and Will Levis has asserted himself since returning from an injury a month ago. Tennessee has the No. 2 defense in the league so it’ll be tough for Daniels and the Commanders to get back on track in this one.
COMMANDERS: 24-17
Houston (7-5) at Jacksonville (2-9)
Line: Texans minus 4 1/2
C.J. Stroud and the Texans are having some issues this season. Not even close to Jacksonville’s troubles, though. The Jaguars could have Trevor Lawrence back after he missed two games. That won’t be enough. Houston has won 11 of the past 13 games vs. Jacksonville. The Texans are 2-6 ATS in their past eight games vs. AFC opponents. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their past five games.
TEXANS: 24-20
Tampa Bay (5-6) at Carolina (3-8)
Line: Buccaneers minus 6
Panthers coach Dave Canales has the team playing better and Bryce Young is showing some of the potential that made him a No. 1 overall pick. Canales’ familiarity with Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay’s offense should help Carolina’s defense. The Buccaneers can’t afford a letdown as they try to make a push to get back in the playoff race. They’re getting key players healthy, their three-headed rushing attack has added balance to the offense and the defense needs to build off a solid performance last week.
BUCCANEERS: 24-20
Philadelphia (9-2) at Baltimore (8-4)
Line: Ravens minus 3
Both teams are coming off impressive wins in the same stadium in Los Angeles one night apart. The Ravens had shorter rest following the Monday night win. Barkley has been a sensational addition for the Eagles. Henry has made a major impact in Baltimore. Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson go head-to-head for the first time. The Ravens have won two in a row in the series. Philadelphia has the better defense and that could be the difference.
EAGLES: 26-23
San Francisco (5-6) at Buffalo (9-2)
Line: Bills minus 7
The inconsistent 49ers need Brock Purdy, Trent Williams and Nick Bosa back from injuries. The defending NFC champions have lost two in a row, but they’re only one game back in their division. The rested Bills have won six in a row and are coming off a bye. Josh Allen in the MVP favorite and Buffalo can clinch another division title this weekend.
BILLS: 26-23
Cleveland (3-8) at Denver (7-5)
Line: Broncos minus 5 1/2
Maybe Jameis Winston gets to play in the snow again. Winston has reinvigorated the Browns, though too late for it to matter this season. Rookie QB Bo Nix has helped turn the Broncos into a playoff contender with plenty of help from receiver Courtland Sutton and a strong defense.
BRONCOS: 23-19
Last week: Straight up: 9-4. Against spread: 8-5.
Overall: Straight up: 121-68. Against spread: 97-80-2.
Prime-time: Straight up: 28-12. Against spread: 21-18-1.
Best Bet: Straight up: 8-4. Against spread: 7-5.
Upset Special: Straight up: 7-5. Against spread: 7-5.
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