WASHINGTON — If you like cloudy, muggy and gloomy weather then this week is your week. Fortunately, temperatures will be held at bay, only reaching into the lower to mid-80s for daytime highs Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
But the humidity will continue to stream into the WTOP listening area as the region is wedged between an area of high pressure to the north and an area of high pressure to the southwest.
Take a peek at the graphic below.
(Courtesy of The National Weather Service Baltimore-Washington)
A frontal boundary will continue to drape across our region as it meanders in the vicinity of central Virginia and the D.C. metro area at least through Thursday. That frontal boundary will be the main force for any showers or small thunderstorms that pop up around the region Tuesday afternoon. This generally means any rain that pops up will be around the stationary front, getting caught up in our easterly flow, and preside mainly just south of the Washington D.C. metro area on Tuesday.
Unfortunately, since there is so much moisture and no element moving these cells along quickly, there could be isolated downpours. Good news is that I don’t anticipate any widespread severe weather for Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.
The frontal boundary is just to the south of Washington, D.C. on Tuesday afternoon, draped across Fredericksburg through Southern Maryland and back to the west around the Eastern West Virginia Panhandle.
If you are headed out to Nats Park today, just know it will be a little on the steamy side. But I do believe we’ll remain dry. Plenty of clouds will stick around through the duration of the game as temperatures drop through the 70s. There could even be some areas of fog that form while you make your way home from the stadium.
Overnight temperatures will only fall to around 70 degrees in most locations and warm back up into the mid-80s again tomorrow. There could be a few peeks of sunshine again tomorrow but an upper level low, diving out of the northwest, will head this way.
A piece of energy out in front of that low will move into the region Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. This means we have a good chance to see some showers and thunderstorms around the listening area.
Most of the activity will die off in the evening hours as we lose our heating from the day but there is a about a 20 percent chance that a few showers or storms could linger into the late evening hours leading into Thursday.
By Thursday morning, that upper level low (reference the first graphic from the National Weather Service for more information on the upper level low) will be nearing our area, crossing through during Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. That will bring us yet another chance of some showers and thunderstorms. This time, there is about at 50 percent chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms around the region on Thursday.
The best chance for a good, soaking rain comes on Thursday but all in all expect less than a 1 inch from Tuesday through Thursday night. This will be good, especially if you have found yourself sniffling a little through the weekend and into the first part of this week. Around the D.C. region mold, grasses and weed pollen are all running a little on the elevated side. So it will be good to get some rain to wash that away.
QPF or Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows 1 inch or less of rain accumulation around the WTOP listening area from Tuesday through early Friday morning. (NOAA)
Due to the rain that we received through the first half of August, we are well above our normal averages for rain during the summer (June – Aug. 19) at Reagan National Airport as well as Baltimore-Washington Airport. In fact, the rain that fell on Tuesday, Aug. 12 put BWI 4.38 inches above their normal rainfall amount for the summer. Dulles International Airport could still use some rain however, as they are behind a little above 1.5 inches for rain accumulation for the summer months.
And while we are at it, to be completely honest, I’m still not sold on keeping dry from Friday through the weekend. I’ve continued to have it dry in my forecast for the last two days but I believe it’s going to be a “wait and see” game to know if the pattern sticks through Friday and into the weekend, or to see if high pressure can edge out bringing some more pleasant conditions.
Either way, we will keep an eye on it for you and let you know as the picture becomes more clear.