As the Trump administration’s tariff negotiations continue behind the scenes, you may be wondering if and when you’ll start to see changes in grocery store prices. The fact is that the United States imports about 15% of its overall food supply, according to the Food and Drug Administration, so it’s feasible that some of those tariff costs could be passed on to you.
If you’re worried about this, you’re not alone. Around 57% of consumers said they were concerned about increased tariffs on imported food specifically, according to an April survey by The Food Industry Association.
Breaking it down further, they were most worried that grocery prices would increase (75%); about the availability of grocery items (57%); and about affording groceries (57%).
Depending on your shopping habits, some grocery items may indeed increase, but planning ahead and shopping strategically can help. Here are the key items to watch, along with expert tips on how to manage costs effectively.
Produce
“Americans have gotten very used to being able to access fresh fruits and vegetables year-round, regardless of their growing season. To do that requires global supply chains,” says Rita McGrath, academic director in executive education at Columbia Business School.
In fact, according to the FDA, more than 200 countries and territories supply approximately 32% of the fresh vegetables and 55% of the fresh fruit that we consume in the U.S. “So if these categories are subject to tariffs, consumers can expect prices to go up — and relatively quickly as these things are perishable,” McGrath says.
One positive to note is that produce from Canada and Mexico is currently exempt from tariffs under the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement (USMCA), shielding items like avocados from immediate price spikes.
To stave off other produce price increases, buying based on seasonality and looking for U.S.-grown options can help, says money-saving expert Andrea Woroch. “Check where produce is from or shop at your local farmer’s market to save,” she says.
In an era of increased costs, more people may consider taking up gardening, McGrath says. “We might see a resurgence of World War II style ‘victory gardens’ when people were encouraged to grow food to support themselves and also the war effort.”
[READ: How Much Should I Spend on Groceries?]
Seafood
As much as 94% of seafood that Americans consume is imported. According to the National Fisheries Institute, tariffs are likely to impact the price of shrimp, salmon, canned tuna and tilapia, which are the four most popular seafood products in the U.S.
Shoppers might look to source their fish locally, and buying frozen fish and canned seafood from warehouse stores can help families save — but the industry is complex.
“Fish caught all over the world, including in the U.S., get shipped to China for boning, skinning and filleting, then shipped back to the U.S. for final sale, raising the interesting possibility that the tariffs could be applied twice, which could kill that practice,” McGrath says.
Coffee
The U.S. gets most of its coffee from Brazil, which currently has a 10% tariff. Although that isn’t too exorbitant, it could still increase the cost slightly, and given how much coffee Americans consume and the limited local options, it could be a significant issue.
“‘Buy American’ does not work as a strategy for avoiding tariffs on coffee,” says Heather Perry, CEO of Klatch Coffee and former President of the Specialty Coffee Association. Though a small amount of coffee is grown in Hawaii, she adds, it’s not enough to meet demand.
However, Perry is hoping that coffee gets a tariff carve out.
“Because there is almost no domestic industry to protect in the coffee space, the National Coffee Association is advocating that coffee should be exempt from tariffs, a measure we support and are optimistic will be implemented. This would provide price relief to importers, roasters and consumers,” she says.
[Read: How to Save Money When Grocery Shopping on a Budget]
Packaging Costs Could Drive Up Pantry Items
Beyond the fresh ingredients themselves, other materials used in packaging can drive up grocery costs, Woroch says. She points out that 10% to 25% tariffs have been imposed on metals like aluminum and steel, which could make canned foods more expensive, for example.
Other Grocery Staples to Watch
Rice: More than 25% of rice consumed in the U.S. comes from other countries, like jasmine rice from Thailand and basmati rice from India. Tariff rates in those countries currently stand at 36% and 26%, respectively, which can drive Americans away from aromatic rice options to long-grain white rice produced domestically.
Pork and poultry: These are categories in which Americans could actually see a price drop, says McGrath, which can help offset some of the increases. “America actually exports a lot of pork and poultry, so if those export markets dry up and producers have to sell them at home, the prices on those commodities could actually go down.”
Miscellaneous: Don’t be surprised if some prices increase just because. “There is a thing called ‘industry price gap management,’ which means that even if a supplier isn’t subject to tariffs, but their sector is raising prices, they might do so as well just because, well, they can,” says McGrath.
[Read: Is Organic Food Worth the Extra Cost?]
How to Manage Increasing Grocery Prices
To keep your grocery bills within your budget amidst potential tariff price increases, try these tactics.
Check the big stores: Both Walmart and Costco provide day-to-day staples, so they are less likely to suffer from tariffs, McGrath says. “Walmart in particular has been known to throw its muscle around, insisting that its Chinese suppliers eat the cost of the tariffs so that Walmart shoppers aren’t stuck with the bill,” she says.
Adjust your shopping patterns: Some consumers have already altered their shopping habits in response to inflation, and that approach can be helpful moving forward, too. According to InMarket’s Q1 2025 Grocery Staples InSights, more than one in five people turned to dollar and discount stores for laundry and cleaning supplies in 2024. And the share of total coffee spend at club stores increased 21% from January 2024 to December 2024, shifting market share from grocery and big-box stores.
Go for private label: Woroch says that choosing store brands can mean 30% to 50% savings for some products. And some of the big-box stores and supermarkets are ramping up their private-label offerings to appeal to budget-conscious consumers. For example, the InMarket report explains that Target’s Dealworthy label has more than 400 everyday basic items, mostly $10 or less, and Walmart’s Bettergoods label offers around 300 items, many below $5.
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How Trump’s Tariffs Might Affect Your Grocery Bill, and What to Do About It originally appeared on usnews.com
